zorg1000 said:
Let's Go did 3 million in 3 days, its definitely crossing 10 million. |
Yea I guess you are right, just got a bit confused bc of japans sales
How many NS games will sell more than 10M copies? | |||
1-5 | 3 | 2.73% | |
5-10 | 28 | 25.45% | |
10-15 | 56 | 50.91% | |
15-20 | 12 | 10.91% | |
20 + | 11 | 10.00% | |
Total: | 110 |
zorg1000 said:
Let's Go did 3 million in 3 days, its definitely crossing 10 million. |
Yea I guess you are right, just got a bit confused bc of japans sales
I'm going predict around 12 possibly.
BOTW*
SMO*
MK8*
Smash Ultimate
Splatoon 2
Pokemon LG
Animal Crossing
Pokemon Gen 8
Pokemon Secondary Title (either a remake or gen 9)**
Tomodachi**
NSMBU Deluxe
Luigi's Mansion
* = Already crossed 10m
**= Possible future games that are likely to be made.
Splatoon 2 will get there too. I also have a gut feeling that Luigi's Mansion 3 make it. It did ~5m on GC and 3DS, and I really see it growing on Switch (like pretty much every Nintendo IP is growing).
Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won
LipeJJ said: I also have a gut feeling that Luigi's Mansion 3 make it. It did ~5m on GC and 3DS, and I really see it growing on Switch (like pretty much every Nintendo IP is growing). |
Luigi's Mansion did 3.33 million on Gamecube and 5.75 million on 3DS as of Dec 2017 (will likely finish around 6m).
It's a candidate for 10m but I'm going to go with 7-8 million.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
Luigi's Mansion did 3.33 million on Gamecube and 5.75 million on 3DS as of Dec 2017 (will likely finish around 6m). It's a candidate for 10m but I'm going to go with 7-8 million. |
Oh, I somehow thought it did 4.5m on GC. Thanks for the tip, Zorg!
And yeah, if LM2 is around 6m, I think 7m~8m is a safe number for LM3 on Switch.
Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won
Already:
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
Super Mario Odyssey
Guaranteed:
Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee
Pokemon Gen 8
Pokemon Gen 9
Pokemon Gen 4 remakes
Splatoon 2
Animal Crossing Switch
Possibilities:
Super Mario Party
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe
Puncher's Chance, but Unlikely:
Luigi's Mansion 3
That's all I've got at the moment and even then, Gen 9 and Gen 4 remakes are just hypothetical.
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The one I'm most volatile on is NSMBUD, like I wouldn't be surprised to see 10 million plus, but I feel like it could also sell like 3-5 million. Yes we have MK8D as reference for how a Wii U port of a reliable 1st party title can perform, but MK8D didn't face the same competition from other 1st party titles like NSMBUD will. Now we have the big 4 plus Let's Go, Mario Party, and Smash. A new Switch owner has a great array of titles to choose from to purchase with their system. I guess time will tell, the only certain is of course the legs will be insane.
PAOerfulone said: Already: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Super Smash Bros. Ultimate The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Super Mario Odyssey Guaranteed: Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee Pokemon Gen 8 Pokemon Gen 9 Pokemon Gen 4 remakes Splatoon 2 Animal Crossing Switch Possibilities: Super Mario Party New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe Puncher's Chance, but Unlikely: Luigi's Mansion 3 That's all I've got at the moment and even then, Gen 9 and Gen 4 remakes are just hypothetical. |
Oh, yeah, completly forgot about Super Mario Party. I'm thinking it will ship 5m this quarter, so it has a decent chance at reaching 10m eventually. Btw, I would say Luigi's Mansion falls in the same category as it (a possibility, not a wild card really).
Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won
PAOerfulone said: Already: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Super Smash Bros. Ultimate The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Super Mario Odyssey Guaranteed: Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee Pokemon Gen 8 Pokemon Gen 9 Pokemon Gen 4 remakes Splatoon 2 Animal Crossing Switch Possibilities: Super Mario Party New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe Puncher's Chance, but Unlikely: Luigi's Mansion 3 That's all I've got at the moment and even then, Gen 9 and Gen 4 remakes are just hypothetical. |
I would add a new 3d mario game (Odyssey came early so I guess they will have the time to release a new one)!
Also what about mario maker 2? First one did great for wii U (around 4M)
NightlyPoe said:
I've been seeing Tomodachi and Luigi's Mansion on a few of these lists, so I'm not picking on you. But I really have to wonder what makes anyone think these games will cross that threshold seeing as neither series has even approached 10 million. Not saying it's impossible, but it strikes me as rather unlikely. 10 million is a rather huge number of games being sold. Granted, the Switch seems to be a software sales beast, particularly for 1st party games, but even top-tier series like Zelda have trouble getting up to those heights. I mean, Luigi's Mansion is an IP that's only had one sequel since it was first released in 2001. If the series had that much juice in it, you'd think it wouldn't take 18 years and 3 console generations for them to finally give us another home console release. As for Tomadachi... I don't get it. |
They both sold ~6 million on 3DS so I guess people think since many series are showing growth on Switch that these will as well.
I dont see 10 million happening but I could see moderate growth happening so 7-8 million.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.