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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Switch in Japan: 2018 vs. 2019 - Final Results

Amnesia said:
peachbuggy said:

Is this because of last weeks' Famitsu numbers which are usually published around about now? I've been looking for them and haven't seen any yet.

Even with Yokai 4, the Switch is significantly decreasing in sales. Price cut and/or Switch 2 is necessary to just maintain sales.

YW4 couldn't shine since Nintendo announced a promo for the next week, so many postphoned the sales until this week. Or why do you think Switch had it's worst week when YW4 came out? Even with it's decline it would still have pushed sales up, not down.

@bolded: Seriously? I think you'll get some nasty surprise then next weeks.



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The market is already preparing for a new switch. Regardless if Nintendo wants to keep pretending it's still a secret.



Amnesia said:

Even with Yokai 4, the Switch is significantly decreasing in sales. Price cut and/or Switch 2 is necessary to just maintain sales.

That is quite a statement in of itself. 

"We've had declining sales for a snapshot of time, we must drastically cut the price or release a new system! Damn the fact titles that will push millions of consoles worldwide are coming in weeks, we must act now!"



Cubedramirez said:
Amnesia said:

Even with Yokai 4, the Switch is significantly decreasing in sales. Price cut and/or Switch 2 is necessary to just maintain sales.

That is quite a statement in of itself. 

"We've had declining sales for a snapshot of time, we must drastically cut the price or release a new system! Damn the fact titles that will push millions of consoles worldwide are coming in weeks, we must act now!"

You are not serious and you don't take what I am saying in the correct way. I am not saying at all that it is over for the Switch now, I am just saying that the maximal point of the demand is just a bit behind us.



Amnesia said:
Cubedramirez said:

That is quite a statement in of itself. 

"We've had declining sales for a snapshot of time, we must drastically cut the price or release a new system! Damn the fact titles that will push millions of consoles worldwide are coming in weeks, we must act now!"

You are not serious and you don't take what I am saying in the correct way. I am not saying at all that it is over for the Switch now, I am just saying that the maximal point of the demand is just a bit behind us.

While he's overdramatizing, he's basically saying that that's not the case just yet.

Like I said in this week's famitsu thread, Juli was packed with great games last year, so it's possible the Switch will continue to loose a bit over that period, but that should level out over august and then starting September get completely reversed even without a pricecut or new Switch model.

Tl;dr: It's down because a lack of games compared to what we got around that period last year. It will be up again when the games are rolling in.



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Week 26 Numbers have just been posted. Super Mario Maker 2 came out on this week... and it shows! Hardware spiked up over 30k from the week prior and right at the midway point.



Now that we are at the half-way mark, let's bust out some mathematics and calculations.
At this point last year, the Nintendo Switch sold through 0.33527482 of its full 2018 total (3,482,388). If we apply that same percentage to how much the Switch house sold so far this year, then it would be on track to sell through 4,425,915 units in 2019. A rise of almost 1 million units, Year over Year.



Week 27 numbers have been posted and the Switch got yet another spike! It's now grown to it's biggest lead over 2018 yet.



With the announcement of the Nintendo Switch Lite, it's going to be very interesting to see how the next 11-12 weeks of data will play out. Obviously, we can expect to the Switch baseline to dip pretty low as many consumers are now going to hold on their purchase and wait for the Switch Lite. The only questions are: How low? And did Nintendo announce the Switch Lite too early?



PAOerfulone said:
With the announcement of the Nintendo Switch Lite, it's going to be very interesting to see how the next 11-12 weeks of data will play out. Obviously, we can expect to the Switch baseline to dip pretty low as many consumers are now going to hold on their purchase and wait for the Switch Lite. The only questions are: How low? And did Nintendo announce the Switch Lite too early?

Since the preorders ain't up yet, I just expect a moderate loss of speed for now. However, once you can order the Switch Lite, sales should tank for a while... and then go through the roof once the Lite is out.

I expect the lead to shrink only to about 200-250k until the Lite comes out, but regrow very quickly afterwards