When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's? | |||
| Q1-2 2019 | 69 | 4.20% | |
| Q3-4 2019 | 552 | 33.58% | |
| Q1-2 2020 | 394 | 23.97% | |
| Q3-4 2020 | 363 | 22.08% | |
| Q1-2 2021 | 68 | 4.14% | |
| Q3-4 2021 | 53 | 3.22% | |
| Q1-2 2022 | 15 | 0.91% | |
| Q3-4 2022 | 11 | 0.67% | |
| 2023 or later | 19 | 1.16% | |
| Never | 100 | 6.08% | |
| Total: | 1,644 | ||
Okay, much as I agree Switch will definitely pass Xbox One lifetime, I don't see why so many are so confident it'll happen this year.
That's a 14 million gap to close, while the gap shrank by roughly 8.5 million in 2018. So we'd have to see a YOY combined Switch increase/Xbone decline of 5.5 million in 2019 for Switch to take point. That's a tall order.
| curl-6 said: Okay, much as I agree Switch will definitely pass Xbox One lifetime, I don't see why so many are so confident it'll happen this year. That's a 14 million gap to close, while the gap shrank by roughly 8.5 million in 2018. So we'd have to see a YOY combined Switch increase/Xbone decline of 5.5 million in 2019 for Switch to take point. That's a tall order. |
Looking more like the gap shrank by 9 million or more in 2018.
YTD 2018 (2 weeks left)
NSW-14.3m
XBO-6.9m
Difference-7.4m
Last 2 weeks 2017
NSW-1.86m
XBO-0.73m
Difference-1.13m
Switch is having a significantly stronger December than last year while XBO is roughly flat. Up ~30% vs up ~2% in first half of month. If the next two weeks follow that than it will be
Last 2 weeks of 2018
NSW-2.42m
XBO-0.74m
2018 Total
NSW-16.72m
XBO-7.64m
Difference-9.08m
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
Looking more like the gap shrank by 9 million or more in 2018. YTD 2018 (2 weeks left) NSW-14.3m XBO-6.9m Difference-7.4m
Last 2 weeks 2017 NSW-1.86m XBO-0.73m Difference-1.13m
Switch is having a significantly stronger December than last year while XBO is roughly flat. Up ~30% vs up ~2% in first half of month. If the next two weeks follow that than it will be Last 2 weeks of 2018 NSW-2.42m XBO-0.74m 2018 Total NSW-16.72m XBO-7.64m Difference-9.08m |
Ah, I didn't realize, thanks.
Still, that means we'll have to go from a 9 million gain in 2018 to a 13.5 million gain in 2019. Not impossible, but still a big enough jump to be far from guaranteed.
curl-6 said:
Ah, I didn't realize, thanks. Still, that means we'll have to go from a 9 million gain in 2018 to a 13.5 million gain in 2019. Not impossible, but still a big enough jump to be far from guaranteed. |
I would say it's highly likely that Switch sees further growth in 2019 and XBO has a moderate decline so even if it doesnt pass XBO in 2019 it will be very close and should easily do it in the first few months of 2020.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
I would say it's highly likely that Switch sees further growth in 2019 and XBO has a moderate decline so even if it doesnt pass XBO in 2019 it will be very close and should easily do it in the first few months of 2020. |
Oh I also think Switch should be up YOY and Xbone down, but enough to gain by 4.5 million more than last year? I dunno, to me it just feels like 2020 is more likely.
| curl-6 said: Okay, much as I agree Switch will definitely pass Xbox One lifetime, I don't see why so many are so confident it'll happen this year. That's a 14 million gap to close, while the gap shrank by roughly 8.5 million in 2018. So we'd have to see a YOY combined Switch increase/Xbone decline of 5.5 million in 2019 for Switch to take point. That's a tall order. |
It's simple. Switch is likely to end this year with around 30m consoles sold which will put it's yearly sales to ~17m. Xbox One will end this year with a little bit more than 43m consoles sold which will put it's yearly sales to around 7.5m. With that said the most likely outcome in 2019 would be Switch seeing a growth and selling 20m and Xbox One seeing a small decline with drop to 6-7m yearly sales. Both consoles should finish this year at around 50m mark.
curl-6 said:
Oh I also think Switch should be up YOY and Xbone down, but enough to gain by 4.5 million more than last year? I dunno, to me it just feels like 2020 is more likely. |
This is my guess
2019
NSW, 18-20m
XBO, ~6.5m
LTD
NSW, 48-50m
XBO, ~50m
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
Scenario 1:
MS dropping their prices early on the year:Scenario 2:
MS dropping the ball and not cutting their prices early on the year:
Switch only scenario (sorry but I just do not see Nintendo cutting the price nor doing any refresh model this year).
End of 2018 - 30m
So.. my answer would be either Q1 or Q2 2020.
curl-6 said:
Oh I also think Switch should be up YOY and Xbone down, but enough to gain by 4.5 million more than last year? I dunno, to me it just feels like 2020 is more likely. |
Tbh with Fire Emblem, Pokemon Gen 8 and Animal Crossing I can see that happening especially if the expected price cut happens.
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