By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
AsGryffynn said:
JRPGfan said:

Also the US had terms, when they proposed a trade deal.
From a position of strength, the US is gonna screw over the UK in any deal they make imo.

The idea was that trade partners would only constitute an small part of trade, so that if one partner was unfavorable, you could just swap them with another one with little effect. In other words, many small partners instead of monolithic trading blocks. 

The problem is the rest of the world doesnt play by those rules.
Everyone thats anyone, is in a tradeing block.

The only ones not in one, are small crappy nations that ll then get bent over, in any trade deals they do.
The reason the tradeing blocks have members, is because it works to your benefit to be in one.
You make deals from positions of strength, through unity.



Around the Network
JRPGfan said:
AsGryffynn said:

The idea was that trade partners would only constitute an small part of trade, so that if one partner was unfavorable, you could just swap them with another one with little effect. In other words, many small partners instead of monolithic trading blocks. 

The problem is the rest of the world doesnt play by those rules.
Everyone thats anyone, is in a tradeing block.

The only ones not in one, are small crappy nations that ll then get bent over, in any trade deals they do.
The reason the tradeing blocks have members, is because it works to your benefit to be in one.
You make deals from positions of strength, through unity.

To elaborate on this, just take a look onto this picture:

Only the countries in gray are not part of a trade bloc, and even then, Western Sahara is technically part of Morocco.

As you can see, the only countries without the trade blocs are either totally dependent on their neighbors anyway (Mongolia), are under severe sanctions (Iran, North Korea), have no stable government (Somalia), too new (South Sudan), or either have not much to trade for or are too insignificant so they are left alone (what's left). UK will join the gray area when they left the EU and have to deal with those colored blocs for the most part, which united are generally much bigger than the UK and can therefor set the terms of a trade deal.



RolStoppable said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

To elaborate on this, just take a look onto this picture:

(map)

Only the countries in gray are not part of a trade bloc, and even then, Western Sahara is technically part of Morocco.

As you can see, the only countries without the trade blocs are either totally dependent on their neighbors anyway (Mongolia), are under severe sanctions (Iran, North Korea), have no stable government (Somalia), too new (South Sudan), or either have not much to trade for or are too insignificant so they are left alone (what's left). UK will join the gray area when they left the EU and have to deal with those colored blocs for the most part, which united are generally much bigger than the UK and can therefor set the terms of a trade deal.

I think the most likely result is that the UK will be able to get arrangements similar to Switzerland and Norway who are wealthy states without being EU members.

The bigger question mark is if the UK will remain the UK or if Scotland breaks free.

Keep in mind that a lot of those agreements that Switzerland and Norway have are from their EFTA Membership, and especially from a time where the EFTA was much bigger than it is today. However, the UK could rejoin the EFTA (UK was part of the EFTA before joining the EU, as did Portugal, Austria, Denmark, Sweden and Finland), as while they do have a trade policy and joint agreements, the EFTA also allows member states to have separate bilateral agreements with other countries/trade blocs.



RolStoppable said:

I think the most likely result is that the UK will be able to get arrangements similar to Switzerland and Norway who are wealthy states without being EU members.

Boris has already said we have no intention of forcing the country to align with EU standards. Given how only ~6% of UK companies export to the continent, this makes complete sense. That means EFTA is off the table. He also made it law that a clean break, World Trade Brexit is back on the table (aka 'No Deal') if there's no agreement with the EU by the end of next year.

Merkel and Macron seemed to be so concerned by Boris' recent statements that we're being used in the same sentence as China and the US when it comes to economic competitors/rivals to the EU.

Funny how everyone is now starting to see the trade advantages of Brexit for the UK once we got rid of politicians who only wanted BRINO.

The bigger question mark is if the UK will remain the UK or if Scotland breaks free.

'Break free', lol. Concern trolling is fun but the reality is that most Scots don't give a fuck about the EU. Most of England wasn't that concerned either until the ruling class thought it was a good idea to ignore our vote. Ignoring 4 votes where Brexit won was too much to the point that even the North went blue.

Scotland budgeted it's independence on oil @$120 a barrel and still lost 55.3% to 44.7%. It's currently at $60. A ref held tomorrow would be 60-40 minimum.

As a member of the EU you should be pleased. England freed from the drag of Northern Ireland and Scotland (and Wales) would be even more competitive.

Last edited by Pyro as Bill - on 26 December 2019

Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:
RolStoppable said:

I think the most likely result is that the UK will be able to get arrangements similar to Switzerland and Norway who are wealthy states without being EU members.

Boris has already said we have no intention of forcing the country to align with EU standards. Given how only ~6% of UK companies export to the continent, this makes complete sense. That means EFTA is off the table. He also made it law that a clean break, World Trade Brexit is back on the table (aka 'No Deal') if there's no agreement with the EU by the end of next year.

Merkel and Macron seemed to be so concerned by Boris' recent statements that we're being used in the same sentence as China and the US when it comes to economic competitors/rivals to the EU.

Funny how everyone is now starting to see the trade advantages of Brexit for the UK once we got rid of politicians who only wanted BRINO.

The bigger question mark is if the UK will remain the UK or if Scotland breaks free.

'Break free', lol. Concern trolling is fun but the reality is that most Scots don't give a fuck about the EU. Most of England wasn't that concerned either until the ruling class thought it was a good idea to ignore our vote. Ignoring 4 votes where Brexit won was too much to the point that even the North went blue.

Scotland budgeted it's independence on oil @$120 a barrel and still lost 55.3% to 44.7%. It's currently at $60. A ref held tomorrow would be 60-40 minimum.

As a member of the EU you should be pleased. England freed from the drag of Northern Ireland and Scotland (and Wales) would be even more competitive.

They lost the referendum because they would also leave the EU if they left the UK at the time, and nobody wanted that. That's the main reason why that referendum failed. But now that the UK is leaving anyway the only thing really in the way of scottish independence is Johnson as he doesn't want to allow a vote.



Around the Network
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Pyro as Bill said:

They lost the referendum because they would also leave the EU if they left the UK at the time, and nobody wanted that. That's the main reason why that referendum failed. But now that the UK is leaving anyway the only thing really in the way of scottish independence is Johnson as he doesn't want to allow a vote.

This is just more of the same echo chamber nonsense we've heard for the past 3 years. Scotland had a ref 5 years ago and the polls have barely moved since.

They lost because their economic predictions were a joke, they had no answer to what currency they'd use other than threatening to default on their debt if we don't allow them a seat at the Bank of England so they can print English pounds. Add a hard border and no guaranteed free trade deal and it's virtually a cert that the Scots will stay in the UK.

If the SNP really wanted independence, all they'd have to do is allow England a vote.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

They lost the referendum because they would also leave the EU if they left the UK at the time, and nobody wanted that. That's the main reason why that referendum failed. But now that the UK is leaving anyway the only thing really in the way of scottish independence is Johnson as he doesn't want to allow a vote.

This is just more of the same echo chamber nonsense we've heard for the past 3 years. Scotland had a ref 5 years ago and the polls have barely moved since.

They lost because their economic predictions were a joke, they had no answer to what currency they'd use other than threatening to default on their debt if we don't allow them a seat at the Bank of England so they can print English pounds. Add a hard border and no guaranteed free trade deal and it's virtually a cert that the Scots will stay in the UK.

If the SNP really wanted independence, all they'd have to do is allow England a vote.

Johnson has to allow a vote here, not the SNP. And Johnson has been adamant not to allow a vote on scottish independence. He's too afraid of loosing Scotland.

Also, I find it funny how you point at a poll while you argued in the past that the polls were false and didn't show the will of the people. If that was true for the brexit polls, then the same is true for the scottish independence polls, too.

One thing that the polls also reflect is the fact that the way forward had not been clear. There hasn't been a poll since the election - but the ones since Johnson came to power show that the resistance against independence is waning even in the polls, something that your link also acknowledges to a degree. The difference between staying and leaving had been over 10% since May came into power, but after Johnson did so, it shrank down closer to 5%. And I'm very sure than when the Brexit finally actually happens, support will soar way above the 50%.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

Johnson has to allow a vote here, not the SNP. And Johnson has been adamant not to allow a vote on scottish independence. He's too afraid of loosing Scotland.

Also, I find it funny how you point at a poll while you argued in the past that the polls were false and didn't show the will of the people. If that was true for the brexit polls, then the same is true for the scottish independence polls, too.

The poll on the day of Brexit was 52-48 in favour of staying. Recent polls have shown it at 53 in favour of staying if there was a 2nd ref but the majority of the population is against a 2nd ref. Polls have barely moved in regards to Brexit and Scottish independence.

One thing that the polls also reflect is the fact that the way forward had not been clear. There hasn't been a poll since the election - but the ones since Johnson came to power show that the resistance against independence is waning even in the polls, something that your link also acknowledges to a degree. The difference between staying and leaving had been over 10% since May came into power, but after Johnson did so, it shrank down closer to 5%. And I'm very sure than when the Brexit finally actually happens, support will soar way above the 50%.

The poll I posted shows a 12pt lead with Boris in power.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Johnson has to allow a vote here, not the SNP. And Johnson has been adamant not to allow a vote on scottish independence. He's too afraid of loosing Scotland.

Also, I find it funny how you point at a poll while you argued in the past that the polls were false and didn't show the will of the people. If that was true for the brexit polls, then the same is true for the scottish independence polls, too.

The poll on the day of Brexit was 52-48 in favour of staying. Recent polls have shown it at 53 in favour of staying if there was a 2nd ref but the majority of the population is against a 2nd ref. Polls have barely moved in regards to Brexit and Scottish independence.

One thing that the polls also reflect is the fact that the way forward had not been clear. There hasn't been a poll since the election - but the ones since Johnson came to power show that the resistance against independence is waning even in the polls, something that your link also acknowledges to a degree. The difference between staying and leaving had been over 10% since May came into power, but after Johnson did so, it shrank down closer to 5%. And I'm very sure than when the Brexit finally actually happens, support will soar way above the 50%.

The poll I posted shows a 12pt lead with Boris in power.

Yes, I know, though the real result was 38-48 if we don't exclude the undecided: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9f359xvq6w/TheTimes_191206_Scotland_Results_IndependenceW.pdf

Also, it's a complete outliner right now, most polls are getting close to break even now:

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1039926/exclusive-courier-poll-showing-rise-in-support-for-independence-gives-election-day-boost-to-snp/ 1% difference

https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/W1781w24-Tables-for-publication-061219.pdf 6% difference, outside of the one you posted the one with the biggest win for stay in the UK in the last 2 months

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-11/ipsos-mori-scotland-election-2019-pm-tables.pdf break even

https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/W1781w23-Tables-for-publication-221119.pdf 2% difference

https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/Sunday-Times-Tables-for-publication-111019.pdf 1% difference

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence a little overview

And that's all before the general election. With the conservatives gaining the absolute majority and can now Brexit for sure, I'm very sure the independence movement will gain even more traction.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Pyro as Bill said:

Yes, I know, though the real result was 38-48 if we don't exclude the undecided: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9f359xvq6w/TheTimes_191206_Scotland_Results_IndependenceW.pdf

Also, it's a complete outliner right now, most polls are getting close to break even now:

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1039926/exclusive-courier-poll-showing-rise-in-support-for-independence-gives-election-day-boost-to-snp/ 1% difference

https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/W1781w24-Tables-for-publication-061219.pdf 6% difference, outside of the one you posted the one with the biggest win for stay in the UK in the last 2 months

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-11/ipsos-mori-scotland-election-2019-pm-tables.pdf break even

https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/W1781w23-Tables-for-publication-221119.pdf 2% difference

https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/Sunday-Times-Tables-for-publication-111019.pdf 1% difference

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence a little overview

And that's all before the general election. With the conservatives gaining the absolute majority and can now Brexit for sure, I'm very sure the independence movement will gain even more traction.

'Do you think Scotland should be independent? isn't the same as 'How will you vote in a referendum?'. Everybody learned this lesson in the first indy ref.
The last poll that asked people how they actually intend to vote had 'Remain' with a 17pt lead.
Given your past flawed analysis of UK politics, I'd happily bet you that Scotland will remain in the UK after the next referendum (it'll be in the next parliament if the SNP keep their current support).
"The Tories rose to high 30's after Johnson got elected but are coming crashing down since he humiliated himself in Luxembourg, his failed Prorogation, not being able to win any votes in Parliament..."
"And a new election will just make it worse and solve nothing, as both the big parties loose a lot while the smaller ones win quite a bit, making the balance of powers even more even than they were before."

Honestly, i'm tired of arguing with echo-chamber folk. I don't get why the losing side would rather invent nonsense and play it back to each other instead of engaging with the other side and working out how to improve/compromise/win.

To win an election/referendum, you have to win votes from the opposing team. Playing to your own crowd doesn't work.

Trump is gonna win the next election. Boris will win the next election too and the Left will continue to freak out and act surprised when they lose.

I'm starting to think the Koch Brothers or whoever the rightwing bad guys are these days are secretly funding the Left knowing that any airtime they get results in votes for the opposing team.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!