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Forums - Sales Discussion - When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's?

 

When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's?

Q1-2 2019 69 4.20%
 
Q3-4 2019 552 33.58%
 
Q1-2 2020 394 23.97%
 
Q3-4 2020 363 22.08%
 
Q1-2 2021 68 4.14%
 
Q3-4 2021 53 3.22%
 
Q1-2 2022 15 0.91%
 
Q3-4 2022 11 0.67%
 
2023 or later 19 1.16%
 
Never 100 6.08%
 
Total:1,644
Jigsawx1 said:
i think the switch will stop selling well when next xbox and playstation arrives, so will it be able to overtake the xbox within the next 2 years? dont think so it should sell ~ 28-to 29 million during this time and next year it dont has much aaa software like this year.....

It won't stop selling just like the PS4 didn't stop selling when the Switch came out.

----

I think it will be end of Q4 2019 or early 2020.



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shikamaru317 said:

XB1 should hit 50m before the end of 2019 (there are rumors of an XB1 S price drop and an even cheaper discless XB1 model this year, in addition to a big Holiday exclusive, Gears 5). That means that Switch will have to sell over 20m in 2019 to pass XB1. 20m+ Switches sold in 2019 will only happen imo if 3 things happen, 1. Pokemon gen 8 makes 2019 and isn't lazy. 2. Animal Crossing makes 2019. 3. The rumored new Switch Lite and Switch Pro models release, with the Switch Lite costing $250. While it is possible that all 3 things will happen, I am somewhat doubtful that they will. So, my money is on Switch passing XB1 in Q1 2020.

They don't need all that to reach 20+ millions.

Just have multiple system seller/big games over the year instead of 2 at the same time at the end of the year. Fire Emblem, Luigi's mansion, Animal Crossing and the potential of Metroid/Bayonetta 3/Pokemon/SMTV/Yokai Watch 4 is well enough. Switch might get a price cut this year also, don't think it needs a revision this year or atleast just for the holidays maybe. But i think they should keep it for 2020 once the next gen is announced.



It's definitely possible it could happen this year but only if Nintendo doesn't drop the ball, something they do with frustrating regularity.



Assuming VGC numbers are correct?Switch should pass XBox One by the end of June of 2019.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
Assuming VGC numbers are correct?Switch should pass XBox One by the end of June of 2019.

How?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
Nautilus said:
Assuming VGC numbers are correct?Switch should pass XBox One by the end of June of 2019.

How?

I guess it depends how strong the first half of 2019 will be for the Switch and how weak will be the first half for XOne.

 

But Im imagining that the Switch will be able to reach their 20 million sales projection for this fiscal year.Hell I even expect it to sell one extra million or two more than Nintendo expects(simply because it seems that it did better than anyone think this december).So that would put the Switch betwenn 38 to 40 million.

Then Nintendo would have to sell an extra 5 or 6 million, give or take, betwenn April and June.If Animal Crossing launches by the end of June, coupled with Fire Emblem, god knows what else, and the increased Switch momentum(I dont expect the Switch to sell less, in 2019, than it did this year) they may be able to pull that number.

And yeah, with gen 8 dwindling down, I dont expect XOne to pull big numbers betwenn January and June.So with 45 to 46 million units sold, Switch should at least match and most likely pass the XOne.

Oh, and those are shipped numbers of course, since we would be using Nintendo numbers.I know this is bold and not so easy to accomplish, but I feel that this might just happen.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
zorg1000 said:

How?

I guess it depends how strong the first half of 2019 will be for the Switch and how weak will be the first half for XOne.

 

But Im imagining that the Switch will be able to reach their 20 million sales projection for this fiscal year.Hell I even expect it to sell one extra million or two more than Nintendo expects(simply because it seems that it did better than anyone think this december).So that would put the Switch betwenn 38 to 40 million.

Then Nintendo would have to sell an extra 5 or 6 million, give or take, betwenn April and June.If Animal Crossing launches by the end of June, coupled with Fire Emblem, god knows what else, and the increased Switch momentum(I dont expect the Switch to sell less, in 2019, than it did this year) they may be able to pull that number.

And yeah, with gen 8 dwindling down, I dont expect XOne to pull big numbers betwenn January and June.So with 45 to 46 million units sold, Switch should at least match and most likely pass the XOne.

Oh, and those are shipped numbers of course, since we would be using Nintendo numbers.I know this is bold and not so easy to accomplish, but I feel that this might just happen.

It's not possible. Switch isn't selling another 20 million in the same time frame that XBO sells 3 million which is what you are proposing.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Nautilus said:

I guess it depends how strong the first half of 2019 will be for the Switch and how weak will be the first half for XOne.

 

But Im imagining that the Switch will be able to reach their 20 million sales projection for this fiscal year.Hell I even expect it to sell one extra million or two more than Nintendo expects(simply because it seems that it did better than anyone think this december).So that would put the Switch betwenn 38 to 40 million.

Then Nintendo would have to sell an extra 5 or 6 million, give or take, betwenn April and June.If Animal Crossing launches by the end of June, coupled with Fire Emblem, god knows what else, and the increased Switch momentum(I dont expect the Switch to sell less, in 2019, than it did this year) they may be able to pull that number.

And yeah, with gen 8 dwindling down, I dont expect XOne to pull big numbers betwenn January and June.So with 45 to 46 million units sold, Switch should at least match and most likely pass the XOne.

Oh, and those are shipped numbers of course, since we would be using Nintendo numbers.I know this is bold and not so easy to accomplish, but I feel that this might just happen.

It's not possible. Switch isn't selling another 20 million in the same time frame that XBO sells 3 million which is what you are proposing.

What?No, the Switch would have to sell 5 or 6 million by the end of June(Im assuming that Holidays will do the heavy lifting for the 20 million mark), since it will be betwenn 38 and 40 millions by the end of march and then XOne to sell the 3 million give or take for the Switch to pass it.

Where are you getting this "Have to sell another 20 million" from?



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
zorg1000 said:

It's not possible. Switch isn't selling another 20 million in the same time frame that XBO sells 3 million which is what you are proposing.

What?No, the Switch would have to sell 5 or 6 million by the end of June(Im assuming that Holidays will do the heavy lifting for the 20 million mark), since it will be betwenn 38 and 40 millions by the end of march and then XOne to sell the 3 million give or take for the Switch to pass it.

Where are you getting this "Have to sell another 20 million" from?

You said, "So with 45 to 46 million units sold, Switch should at least match and most likely pass the XOne."

Numbers as of Dec 8

NSW-26.1 million

XBO-42.3 million

In order to accomplish that, it would need to sell 19-20 million in the same time XBO sells 3-4 million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Nautilus said:

What?No, the Switch would have to sell 5 or 6 million by the end of June(Im assuming that Holidays will do the heavy lifting for the 20 million mark), since it will be betwenn 38 and 40 millions by the end of march and then XOne to sell the 3 million give or take for the Switch to pass it.

Where are you getting this "Have to sell another 20 million" from?

You said, "So with 45 to 46 million units sold, Switch should at least match and most likely pass the XOne."

Numbers as of Dec 8

NSW-26.1 million

XBO-42.3 million

In order to accomplish that, it would need to sell 19-20 million in the same time XBO sells 3-4 million.

Oh, from now you mean?Then yes, I do believe so.

By end of march it will be around 40 millions shipped, if we are to believe that the forecast will be correct(and maybe it will even do a bit better than expected), then why should it be impossible?And XOne is selling at a snails pace, even if it will end up selling more than 50 millions LT, which is a good number at the end of the day.So by the time January hits, I expect it to return to sell at a snails pace yet again.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1