TLOU II is not going to be a launch title for PS5 (i mean, is not going to lauch a the same time as PS5). It will be a full sold game in PS4 first, selling its own 10-15M and then it will accompany PS5 with whatever the method PS5 uses with previous PS4 games, retrocompability or a remastered version. This way is more profitable for Sony, because PS5 will sell at lauch whatever they produce anyway.

And they're going to need a blockbuster title to sell in Holiday 2019 because now Sony is a premium software publisher like the rest of the best. Gran Turismo did good in 2017, Spiderman did way better in 2018 and Sony will use TLOU II to guarantee software and hardware success to Q3 results. 

For last but not least. Remind you that this is the same Sony that decided not to use any kind of promotion in December in USA to maximize profits. They're squeezing PS4 to the max and if they can sell PS4 at good profits for a longer time, they are going to do it.

In business the words "they don't have to maximize sales" does not exist. They are going to do the best they can do with PS4. And after knowing recent commentaries from them saying PS4 is entering the final period of its life or that they won't be at E3 in 2019, so nothing new hardware to announce. They won't announce PS5 by year's end either because that will affect PS4 sales. Nintendo did it with Switch because WiiU was a total failure, but PS4 will still sell a lot next holidays. They will announce PS5 by Feb or March 2020 and it will launch at the end of year worlwide like PS4.

So a year later, TLOU II with 12 months in the market will reignite its sales with a PS5 version, and will still keep selling.

16m might be a bit too high.

2017-20.2m

2018-18.0m

That's a ~11% drop and I would have to assume that the % drop will be bigger than last year, maybe ~15% which would be 15-15.5m

Like we always say playstations tend to have better legs then Nintendos. It's why we shouldn't expert switch to outsell the ps4. The ps4 sales have been stable as fook and its why for years the talk of has the ps4 hit it's peak year been nonsense. It doesn't have that traditional big peak and fast decline many products suffer from. 

And there is one kupo that think Switch will have 20M for 2019, 25M 2020, 22M 2021, 20M 2022 before next system is announced.

Errrrr if you get their original numbers they were much more undertracked than what you have for the first couple years of PS4. Later we get numbers so late that several time VGC had the Sony numbers to put like 2 months of data already based on it.

Where this is coming from? Did Nintendo ever give actual sellthrough numbers for Wii? The numbers are quite different from VGC numbers.....VGC has Wii 2'9M 1Y, 16'5M 2Y, 24'2M 3Y, 21'3M 4Y, 17'3M 5Y and 11'5M 6Y.

PS4 had the best launch ever for any console when it launched, so that's why i don't believe this numbers...

Edit: In fact Wii shipped 3'19M consoles from launch until Dec 31 2006, so that number is obviously wrong.

Those are fiscal year shipments for Wii.

Sony gives out fiscal year PS4 shipments so I can make a comparison in a little bit, wont be as fancy as that chart though.

Well then, PS4 are obviously wrong because those are selltrough numbers of calendar years, and not shipment numbers.

PS4 sold to consumers 4'2M at the end of 2013, sold 20'2M to consumers in 2017 and sold 18M in 2018. The graphic is mixing Wii FY years (shipments) with PS4 sold to consumers calendar years. Is still wrong.

I know, that's exactly what I'm saying, in that chart its Wii fiscal shipments vs PS4 calendar sales so when I get a chance I'll make a FY shipments comparison.

in the name of integrity, we should have an actual chart that compare both FY years, not this. This is the worst kind of misinformation. The kind i hate the most. Putting correct and official numbers but with different context misleading the people in the process. 

PS4 started better, then Wii entered god mode and then fell way quicker than PS4, but not as much as that graphic shows.