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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 50 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - December 10 -16 2018

thismeintiel on 20 December 2018
Megiddo said:

Here is the week 50 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD % Goal AWN (Change)
PS4 81,594 -86,334 1,577,808 78.9% (+4.1) 211,096 (+43,168)
Switch 281,213 -118,960 3,080,694 77.0% (+7.0) 459,653 (+59,480)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

Switch continues amazing sales by staying flat the week after Smash. PS4 with a slight rise. Switch is now over 3 million and PS4 is now over 1.5 million. In terms of percentages the Switch is now less than 2% away from overtaking the PS4 which should easily happen in next week's numbers. For my predictions I expected a soft decline after Smash but was off once more and the PS4 has already far surpassed what I thought it would do before the big promotion was announced..

Personal Estimates


NS: 120k, 145k, 240k, 200k, 295k, 250k = 1.25m would end just above 3.5 mil for the calendar year.

PS4: 20k, 25k, 30k, 25k, 40k, 30k = 170k would end up just above 1.5 mil for the calendar year.

I expected a large rise after this week for the Switch, and I still do. Week 51 should be massive.

Looks like they are both going to be ~90% of their goal.  Most likely with Switch being closer.



 

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Bofferbrauer2 on 20 December 2018
kirby007 said:
The switch dropped like a brick horrible sales after smash

Yeah it fell of a cliff 9 consoles high!



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wombat123 on 21 December 2018
Nuvendil said:
Medisti said:

Capcom aren't going to win any business awards (or much in the way of sales) for their handling of the Switch so far. The thing has been out nearly two years and the way the wind is blowing in Japan is pretty obvious at this point, yet Capcom is still dragging their feet. Have they released a single non-port other than Mega Man 11?

EDIT: I looked it up, and no. No they have not. Ports and legacy collections. Mega Man 11 is the only game that was released in the window with other platforms, unless I missed one.

And they couldn't even be bothered to put both Mega Man and Mega Man X collections entirely on their carts either.  Capcom is, hands down, the most disappointing 3rd party actively supporting the platform.  Obviously better than not being there, but not by much.  E freaking A has spent more development resources on the SINGLE franchise they have on the Switch than Capcom has in total.  The ports are just that low effort.

I'll give Capcom until the end of 2019.  If we don't get any substantial announcements/releases other than small budget games and ports then I'm going to assume that they have no significant plans for the Switch going forward and are all-in on the western console audience.  At this point, the most I expect from them is to designate the Monster Hunter B-team as their Switch-exclusive Monster Hunter team.  That's it, that's the best case scenario I can see in-terms of major Capcom support on the Switch.  The only way I see them doing more is if the Switch balloons into a DS-level mega hit and both the PS5/neXtBox flounder out of the gate.

Last edited by wombat123 - on 21 December 2018

Dr.Vita on 21 December 2018
Kerotan said:
Miyamotoo said:

I was very clear, "PS4 has good sales thanks to great deal", if someone sees something negative or something that downplays PS4 in that post, that's his problem, because there is nothing that's negative or downplaying, of inaccurate in my post.

Exactly. As I was asking you were just complimenting the good sales of the ps4. 




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outlawauron on 22 December 2018
Nuvendil said:
Megiddo said:

I'm 99.9% positive GE3 will be ported to the Switch. Hopefully it can do well there as God Eater was initially a portable franchise. Sticking to PS4 only doesn't make much sense.

It also thrived in the absence of Monster Hunter.  PS4 HAS Monster Hunter.  And MHW has a much larger budget and it definitely shows in the presentation so not only is GE3 having to compete with MH, it is getting shown up.  Going PS4 only was very foolish given the history of the franchise.

Unfortunately, porting it to Switch will probably not help now.  It will be old news and for midtier franchises that's very detrimental.  It won't hurt, but this should have had a Switch version from the start.

I do think that it definitely has a lot to do with it. Playstation fans who were into the genre could get something similar and of high quality in things like God Eater or Freedom Wars, but with the main attraction already available and receiving free updates throughout the year. Much less incentive to jump at new hunting game.

Megiddo said:
outlawauron said:

God Eater 3 didn't do so hot. Dropping the Vita version from these games is leading to very little conversion to PS4/NSW versions. Can still be salvaged from Asian and Western sales, but at least it didn't flop completely.

I'm 99.9% positive GE3 will be ported to the Switch. Hopefully it can do well there as God Eater was initially a portable franchise. Sticking to PS4 only doesn't make much sense.

No reason to believe it would have saved it. In other instances of new versions going from PSP/Vita/console to PS4/Switch, there's still been a rather large drop off.



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Kerotan on 22 December 2018

This thread is very quiet this week, everyone must be over in the era one!

So amazon Japan. Smash and switch are king but ps4 is right up there at #5 and DQB2 at 7. I wonder will both have a decent week 51. I hope so.



animegaming on 22 December 2018
Kerotan said:
This thread is very quiet this week, everyone must be over in the era one!

So amazon Japan. Smash and switch are king but ps4 is right up there at #5 and DQB2 at 7. I wonder will both have a decent week 51. I hope so.

Well I don't have an era account, but there is a lot of interesting discussions going on in their thread. Like last night when they talked how Monster Hunter become one of the best selling games in the west this year, while Dragon Quest 11 flopped in the west. Admittedly wish I did had one just so I can throw my two cents in that topic since I came to the realization that Dragon Quest in the west is pretty similar to Star Wars in China right now.  



PwerlvlAmy on 22 December 2018
Kerotan said:
This thread is very quiet this week, everyone must be over in the era one!

So amazon Japan. Smash and switch are king but ps4 is right up there at #5 and DQB2 at 7. I wonder will both have a decent week 51. I hope so.

Prob because there's really not that much to discuss. Nintendo dominating everyone in Japan and that's really only the noteworthy news. Not too many ways it can be repeated. So I guess that's why this thread has died down a bit. Next weeks thread should be more entertaining though.



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LGBTDBZBBQ on 22 December 2018
PwerlvlAmy said:
Kerotan said:
This thread is very quiet this week, everyone must be over in the era one!

So amazon Japan. Smash and switch are king but ps4 is right up there at #5 and DQB2 at 7. I wonder will both have a decent week 51. I hope so.

Prob because there's really not that much to discuss. Nintendo dominating everyone in Japan and that's really only the noteworthy news. Not too many ways it can be repeated. So I guess that's why this thread has died down a bit. Next weeks thread should be more entertaining though.

Isn't next week thread just basically this thread part 2? 



Kerotan on 22 December 2018
PwerlvlAmy said:
Kerotan said:
This thread is very quiet this week, everyone must be over in the era one!

So amazon Japan. Smash and switch are king but ps4 is right up there at #5 and DQB2 at 7. I wonder will both have a decent week 51. I hope so.

Prob because there's really not that much to discuss. Nintendo dominating everyone in Japan and that's really only the noteworthy news. Not too many ways it can be repeated. So I guess that's why this thread has died down a bit. Next weeks thread should be more entertaining though.

But they've always been dominant throughout the history of these threads. Is everyone off drinking mulled wine? Or maybe busy on discord :)