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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Michael Pachter: "Switch is tracking to sell 13 million this year"

peachbuggy on 05 January 2019
CommandoII said:
SKMBlake said:

I just wonder why gamesindustry.biz gave him credit and asked him about his toughts.

I just hate people who can say nonsense all the time and still have an audience. Look at the comments of this video https://youtu.be/6abmXivp-AI

The channel owner is defending Pachter by calling all negative commenters as fanboy and saying Pachter is right because he has data.

I mean, how ? And why ? With a real straight face ?

Couldn't agree more.

 

I stopped posting on this site 10 years ago and he still is the biggest moron in the world.  (props on p.1 post defining "moron")_  good to see you're still here rol!!!!!

  Beyond his usual overwhelming idiocy, WHAT kind of PREDICTION is granted a 7M margin of error?!?!?!  

It' would be an accurate prediction if he said it would sell under 14M and above 12.5M  (if it does indeed sell 13M);  saying it won't extravagantly outsell it's own manufacturing models is not a frikin' (can we curse again on here, I forgot?) ANALYSIS!

It was me that defined the definition of moron!



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

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Oneeee-Chan!!! on 05 January 2019

He sounds like Donald Trump.



curl-6 on 05 January 2019
Hiku said:
curl-6 said:

Did some digging and here are some other gems of wisdom from Pachter:

- PS3/360/Wii will be the last console generation

- Red Dead Redemption won't have mass appeal and won't become a blockbuster franchise

- GTA5 to launch in 2010

- Wii motion controls won't be accepted by the community and consequently Nintendo will exit the hardware business

- Kinect will be $50 (It was three times that)

- Nintendo will make a mid-gen Wii HD

A+

curl-6 said:

Eh, the way I see it, Wii U doesn't have that much in common with the Wii besides the branding really.

Wii was a easy-to-understand, accessible blue ocean console that removed barriers to entry for gaming, Wii U was a confusing, user-unfriendly red ocean console that added barriers to entry.

From what I hear, in terms of the processor, Wii is basically an overclocked Gamecube. While WiiU uses a tri-core Wii processor.
https://youtu.be/RVoyvfVITOA?t=882

So that may be the similarities he was referring to.

Well, the Xbox One uses the same RAM (GDDR3) as the Xbox 360, doesn't mean the Xbone is a hardware revision of the 360.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 05 January 2019

Bofferbrauer2 on 05 January 2019
Hiku said:
curl-6 said:

Did some digging and here are some other gems of wisdom from Pachter:

- PS3/360/Wii will be the last console generation

- Red Dead Redemption won't have mass appeal and won't become a blockbuster franchise

- GTA5 to launch in 2010

- Wii motion controls won't be accepted by the community and consequently Nintendo will exit the hardware business

- Kinect will be $50 (It was three times that)

- Nintendo will make a mid-gen Wii HD

A+

curl-6 said:

Eh, the way I see it, Wii U doesn't have that much in common with the Wii besides the branding really.

Wii was a easy-to-understand, accessible blue ocean console that removed barriers to entry for gaming, Wii U was a confusing, user-unfriendly red ocean console that added barriers to entry.

From what I hear, in terms of the processor, Wii is basically an overclocked Gamecube. While WiiU uses a tri-core Wii processor.
https://youtu.be/RVoyvfVITOA?t=882

So that may be the similarities he was referring to.

It's one of them:

  1. The processor is the same tech (PowerPC 4xx from 1998 just like the Gamecube and Wii), just with a higher clock speed and tripled the cores.
  2. Ati GPU in all those models
  3. Can use all the peripherals of the Wii out of the box
  4. can play all the games of the Wii
  5. The console even looks similar, especially from the front; Wii U case is basically just a streched Wii case with rounded edges. 
From a technical point of view, the Wii U is indeed just a Wii HD with a Gamepad controller slapped on top. From a marketing point of view, it's the successor of the Wii.


The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

curl-6 on 05 January 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Hiku said:

A+

From what I hear, in terms of the processor, Wii is basically an overclocked Gamecube. While WiiU uses a tri-core Wii processor.
https://youtu.be/RVoyvfVITOA?t=882

So that may be the similarities he was referring to.

It's one of them:

 

  1. The processor is the same tech (PowerPC 4xx from 1998 just like the Gamecube and Wii), just with a higher clock speed and tripled the cores.
  2. Ati GPU in all those models
  3. Can use all the peripherals of the Wii out of the box
  4. can play all the games of the Wii
  5. The console even looks similar, especially from the front; Wii U case is basically just a streched Wii case with rounded edges. 
From a technical point of view, the Wii U is indeed just a Wii HD with a Gamepad controller slapped on top. From a marketing point of view, it's the successor of the Wii.

 

Early PS3 models literally contained the PS2's chipset to allow backwards compatibility. Xbone uses the same type of RAM as the 360. You can use Gamecube games and controllers on the Wii. And Wii U's GPU is nothing like the Wii's except for being AMD; again, 360 and Xbone both have AMD GPUs as well. None of these things change the fact that they're separate consoles. The Wii U is not Wii HD, Pachter was wrong.



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zorg1000 on 05 January 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Hiku said:

A+

From what I hear, in terms of the processor, Wii is basically an overclocked Gamecube. While WiiU uses a tri-core Wii processor.
https://youtu.be/RVoyvfVITOA?t=882

So that may be the similarities he was referring to.

It's one of them:

 

  1. The processor is the same tech (PowerPC 4xx from 1998 just like the Gamecube and Wii), just with a higher clock speed and tripled the cores.
  2. Ati GPU in all those models
  3. Can use all the peripherals of the Wii out of the box
  4. can play all the games of the Wii
  5. The console even looks similar, especially from the front; Wii U case is basically just a streched Wii case with rounded edges. 
From a technical point of view, the Wii U is indeed just a Wii HD with a Gamepad controller slapped on top. From a marketing point of view, it's the successor of the Wii.

 

I am a bit interested in how a Wii HD with Motion Plus would have done if it released in 2009/2010.

I think it could have slowed the decline down in those years and extended lifetime sales to 110-115 million or so.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Bofferbrauer2 on 06 January 2019
zorg1000 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

It's one of them:

 

  1. The processor is the same tech (PowerPC 4xx from 1998 just like the Gamecube and Wii), just with a higher clock speed and tripled the cores.
  2. Ati GPU in all those models
  3. Can use all the peripherals of the Wii out of the box
  4. can play all the games of the Wii
  5. The console even looks similar, especially from the front; Wii U case is basically just a streched Wii case with rounded edges. 
From a technical point of view, the Wii U is indeed just a Wii HD with a Gamepad controller slapped on top. From a marketing point of view, it's the successor of the Wii.

 

I am a bit interested in how a Wii HD with Motion Plus would have done if it released in 2009/2010.

I think it could have slowed the decline down in those years and extended lifetime sales to 110-115 million or so.

Probably, especially if the Wii HD would have had similar specs to the Wii U, as it would have allowed easy porting of PS360 games. But by how much, that's more of a question to me. While it probably would have slowed down the sales downward trend, I don't think it could have reverted it, So 120-130M would be maximum sales for a Wii with an HD mid-life update.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

CommandoII on 12 January 2019
Acevil said:
curl-6 said:

Did some digging and here are some other gems of wisdom from Pachter:

- PS3/360/Wii will be the last console generation

- Red Dead Redemption won't have mass appeal and won't become a blockbuster franchise

- GTA5 to launch in 2010

- Wii motion controls won't be accepted by the community and consequently Nintendo will exit the hardware business

- Kinect will be $50 (It was three times that)

- Nintendo will make a mid-gen Wii HD

Nothing and I mean nothing will top his Netflix worthless piece of crap in 2005. Like you can tell he was being a child when he made that statement. 

I remember a co-worker of mine getting suckered into that one.  I bet him $10 that Netflix would still be around in 2015.  I sent him a reminder that he owes me the money :P



Nuvendil on 12 January 2019
curl-6 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

It's one of them:

 

  1. The processor is the same tech (PowerPC 4xx from 1998 just like the Gamecube and Wii), just with a higher clock speed and tripled the cores.
  2. Ati GPU in all those models
  3. Can use all the peripherals of the Wii out of the box
  4. can play all the games of the Wii
  5. The console even looks similar, especially from the front; Wii U case is basically just a streched Wii case with rounded edges. 
From a technical point of view, the Wii U is indeed just a Wii HD with a Gamepad controller slapped on top. From a marketing point of view, it's the successor of the Wii.

 

Early PS3 models literally contained the PS2's chipset to allow backwards compatibility. Xbone uses the same type of RAM as the 360. You can use Gamecube games and controllers on the Wii. And Wii U's GPU is nothing like the Wii's except for being AMD; again, 360 and Xbone both have AMD GPUs as well. None of these things change the fact that they're separate consoles. The Wii U is not Wii HD, Pachter was wrong.

Thank you, glad someone said this before I got here.  The Wii U just being an HD Wii from a tech standpoint?  That makes no sense, I don't care what the reasoning is.



Kristof81 on 12 January 2019

Switch will sell 13 mil by the end of this year. Even if it stays at 3DS level from the same period of time, we're looking at additional 2.5M units sold in Q4, which makes it min of 15.5M in FY19. But, taking into account current trend, Switch is closer to PS4 figures than 3DS's, meaning extra million on the top of it. My best guess is 17 mil or 20 mil if we see new SKU in next three month.