They will eventually try to reach that sub-$200 price point but I dont expect it this year. If they do reduce the price this year, I would expect $249.
Mmmm, if the low the price to $249 this year....mmmm, 4M+ is a lock i guess. But still i think lowing the price is a sign of "weakness" and Switch is not weak at all in Japan. I really think Nintendo is going to try reach 4M for $300 all year.
So I guess Wii U didnt show any sing of "weakness" because never went past $300. :D
On more serious note, most of consoles had price cut buy 3rd year including all best selling platforms like PS2, DS, PS1, Wii and PS4 (actually PS4 had 2 price cuts before its 4. year on market). Panic price cut like 3DS had only 4 months after launch was sing of weakness of 3DS sales, but you hardly can say same thing for all platforms I mentioned and Switch will not be different. Also, price cut doesnt mean less profit, but buy time cost of productions of consoles are getting down, so in most cases they maintain same profit margin despite price cut while especially when revision is followed buy price cut, in same time they have higher HW and SW sales.
Saying all that, Switch receiving official price cut in 2019. is almost certain thing same like receiving revision, and that alone will push sales above 4m not to mentione much stronger Switch 2019. lineup compared to 2018.