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Forums - Sales Discussion - Hypothetical: If Kingdom Hearts 3 released on Switch...

super_etecoon on 28 December 2018

First off, I don't for a moment think Kingdom Hearts 3, or any of the series for that matter, is coming to the Switch.  I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility, especially considering the Final Fantasy release schedule for next year, but this thread isn't to speculate about whether it will be ported to the Switch now or ever.

But...I do want to know how many units you think Kingdom Hearts 3 would have sold LTD on the Switch if it had released alongside the Xbox One and PS4 versions.  Do you think it would have been a system seller?  And finally, since we're here and I'm not sure there's already a thread for it, what do you think the ratio will be for sales between the XBoxOne and PS4 versions?



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AngryLittleAlchemist on 28 December 2018

I'm curious what the sales for Kingdom Hearts 3 in general will be. The first two games "only" sold 6.4 and 4.3 mil respectively, which was a lot for the Playstation 2 era but put it about on par with series like Metal Gear Solid. Now with software sales being absolutely insane and digital taking over, as well as Kingdom Hearts 3 being one of the most hyped games of the generation and having years and years of hype being built up, I think Kingdom Hearts 3 has a chance to end up with a Uncharted 4/Breath of the Wild situation, where it easily outsells all the other games in the series and goes far beyond what they were able to accomplish.

Anyways, if Kingdom Hearts 3 was on Switch, it would easily outsell the Xbox One version. And it would absolutely be a system seller considering the appeal that Nintendo and Disney has with kids. I assume the PS4 version would still sell better by a decent margin because that's where the fanbase is already.

I think the sales difference between PS4 and Xbox One will be 70% PS4 sales and 30% Xbox One sales.



Cloudman on 28 December 2018

I don't think it would sell as well as the PS4 version, but maybe be on par with the Xbox version or even pass it. I think the player base of the Switch would be more interested in it compared to the Xbox base.



 

              

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TheBraveGallade on 28 December 2018

I'd say 50/40/10 split globally, PS4/switch/xbox.

Where it would make a HUGE difference is Japan, where switch has already over taken OG/slim PS4 numbers.



Shiken on 28 December 2018
TheBraveGallade said:
I'd say 50/40/10 split globally, PS4/switch/xbox.

Where it would make a HUGE difference is Japan, where switch has already over taken OG/slim PS4 numbers.

Pretty much this



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Green098 on 28 December 2018

If it were released late I think it would probably do on par with Kingdom Hearts 3DS: Dream Drop Distance on 3DS which sold 1.6 million.

...alongside day 1 probably about at least 60% of PS4 sales.

Last edited by Green098 - on 28 December 2018

Intrinsic on 28 December 2018
TheBraveGallade said:
I'd say 50/40/10 split globally, PS4/switch/xbox.

Where it would make a HUGE difference is Japan, where switch has already over taken OG/slim PS4 numbers.

More like 70/20/10, PS4/NS/XB1.

90M vs 30M install base......

What I don't get is why they didn't release the game in december.  



V-r0cK on 28 December 2018

All I know is that it will sell better than the XBO, but not even close to the PS4.



TheBraveGallade on 29 December 2018
Bristow9091 said:

There's still a chance the Kingdom Hearts collections could make it to XBO/Switch to be honest, and I'd like to think it'll happen at some point... Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster says "Only on PlayStation" on the cover, yet it's releasing next year on XBO/Switch and is already out on PC. Kingdom Hearts is pretty famous for its ridiculous story which spans over multiple games and is a pain in the arse to follow, so I feel XBO owners won't be getting the full experience and will be left clueless for the most part if they're only playing Kingdom Hearts 3, so for that reason alone, whether it's a good or poor reason, I do think they'll come over to other consoles.

As for sales, I think if Kingdom Hearts 3 were to release on Switch it'd sell better than on XBO just in Japan alone, I mean, it's Nintendo AND handheld, that seems to be a big factor in the Japanese market, although considering the franchise is more associated with PlayStation, I still think PS4 would outsell it there regardless. If I'm to guess an overall split in sales, I'd actually put it somewhere around the 65/20/15 mark for PS4/Switch/XBO respectively. The reason I've picked this split is because, so far according to our physical sales numbers, Final Fantasy XV has sold 5.01m on PS4 and 1.11m on XBO. Of course, it's a completely different game, but Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts (and Dragon Quest) are the biggest franchises by Square Enix, so I'd imagine a similar sales split too, but I had to adjust it to account for the Switch too.

I also think Kingdom Hearts 3 will be the best selling game in the franchise, maybe even breaking 10m sales between the PS4 and XBO, simply because it's incredibly hyped up right now, so many people are looking forward to FINALLY playing it after what feels like forever, and this gen we've seen games shoot up into the top spot of their respective franchises in terms of sales, and I can't see this being much different either.

Compared to FF, kingdom hearts lines up more along the things a Nintendo audience REALLY likes and less so the PS4 and even less on xbone. Which is why I opted for 50/40/10. Thinking again might be closer to 47/38/15... But still.

In Japan it would just do 35/64/1.



Soundwave on 29 December 2018

If Kingdom Hearts 3 could run on the Switch IMO it would sell 3+ million worldwide, maybe more. 3x Octopath Traveller on a larger userbase sounds about right.