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Predict 2019 Japanese Sales (PS4/Switch Only)

Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict 2019 Japanese Sales (PS4/Switch Only)

NS:3.5m
PS4: 1.3m

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Switch: 4.5m
PS4: 1.35m

With lineup Switch is getting this year, very possible price cut and revision, I don't see possibility Switch selling less than 4m in worst case.



In my opinion the Switch would do around 4 - 4.1M without any price cut or revision. However,  I think thats impossible... I believe they will do something or they are gonna miss a great year (AC, pkmn, yw bundles for 25k would be perfect but I doubt it...)

With the 3ds almost out and no home console they have to be really clever to get high numbers in Japan... So I would go for 4.5 - 4.6M if they cut the price or release any revision...

I have not much idea about PS4 but it should be a bit worse than last year. Lets say kh does as mhw which I doubt still I think they dont have many big releases for the rest of the year... could do similar numbers if they release ffvii remake but doesn't look like... So i will go for 1.4M



After much deliberation:

3'8M Switch (probably going full year at $300 with maybe some discount in the process, possibly peak year for Switch in Japan)
1'4M PS4 (no price cuts are going to stop sales decline this year, i expect a rough 2nd half of the year for PS4 in Japan)

colafitte said:
After much deliberation:

3'8M Switch (probably going full year at $300 with maybe some discount in the process, possibly peak year for Switch in Japan)
1'4M PS4 (no price cuts are going to stop sales decline this year, i expect a rough 2nd half of the year for PS4 in Japan)

Peak year at it's original price seems like a contradiction in my eyes, I think Switchs peak year we will see some sort of permanent price drop. It could very well be the peak year, but not without some sort of pricecut.

I'll chicken out and wait for w2 to see how it goes before a precise prediction myself ;) But as far some discussion goes... Assuming AC and Pokemon gen 8 are actually both coming this year in a timely fashion (more like summer+holiday) compared to 2 x holiday releases like this year I'm confident we'll see 4M+ for Switch. 

I dont think no pricecut can save PS4 from dropping a bit more this year, KH3 is going to push some consoles but not in a way MHW did. 1.3-1.5M would be my earliest of guesses.



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Mbolibombo said:
colafitte said:
After much deliberation:

3'8M Switch (probably going full year at $300 with maybe some discount in the process, possibly peak year for Switch in Japan)
1'4M PS4 (no price cuts are going to stop sales decline this year, i expect a rough 2nd half of the year for PS4 in Japan)

Peak year at it's original price seems like a contradiction in my eyes, I think Switchs peak year we will see some sort of permanent price drop. It could very well be the peak year, but not without some sort of pricecut.

I'll chicken out and wait for w2 to see how it goes before a precise prediction myself ;) But as far some discussion goes... Assuming AC and Pokemon gen 8 are actually both coming this year in a timely fashion (more like summer+holiday) compared to 2 x holiday releases like this year I'm confident we'll see 4M+ for Switch. 

I dont think no pricecut can save PS4 from dropping a bit more this year, KH3 is going to push some consoles but not in a way MHW did. 1.3-1.5M would be my earliest of guesses.

I should've used the words better...my fault. Nintendo "trying go full year at $300 and possibly some discount in the process". But yeah, i discussed this all day yesterday with some other posters. I really think there's still a lot of cosumers waiting to buy a Switch  for their favorite games even at full price. Switch is now in a very good momentum thanks to Smash and i can feel Nintendo is going to try go full profit this year and achieving best sales ever in a year in Japan at full price is probably their goal. But yes, there's a high probability there's a $50 discount during the year accompanied by big bundles with their best games.



Switch - 4.2 million
PS4 - 1.5 million

Animal Crossing will be the best-selling game of the year.

Switch 4.6 million
PS4 1.5 million

 

Switch will absolutely get a price cut and probably a Switch XL/Pro this year which will both push consoles. Momentum from Let's Go, Smash, and maybe NSMBU will continue to push sales to start the year. Animal Crossing, FF games and probably DQXI, more third party offerings (in general much stronger year than 2018), plus Pokemon for the holidays all are gonna make 2019 a much bigger year in Japan than 2018 was.

Last edited by Slownenberg - on 11 January 2019

As it is a favourable market for handheld consoles

NS : 3.3~3.7 M
PS4 : 1.6~1.8 M

Messatsu 天 

Switch: 4 - 4.5 million
PS4: 1.4 million

I think Nintendo will really push their console hard in 2019 as they certainly want it to match 3DS sales in the long run. But price is still too high to address some chunks of the market so I think it will do around 4 million, more with a price drop. The PS4 should sell decently but it won't have a title as huge as Monster Hunter next year and PS5 rumors and news will be frequent, so sales should drop somewhat.