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Michael Pachter: "Switch is tracking to sell 13 million this year"

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Michael Pachter: "Switch is tracking to sell 13 million this year"

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Hiku said:

A+

From what I hear, in terms of the processor, Wii is basically an overclocked Gamecube. While WiiU uses a tri-core Wii processor.
https://youtu.be/RVoyvfVITOA?t=882

So that may be the similarities he was referring to.

It's one of them:

 

  1. The processor is the same tech (PowerPC 4xx from 1998 just like the Gamecube and Wii), just with a higher clock speed and tripled the cores.
  2. Ati GPU in all those models
  3. Can use all the peripherals of the Wii out of the box
  4. can play all the games of the Wii
  5. The console even looks similar, especially from the front; Wii U case is basically just a streched Wii case with rounded edges. 
From a technical point of view, the Wii U is indeed just a Wii HD with a Gamepad controller slapped on top. From a marketing point of view, it's the successor of the Wii.

 

I am a bit interested in how a Wii HD with Motion Plus would have done if it released in 2009/2010.

I think it could have slowed the decline down in those years and extended lifetime sales to 110-115 million or so.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

It's one of them:

 

  1. The processor is the same tech (PowerPC 4xx from 1998 just like the Gamecube and Wii), just with a higher clock speed and tripled the cores.
  2. Ati GPU in all those models
  3. Can use all the peripherals of the Wii out of the box
  4. can play all the games of the Wii
  5. The console even looks similar, especially from the front; Wii U case is basically just a streched Wii case with rounded edges. 
From a technical point of view, the Wii U is indeed just a Wii HD with a Gamepad controller slapped on top. From a marketing point of view, it's the successor of the Wii.

 

I am a bit interested in how a Wii HD with Motion Plus would have done if it released in 2009/2010.

I think it could have slowed the decline down in those years and extended lifetime sales to 110-115 million or so.

Probably, especially if the Wii HD would have had similar specs to the Wii U, as it would have allowed easy porting of PS360 games. But by how much, that's more of a question to me. While it probably would have slowed down the sales downward trend, I don't think it could have reverted it, So 120-130M would be maximum sales for a Wii with an HD mid-life update.



Acevil said:
curl-6 said:

Did some digging and here are some other gems of wisdom from Pachter:

- PS3/360/Wii will be the last console generation

- Red Dead Redemption won't have mass appeal and won't become a blockbuster franchise

- GTA5 to launch in 2010

- Wii motion controls won't be accepted by the community and consequently Nintendo will exit the hardware business

- Kinect will be $50 (It was three times that)

- Nintendo will make a mid-gen Wii HD

Nothing and I mean nothing will top his Netflix worthless piece of crap in 2005. Like you can tell he was being a child when he made that statement. 

I remember a co-worker of mine getting suckered into that one.  I bet him $10 that Netflix would still be around in 2015.  I sent him a reminder that he owes me the money :P



curl-6 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

It's one of them:

 

  1. The processor is the same tech (PowerPC 4xx from 1998 just like the Gamecube and Wii), just with a higher clock speed and tripled the cores.
  2. Ati GPU in all those models
  3. Can use all the peripherals of the Wii out of the box
  4. can play all the games of the Wii
  5. The console even looks similar, especially from the front; Wii U case is basically just a streched Wii case with rounded edges. 
From a technical point of view, the Wii U is indeed just a Wii HD with a Gamepad controller slapped on top. From a marketing point of view, it's the successor of the Wii.

 

Early PS3 models literally contained the PS2's chipset to allow backwards compatibility. Xbone uses the same type of RAM as the 360. You can use Gamecube games and controllers on the Wii. And Wii U's GPU is nothing like the Wii's except for being AMD; again, 360 and Xbone both have AMD GPUs as well. None of these things change the fact that they're separate consoles. The Wii U is not Wii HD, Pachter was wrong.

Thank you, glad someone said this before I got here.  The Wii U just being an HD Wii from a tech standpoint?  That makes no sense, I don't care what the reasoning is.



Switch will sell 13 mil by the end of this year. Even if it stays at 3DS level from the same period of time, we're looking at additional 2.5M units sold in Q4, which makes it min of 15.5M in FY19. But, taking into account current trend, Switch is closer to PS4 figures than 3DS's, meaning extra million on the top of it. My best guess is 17 mil or 20 mil if we see new SKU in next three month.



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SpokenTruth said:
drinkandswim said:
I mean granted he was right if it wasn't for November and December where they sold probably around 10 million systems. Its kind of hard to predict a system will go from a 1 million global a month to 3.3 and 6+.

It's that hard when you are supposed to be the industries most well known video game retail sales analyst and you've studied quarterly sales trends for more than 20 years.

Extrapolating Q1 shipment figures by 4 and calling it a day is the laziest means of sales prediction ever.

My guess is his whole “esteemed analyst Wedbush Snodgrass group” thing is a huge gimmick, and people buy it as real so he can generate an income from ad revenue.

He’s too inaccurate, and obviously can’t even work a basic spreadsheet.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin said:
SpokenTruth said:

It's that hard when you are supposed to be the industries most well known video game retail sales analyst and you've studied quarterly sales trends for more than 20 years.

Extrapolating Q1 shipment figures by 4 and calling it a day is the laziest means of sales prediction ever.

My guess is his whole “esteemed analyst Wedbush Snodgrass group” thing is a huge gimmick, and people buy it as real so he can generate an income from ad revenue.

He’s too inaccurate, and obviously can’t even work a basic spreadsheet.

It has to be something close to this because no industry would normally accept such inaccuracies. 

How does one screw up as constantly and consistently as he does and still maintain such prominence? 
*Trying my best to refrain from a presidential joke*



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Can't we all just stop talking about Pachter?

He was fun to laugh at for a while but it's gotten old.



I LOVE ICELAND!

SpokenTruth said:

It has to be something close to this because no industry would normally accept such inaccuracies. 

How does one screw up as constantly and consistently as he does and still maintain such prominence? 
*Trying my best to refrain from a presidential joke*

Yeah I must confess it baffles me how he still has a job when he's so frequently and hilariously off base.



curl-6 said:
SpokenTruth said:
It has to be something close to this because no industry would normally accept such inaccuracies. 

How does one screw up as constantly and consistently as he does and still maintain such prominence? 
*Trying my best to refrain from a presidential joke*

Yeah I must confess it baffles me how he still has a job when he's so frequently and hilariously off base.

Maybe he owns the majority of shares and the board members don’t have a clue on how to get rid of him.