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Japan Sales Week 1, December 31 - January 6, 2019.

Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 1, December 31 - January 6, 2019.

I mean besides “weakness” or thinking your product wont sell as well is maximizing your sales before the Next gen arrives and steals some of your thunder. It is key for Nintendo to maximize sales in 2019 and early/mid 2020.



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Clank said:
With pkmn, animal crossing, luigis mansion, dq XI and Yokai Watch I expect at least 5M for Switch in Japan next year

I wouldn't want to jinx it but, if Switch's 2019 lineup so far delivers the Nintendo Switch would deserve to sell 5 million (or close to) in Japan this year.

Honestly the biggest thing I believe that has been holding Switch back in Japan from achieving peak 3DS/DS sales numbers is it's price tag. If does finally get it's first price cut in Japan this year I think it could do a world of change.



colafitte said:

I want to add too that 3DS went from 5'5M in 2012 to 5'0M in 2013 and you know what games came for 3DS that year in Japan?:

Pokemon X/Y
Monster Hunter 4
Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon
Mario and Luigi Dream Team
Donkey Kong Country Returns 3DS
Yokai Watch
Zelda A Link Between Worlds
Shin Megami Tensei IV
Phoenix Wright
Dragon Ball Heroes

Edit: oh and Animal Crossing New Leaf..., that little and unsuccesful game....XD


Better and more games didn't tanslate into more sales for 3DS that year.

Animal Crossing was 2012 in Japan.

The difference is that 3DS had a price cut in year 1 and a revision in year 2, Switch is entering year 3 with neither of those things meaning the trajectory will likely be different from 3DS.

Media Create sales 3DS

2011-4.28m

2012-5.50m

2013-4.88m

2014-3.18m

3DS sales started out really slow, the price was too high and the software output too low, but the price cut in summer followed by big games in the fall led to a record first year.

Momentum from late 2011 continued in 2012 and this is when the system started to get a really steady output of big games and a revision. This was the 3rd best year for any system ever in Japan.

2013 was another amazing year but it's extremely hard to top what 2012 had and it suffered a modest decline. And by the beginning of 2014, 3DS already had an install base approaching 15 million so market saturation started to kick in causing a large drop in year 4 despite still selling strong.

 

I think the sales curve for Switch will be different

2017-3.31m

2018-3.53m

2019-~4.2m

2020-~3.7m

Instead of large increase followed by small decrease followed by large decrease, I think Switch will be small increase, big increase, small decrease in year 2, 3 & 4.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

that's certainly a nice week for everyone, even Sony who managed to pull a fanatstic 100K+ out of nowhere with it's last offerings. Meanwhile, SSBU is just plowding through every other game in the software departement. Also, special mention to SPM for it's great legs and Kirby Star Allies which managed to surpass the 700K milestone. !



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

A gift to a special someone ...

Wow, Smash has almost caught up to Splatoon 2. Didn't know Smash was that popular in Japan.



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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

I want to add too that 3DS went from 5'5M in 2012 to 5'0M in 2013 and you know what games came for 3DS that year in Japan?:

Pokemon X/Y
Monster Hunter 4
Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon
Mario and Luigi Dream Team
Donkey Kong Country Returns 3DS
Yokai Watch
Zelda A Link Between Worlds
Shin Megami Tensei IV
Phoenix Wright
Dragon Ball Heroes

Edit: oh and Animal Crossing New Leaf..., that little and unsuccesful game....XD


Better and more games didn't tanslate into more sales for 3DS that year.

Animal Crossing was 2012 in Japan.

The difference is that 3DS had a price cut in year 1 and a revision in year 2, Switch is entering year 3 with neither of those things meaning the trajectory will likely be different from 3DS.

Media Create sales 3DS

2011-4.28m

2012-5.50m

2013-4.88m

2014-3.18m

3DS sales started out really slow, the price was too high and the software output too low, but the price cut in summer followed by big games in the fall led to a record first year.

Momentum from late 2011 continued in 2012 and this is when the system started to get a really steady output of big games and a revision. This was the 3rd best year for any system ever in Japan.

2013 was another amazing year but it's extremely hard to top what 2012 had and it suffered a modest decline. And by the beginning of 2014, 3DS already had an install base approaching 15 million so market saturation started to kick in causing a large drop in year 4 despite still selling strong.

 

I think the sales curve for Switch will be different

2017-3.31m

2018-3.53m

2019-~4.2m

2020-~3.7m

Instead of large increase followed by small decrease followed by large decrease, I think Switch will be small increase, big increase, small decrease in year 2, 3 & 4.

Oh, true about Animal Crossing New Leaf. VGC database showed 2013. My mistake.

Yeah, i agree with you. I expect Switch selling more, no less this year. But i just read a post before saying Pokemon, AC, Luigi's Mansion, Yokai Watch, etc... were launching this year on Switch and it remind me the lineup was very similar to 3DS in 2013.

So, basically i was trying to say, that a good lineup, is not a gurantee of better sales. Price and momentum are even more important.



Eagle367 said:
Kerotan said:
Ps4 surprise of the week hitting 117k. Only 6th time it beat 100k and also outsold xbox LTD in one week. Highest ever weeks sales outside a major game launch or ps4 launch. Here's to it hitting 8m and 9m in 2019 which almost all of you doubted.

9 mil in 2019 is impossible for PS4 man. The switch will hit it though so take solace in that

I wonder when people will stop doubting the ps4. They never learn. 

Train wreck said:
Kerotan said:
Ps4 surprise of the week hitting 117k. Only 6th time it beat 100k and also outsold xbox LTD in one week. Highest ever weeks sales outside a major game launch or ps4 launch. Here's to it hitting 8m and 9m in 2019 which almost all of you doubted.

I thought (I have to find my post from early 2013) that the PS4 would be down 20% from PS3 levels (10.5 to ~8) looks like ill be wrong on that.  Happy because after the PS4's first year in Japan, things did look bleak. 

Good prediction. I always said 8m minimum but hopeful it will beat 10m and ps3 in the end. I'm more so confident now then hopeful. 

kazuyamishima said:
colafitte said:
PS4 sales in Japan, are like PS3's. Like a turtle, slow and boring but steady and consistent, and at the end of the day it will surpass 10M in Japan. I expect selling more than PS3 too, not by much though.

I'm expecting Wii levels, around 12-13 millions. That's good for a traditional home console.

Finally a positive prediction! I feel sony needs to drop the price big time if they are to do that. 

Eagle367 said:
zorg1000 said:

Why not? It needs to sell 1,381,566 in 2019.

It did 1.7-1.8 million in 2016, 2017 & 2018.

Judging by how dramatically sales of 3ds, Vita, etc fell in the region, I don't think it will reach it. We shall see though. But this year required Monhun and dramatic sales and piece drops to get the PS4 there. The PS4 is running out of ammo in Japan.

They gave it a $50 price cut with 2 digital games for the last 4 weeks. The price all year long was very high. If they give it a $50 permanent cut in say march or April it will help it sustain a better baseline. I feel they could do $100 off but they won't because they are keeping the price high WW. 



Waiting to get ship+digital from nintendo but does any1 think..... 5mil is possible for Smash? Dont forget thia game has huge digital sales too.



tbone51 said:
Waiting to get ship+digital from nintendo but does any1 think..... 5mil is possible for Smash? Dont forget thia game has huge digital sales too.

5 million lifetime? Of course that is in the realm of possibility. 



 

zorg1000 said:
Clank said:
With pkmn, animal crossing, luigis mansion, dq XI and Yokai Watch I expect at least 5M for Switch in Japan next year

Next year already started

Haha sorry about that I hope I get used to it before february 

Green098 said:
Clank said:
With pkmn, animal crossing, luigis mansion, dq XI and Yokai Watch I expect at least 5M for Switch in Japan next year

I wouldn't want to jinx it but, if Switch's 2019 lineup so far delivers the Nintendo Switch would deserve to sell 5 million (or close to) in Japan this year.

Honestly the biggest thing I believe that has been holding Switch back in Japan from achieving peak 3DS/DS sales numbers is it's price tag. If does finally get it's first price cut in Japan this year I think it could do a world of change.

100% i agree with u,  i was talking about 2019 (this year sry) also I think they need some price cut or a cheaper handheld to reach even better numbers... And i think they are aware