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Forums - Sales Discussion - Rumor: Switch may have outsold PS4 & XBOX 1 combined in December NPD

Clank said:
looks like ps4 is doing much better than last year ( at least numbers for 8th dec ) so I doubt this would become true

Insiders are far more reliable than this sites numbers.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Clank said:
looks like ps4 is doing much better than last year ( at least numbers for 8th dec ) so I doubt this would become true

Yeah, those numbers are probably off.  No one, absolutely no one, with any visibility or insider knowledge on the industry is expecting PS4 to be up for December.



zorg1000 said:
This sites numbers for December 8 are up and they look waaaaayyyyy off for America.

All insiders are pointing to Switch doing over double PS4 in December but this site has it only ~10% higher than PS4 during Smash week.

 

Nuvendil said:
Clank said:
looks like ps4 is doing much better than last year ( at least numbers for 8th dec ) so I doubt this would become true

Yeah, those numbers are probably off.  No one, absolutely no one, with any visibility or insider knowledge on the industry is expecting PS4 to be up for December.

This site is cool because of thread and forum, not for sales data. They are always wrong at first. But they say it in their methodology.



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drinkandswim said:
MasonADC said:

Or not 

Given that PS5 and X2 will be priced at or around $499 by the time they launch and Switch will probably have an $150 model by then you are probably wrong. If Switch has a Pro Model by then (which I assume they will) then Sony and Microsoft will really be in trouble unless they can somehow stack their launch lineup which traditionally hasn't been the case. I don't know exactly what Microsoft can even offer above the Xbox One X when 4K hasn't even hit mainstream yet (I assume it will be by 2020 though). 

Even if they offer a superior product Similar to Switch in 2020. Nintendo will already have a 70 million system install base by then.

You are heavily assuming that the Switch and the next consoles from the competition are battling for the same customer base. I don't think this is true. It's not like people just buy whatever is cheapest, because each box has different goodies inside. A Playstation or an Xbox is bought for the sheer power to keep up with current standards (PCs not withstanding) and guaranteed and complete third party support. In addition to that, each console offers their own exclusives, which appeal to different audiences. Then, there are the brand loyalists and whatnot, never underestimate brand power. Some people will buy multiple consoles to fulfill their changing needs.

So there's no doubt that the PS5 and the X2 will find their success regardless of what the Switch is doing. Nobody knows how big or small the successes will be, but they will be enough. The Switch has a life of its own, catering to the portable market, die hard Nintendo fans, a complementary machine to other home consoles and such.



So PS4 being close to the Switch in the US during Smash week means that the sites numbers are off? I mean it is only one week lol. It could very well be way bigger the next couple of weeks the closer it gets to Christmas. I think some people are just too quick to jump the gun on some things Nothing wrong with waiting and seeing how the rest of the month turns out.....geesh people.

OT

If true then wow this will be a HUGE month for the Switch but then did anyone REALLY doubt that it would be lol. Especially with the monster that is Smash! None the less I can't wait to get the concrete numbers!



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

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TheBlackNaruto said:
So PS4 being close to the Switch in the US during Smash week means that the sites numbers are off? I mean it is only one week lol. It could very well be way bigger the next couple of weeks the closer it gets to Christmas. I think some people are just too quick to jump the gun on some things Nothing wrong with waiting and seeing how the rest of the month turns out.....geesh people.

OT

If true then wow this will be a HUGE month for the Switch but then did anyone REALLY doubt that it would be lol. Especially with the monster that is Smash! None the less I can't wait to get the concrete numbers!

If ps4 numbers are truly tracking to be under or at a million, the next two weeks would be significantly lower than this week, which wouldn't make much sense as they are the weeks leading up to Christmas 



Dante9 said:
drinkandswim said:

Given that PS5 and X2 will be priced at or around $499 by the time they launch and Switch will probably have an $150 model by then you are probably wrong. If Switch has a Pro Model by then (which I assume they will) then Sony and Microsoft will really be in trouble unless they can somehow stack their launch lineup which traditionally hasn't been the case. I don't know exactly what Microsoft can even offer above the Xbox One X when 4K hasn't even hit mainstream yet (I assume it will be by 2020 though). 

Even if they offer a superior product Similar to Switch in 2020. Nintendo will already have a 70 million system install base by then.

You are heavily assuming that the Switch and the next consoles from the competition are battling for the same customer base. I don't think this is true. It's not like people just buy whatever is cheapest, because each box has different goodies inside. A Playstation or an Xbox is bought for the sheer power to keep up with current standards (PCs not withstanding) and guaranteed and complete third party support. In addition to that, each console offers their own exclusives, which appeal to different audiences. Then, there are the brand loyalists and whatnot, never underestimate brand power. Some people will buy multiple consoles to fulfill their changing needs.

So there's no doubt that the PS5 and the X2 will find their success regardless of what the Switch is doing. Nobody knows how big or small the successes will be, but they will be enough. The Switch has a life of its own, catering to the portable market, die hard Nintendo fans, a complementary machine to other home consoles and such.

All consoles battle for Gamers time. So sure someone could own multiple systems, but what systems they are playing and how much they are playing does make a difference. Also most families can't afford to buy all three systems. Maybe they can only afford 1 or maybe 2. Some families have kids and will have multiple Switches. Will they buy multiple PS4's? Multiple Xbox's? Of course one consoles success impacts another. And of course there are ways one console can improve their performance.



TheBlackNaruto said:
So PS4 being close to the Switch in the US during Smash week means that the sites numbers are off? I mean it is only one week lol. It could very well be way bigger the next couple of weeks the closer it gets to Christmas. I think some people are just too quick to jump the gun on some things Nothing wrong with waiting and seeing how the rest of the month turns out.....geesh people.

OT

If true then wow this will be a HUGE month for the Switch but then did anyone REALLY doubt that it would be lol. Especially with the monster that is Smash! None the less I can't wait to get the concrete numbers!

There is nothing wrong with questioning this sites numbers when they appear off either.

Trusted insiders who have nearly perfect track records are saying PS4 will likely be under 1 million for December, if these PS4 numbers are true than PS4 sales would have to drop significantly leading up to Christmas which just doesnt happen.

There is no doubt in my mind that PS4 will be adjusted down on this site.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

RolStoppable said:
super_etecoon said:
Either way you look at this, you've got to give Nintendo credit for keeping up with demand of the Switch. I haven't seen any retailers run out of the system except maybe during its first month on the market. Considering the abysmal failure the WiiU was, it shows the confidence Nintendo had in the Switch and their foresightedness to allow for increased production if it were successful, unlike the Wii era. I'll be very curious, though, if they will set as ambitious of numbers for their projections for 2019 as they did for 2018. The fact that their numbers aren't in line with their very high projections for this year has been more of a story than their true success almost. Of course, maybe they'll double down after actually hitting that crazy target if December's sales are what we are seeing rumored here.

Wii production was higher than Switch production. Wii saw a more prolonged shortage because demand for it was significantly higher than for Switch, especially in the USA which you base your anecdote on. In the USA Wii was supply constrained throughout 2008 (its second year) despite selling a whopping 10m units; Switch in 2018 (its second year) is heading for 6m.

Nintendo's projection for the fiscal year ending March 2020 will likely be very similar to whatever Switch manages in the fiscal year ending March 2019, so I expect that they'll take a more conservative approach despite the plan to launch a revision during that fiscal year.

If Nintendo realy hit 20m target with launch price this FY, I can bet that next year when they will have much stronger lineup, very possible price cut and revision, they will forecast something closer to 25m instead of 20m.



MasonADC said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
So PS4 being close to the Switch in the US during Smash week means that the sites numbers are off? I mean it is only one week lol. It could very well be way bigger the next couple of weeks the closer it gets to Christmas. I think some people are just too quick to jump the gun on some things Nothing wrong with waiting and seeing how the rest of the month turns out.....geesh people.

OT

If true then wow this will be a HUGE month for the Switch but then did anyone REALLY doubt that it would be lol. Especially with the monster that is Smash! None the less I can't wait to get the concrete numbers!

If ps4 numbers are truly tracking to be under or at a million, the next two weeks would be significantly lower than this week, which wouldn't make much sense as they are the weeks leading up to Christmas 

That's IF that is true that the PS4 will be under a million. And also with the PS4 being the only console out of the 3 with no major deals it wouldn't even be surprising if it was much lower. Holidays people looking at the best deals etc then yeah the PS4 would indeed be much lower. So we will see what the next couple of weeks look like.

zorg1000 said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
So PS4 being close to the Switch in the US during Smash week means that the sites numbers are off? I mean it is only one week lol. It could very well be way bigger the next couple of weeks the closer it gets to Christmas. I think some people are just too quick to jump the gun on some things Nothing wrong with waiting and seeing how the rest of the month turns out.....geesh people.

OT

If true then wow this will be a HUGE month for the Switch but then did anyone REALLY doubt that it would be lol. Especially with the monster that is Smash! None the less I can't wait to get the concrete numbers!

There is nothing wrong with questioning this sites numbers when they appear off either.

Trusted insiders who have nearly perfect track records are saying PS4 will likely be under 1 million for December, if these PS4 numbers are true than PS4 sales would have to drop significantly leading up to Christmas which just doesnt happen.

There is no doubt in my mind that PS4 will be adjusted down on this site.

There is never anything wrong with questioning the numbers on the site. It just seems to happen more when numbers don't line up with what people think. Heck the site was way off on Spiderman month. But most of the people doing the questioning now said the numbers looked fine and vice versa. And having a near perfect record and being perfect are not the same. So they could be wrong about the PS4 being under a million. But if they are correct then it would not be surprising to see the PS4 sales slow down in the next couple of weeks due to it having no real deals while the others do. MS huge deal and the Switch having that Monster that is Smash. Now will there be adjustments for sure it is the holidays there are ALWAYS adjustments. So for me I just feel it is best to just wait things out.

SpokenTruth said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
So PS4 being close to the Switch in the US during Smash week means that the sites numbers are off? I mean it is only one week lol.

Not exactly but the site has recently made it known it lost two of its major tracking sources and starting with the new year will only report officially provided numbers.

Meaning the numbers are less accurate now and not just because the PS4 and Switch are close but because they are now having to make wider ranging estimations which are currently at odds with well established insiders suggesting the numbers are not this close.

Yep I remember they made it know. Which I also know that means the numbers will be less accurate. But this questioning is only really targeted at the PS4 which is odd. Why would the other 2 not be off as well then? That's why I was like so it is wrong just because the PS4 is close to the Switch. Because that didn't make sense to me. Heck the Switch still sold what like 200k more units that the PS4 had a huge week over week jump in EVERY region. So I guess I just didn't see the big issue.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23