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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 51 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - December 17-23, 2018

Miyamotoo on 26 December 2018

01./01. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 452.617 / 2.079.769 (+11%)
02./05. [NSW] Super Mario Party # (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 155.060 / 742.355 (+59%)
03./04. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! # (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980) - 144.770 / 1.265.790 (+33%)
06./07. [NSW] Minecraft # (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600) - 48.359 / 479.769 (+75%)
07./06. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 47.096 / 1.958.270 (+60%)
08./08. [NSW] Splatoon 2 # (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 41.405 / 2.809.117 (+53%)
11./11. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} (¥5.980) - 21.643 / 691.939 (+80%)
12./09. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey # (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 21.384 / 1.902.226 (+48%)
14./10. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 16.093 / 1.212.043 (+18%)
15./14. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} (¥6.100) - 15.580 / 259.863 (+93%)
19./20. [NSW] Mario Tennis Aces (Nintendo) {2018.06.22} (¥5.980) - 10.957 / 392.757 (+106%)



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Kjartan on 26 December 2018

Japanese PS4 players don't buy physical games? I know Digital ratio is higher for this platform but I was expecting a least one or two games to rise from the ashes.



NNID/PSN: Kung_Kjartan

Megiddo on 26 December 2018

Here is the week 51 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD % Goal AWN (Change)
PS4 75,793 -135,303 1,653,601 82.6% (+4.3) 346,399 (+135,303)
Switch 278,701 -180,952 3,359,395 83.9% (+6.9) 640,605 (+180,952)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

Somewhat surprising as both consoles are down for week 51. On Era they surmise that Christmas Eve not being in week 51 resulted in weaker numbers than expected which is possible. Nonetheless it looks like Switch will be the closest to its goal by percentage and it looks like the PS4 will be the closest to its goal by units. After an interesting year both systems seem to have performed (barring any craziness in the final week) around the same relative to their set goals.

Personal Estimates


NS: 120k, 145k, 240k, 200k, 295k, 250k = 1.25m would end just above 3.5 mil for the calendar year.

PS4: 20k, 25k, 30k, 25k, 40k, 30k = 170k would end up just above 1.5 mil for the calendar year.



DavidValbu on 26 December 2018
Dr.Vita said:

PS4 selling very strong, Switch numbers below than what most people expected.

Dragon Quest Builders 2 with a mediocre first week, hoping for strong legs.

PS4 - 278.701

Switch - 75.793

I agreed with you Armored Titan, PS4 selling very strong and Switch below than what most people expected... wait ... :)

 




zorg1000 on 26 December 2018
drinkandswim said:
zorg1000 said:

Possible by unrealistic.....isnt that a bit of an oxymoron?

Sort of but not. Its an unrealistic expectation. Why does the Switch success rely on beating 3DS? The Switch is already successful. If the Switch is ahead of PS4's install base by next year (which it will be) that to me is a success. So is it possible that Switch reaches 3DS Japan Install base? Sure. It isn't what I would project or expect though based on what I know right now. 

I get what you're saying, I just thought was wording was a bit off but I agree with your point overall.

Switch does not need to beat 3DS to be a success, if it sells ~20 million that will be a huge success right there in the NES/SNES/PS1/PS2/GBA/PSP/3DS range (17m-25m).



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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MrWayne on 26 December 2018
Megiddo said:

Here is the week 51 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD % Goal AWN (Change)
PS4 75,793 -135,303 1,653,601 82.6% (+4.3) 346,399 (+135,303)
Switch 278,701 -180,952 3,359,395 83.9% (+6.9) 640,605 (+180,952)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

Somewhat surprising as both consoles are down for week 51. On Era they surmise that Christmas Eve not being in week 51 resulted in weaker numbers than expected which is possible. Nonetheless it looks like Switch will be the closest to its goal by percentage and it looks like the PS4 will be the closest to its goal by units. After an interesting year both systems seem to have performed (barring any craziness in the final week) around the same relative to their set goals.

Personal Estimates


NS: 120k, 145k, 240k, 200k, 295k, 250k = 1.25m would end just above 3.5 mil for the calendar year.

PS4: 20k, 25k, 30k, 25k, 40k, 30k = 170k would end up just above 1.5 mil for the calendar year.

I always wonder where these set goals you use in your sheet came from. Are These your own estimates or official forecasts from Nintendo and Sony?



zorg1000 on 26 December 2018
MrWayne said:
Megiddo said:

Here is the week 51 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD % Goal AWN (Change)
PS4 75,793 -135,303 1,653,601 82.6% (+4.3) 346,399 (+135,303)
Switch 278,701 -180,952 3,359,395 83.9% (+6.9) 640,605 (+180,952)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

Somewhat surprising as both consoles are down for week 51. On Era they surmise that Christmas Eve not being in week 51 resulted in weaker numbers than expected which is possible. Nonetheless it looks like Switch will be the closest to its goal by percentage and it looks like the PS4 will be the closest to its goal by units. After an interesting year both systems seem to have performed (barring any craziness in the final week) around the same relative to their set goals.

Personal Estimates


NS: 120k, 145k, 240k, 200k, 295k, 250k = 1.25m would end just above 3.5 mil for the calendar year.

PS4: 20k, 25k, 30k, 25k, 40k, 30k = 170k would end up just above 1.5 mil for the calendar year.

I always wonder where these set goals you use in your sheet came from. Are These your own estimates or official forecasts from Nintendo and Sony?

Just general estimate from people on this site early in the year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Farsala on 26 December 2018
Kjartan said:
Japanese PS4 players don't buy physical games? I know Digital ratio is higher for this platform but I was expecting a least one or two games to rise from the ashes.

Would you say the same thing last year?

Japanese PS4 players buy a lot of PS4 games physically and digitally. Sales after all are not just top 20.



drinkandswim on 26 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
drinkandswim said:

Sort of but not. Its an unrealistic expectation. Why does the Switch success rely on beating 3DS? The Switch is already successful. If the Switch is ahead of PS4's install base by next year (which it will be) that to me is a success. So is it possible that Switch reaches 3DS Japan Install base? Sure. It isn't what I would project or expect though based on what I know right now. 

I get what you're saying, I just thought was wording was a bit off but I agree with your point overall.

Switch does not need to beat 3DS to be a success, if it sells ~20 million that will be a huge success right there in the NES/SNES/PS1/PS2/GBA/PSP/3DS range (17m-25m)

The other thing people aren't taking into account is that the 3DS launched at $249 and was dropped to $169 after 6 months due to being well below forecasted Sales. Nintendo Switch hasn't undergone a price drop yet. Nintendo 3DS sales include the original 3DS, original 2DS, new 3DS, and New 2DS. PS4 Lifetime Sales include both the original PS4 and the PS4 Pro. So Technically Nintendo Switch's install base is already larger than the PS4. And its tough to compare a $300 system to a $170 system or less. There is a 2DS model I believe as low as $79.99 right now. 



thismeintiel on 26 December 2018
Megiddo said:

Here is the week 51 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD % Goal AWN (Change)
PS4 75,793 -135,303 1,653,601 82.6% (+4.3) 346,399 (+135,303)
Switch 278,701 -180,952 3,359,395 83.9% (+6.9) 640,605 (+180,952)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

Somewhat surprising as both consoles are down for week 51. On Era they surmise that Christmas Eve not being in week 51 resulted in weaker numbers than expected which is possible. Nonetheless it looks like Switch will be the closest to its goal by percentage and it looks like the PS4 will be the closest to its goal by units. After an interesting year both systems seem to have performed (barring any craziness in the final week) around the same relative to their set goals.

Personal Estimates


NS: 120k, 145k, 240k, 200k, 295k, 250k = 1.25m would end just above 3.5 mil for the calendar year.

PS4: 20k, 25k, 30k, 25k, 40k, 30k = 170k would end up just above 1.5 mil for the calendar year.

Looks like the Switch will end up at ~3.64M, ~360K short of its goal, and PS4 will end up at ~1.73M, ~270K short of its goal. Well, if things remain flat next week. Can't really remember how Week 52 usually performs compared to 51.