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Jumpin said:

I hope Bercow considers a job in political media.

That dude has become popular in America of late, as the recent attention of our media to developments in the House of Commons over there has caused people here to notice that the UK has this guy whose job it is to shout "AAWWDUH! AAAWWDUUHH! AAAAAAAAWWWWDDDUUUUUUUUUHHHH!!!" at parliamentarians. I think there's a sense that that's the kind of somewhat awesome thing what we need here in the U.S. to TRY and restore civility to our political discourse.

(But even he gave up.)



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Jaicee said:

I haven't weighed in on Brexit-related news in a while, but I think it's time.

I may be an American, but to be honest probably most of my friends online are British, so I wind up following developments in the UK a lot, on top of which the governmental chaos of this month has made headlines even here (outside of just the usual PBS News Hour coverage and American BBC broadcasts, I mean). Anyway, one theme I keep hearing is that there are likely to be new elections in the relatively near future, as in before Christmas. I'd like to weigh in on that today.

If a new election were to be held and I lived there, I'd vote for the Liberal Democrats. I was initially a big fan of Jeremy Corbyn's left wing, even quasi-socialist, ideas (I am a socialist), but have been underwhelmed by how he has navigated the age of Brexit so far. He clearly supports Brexit in principle and that's his main problem. He and the Labour Party have been remarkably unable to stake out a clear position on the most pressing issue of the day in the UK, which is precisely Brexit. If a no-deal Brexit comes to pass, we are seriously talking about shortages of food and medical supplies and the recolonization of Northern Ireland, with the possibility of resumed armed conflict that that could bring! No other issue can even compare in significance for the UK at this time. Because they can't decide their position on the most basic issue facing the country, Labour has instead focused on, you know, expanding the Gender Recognition Act (de-medicalizing gender identity transition for all legal purposes) and other shit I fail to sympathize with as their leading goals. They've been leading the way on this type of IMO reactionary social policy instead.

This is why the Remain Party came in second place in the British elections to the EU this summer, knocking the Labour Party into third place. The same type of thing could happen in a national election methinks, frankly, considering that the Liberal Democrats have managed to stake out a position of clear and definite opposition to this rolling disaster that has already sent Britain's economy into a state of contraction as of the last quarter and seriously threatens much, much worse. Any new election held in the near future will be a one-issue election essentially; a new referendum on Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party doesn't get that. Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats do.

Jo Swinson's clear and straightforward position is that Article 50 should be revoked, halting the Brexit process. The somehow-governing Conservatives TRIED to make that sound like a scary proposition recently, but the effort backfired spectacularly. A petition to revoke Article 50 has acquired over 6 million signatures, making it the most signed petition in UK history.

(Incidentally, Scotland's highest court yesterday ruled that Boris Johnson's suspension of parliament was illegal. The Irish high court is expected to follow suit on different legal grounds today. I thought these developments were also worth noting as an aside.)

Frankly, Labour should be embarrassed that the neoliberals who run the Liberal Democratic Party, who once propped up a Conservative government themselves earlier this decade, have actually emerged as the main and most principled opposition to the isolationist far right that now governs Conservative Party politics and therefore the UK. They (Labour) can, and I suspect in fact probably will, pay a political price for their relative neutrality on the most important issue of the day.

I agree, Corbyn is killing Labour and Brexit by basically creating a third option (Tories/Brexit Party/UKIP/DUP: Hard Brexit; LibDems/Greens/SNP/Sinn Fein/Alliance/SLDP/Plaid: No Brexit; Labour: Alternative Brexit on his terms. This splinters parliament into 3 groups, with none being strong enough on it's own to force a decision. And we'll be there until they kick Corbyn and choose a side.

Jumpin said:

I hope Bercow considers a job in political media.

I already imagined him as commentator at the primary debate in the US tonight.

ORDAAAAA!

But yeah, would be better fit at the BBC or Guardian for such a role imo



Jaicee said:
Jumpin said:

I hope Bercow considers a job in political media.

That dude has become popular in America of late, as the recent attention of our media to developments in the House of Commons over there has caused people here to notice that the UK has this guy whose job it is to shout "AAWWDUH! AAAWWDUUHH! AAAAAAAAWWWWDDDUUUUUUUUUHHHH!!!" at parliamentarians. I think there's a sense that that's the kind of somewhat awesome thing what we need here in the U.S. to TRY and restore civility to our political discourse.

(But even he gave up.)

I'd see him calling Trump "Be a good boy" like he did to Boris



Bofferbrauer2 said:

I already imagined him as commentator at the primary debate in the US tonight.

ORDAAAAA!

But yeah, would be better fit at the BBC or Guardian for such a role imo

Lol, that actually sounds like an excellent idea (especially after that last debate on July 31st)! Let's make it a movement: Bercow for last-minute Democratic debate moderator!



Bofferbrauer2 said:

I'd see him calling Trump "Be a good boy" like he did to Boris

This is the age of the man-child. It's high time they start getting treated as exactly that.



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Jaicee said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I already imagined him as commentator at the primary debate in the US tonight.

ORDAAAAA!

But yeah, would be better fit at the BBC or Guardian for such a role imo

Lol, that actually sounds like an excellent idea (especially after that last debate on July 31st)! Let's make it a movement: Bercow for last-minute Democratic debate moderator!

When's the next one after the one from tonight? As there will be more than 10 candidates for that one, he could pull double duty on 2 nights in a row. And if it's after October 31st, he's actually free to do so.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

When's the next one after the one from tonight? As there will be more than 10 candidates for that one, he could pull double duty on 2 nights in a row. And if it's after October 31st, he's actually free to do so.

Unfortunately, it's in like mid-October. Damn.



Official UK government report on the expected consequences of a no-deal Brexit:

-Major holdups at channel ports.
-Significant electricity price increases.
-Shortages of certain foods and medicines.
-An increase in the crime rate.

Here's the latest polling date out of the UK concerning party support levels, which I'll below compare to the 2017 election outcome in the popular vote:

2017:

Conservative Party: 42.4%
Labour Party: 40%
Liberal Democrats: 7.4%

NEW POLL:

Conservative Party: 30%
Labour Party: 29%
Liberal Democrats: 17%
Brexit Party: 13%

As you can see, as things presently stand, both of the major parties stand to lose a significant number of votes in any new election, while the Liberal Democrats and Brexit Party pick up the slack and emerge as major players. And that represents a major shift. Just a week ago, there was a survey showing the Conservatives leading by a margin of 14 percentage points. The latest poll suggests that lead is down to just 1%, which would result in an actual reduction of seats held by the Conservative Party. If this trajectory continues (and it probably will), the end result of any new election could very well be the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party becoming genuinely competitive with Labour and the Tories respectively. Party loyalties are shifting fast as Brexit takes over the political debate.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 12 September 2019

Jaicee said:

Official UK government report on the expected consequences of a no-deal Brexit:

-Major holdups at channel ports.
-Significant electricity price increases.
-Shortages of certain foods and medicines.
-An increase in the crime rate.

That same document was leaked back in august,... The released version was altered from "base case" to "worst case".
And then they didnt even want that out, so they wheren't going to release it.
They actually had to vote on weather to make it public, which is why its out now, they forced their hand.

That said, not haveing as easy access to fresh produce, and haveing a few months with a troubled trans periode.... wont kill anyone.

“Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel.” - from the report.

The poor, will be worst off from brexit.



JRPGfan said:

“Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel.” - from the report.

The poor, will be worst off from brexit.

Not just in the short run either, as Brexit proponents insist. The argument I keep hearing from supporters of a no-deal Brexit is that better, replacement trade deals will eventually, maybe three or four years down the road, be struck with the United States and China and everything will come rushing back to better than before, YaY, everyone wins!

First of all, people don't eat in the long run.

Secondly, the premise is total bullshit. The simple, obvious, self-evident fact of the matter is that leaving the EU will leave the UK with far LESS bargaining power, not more. Have you seen the sorts of terms that the Trump Administration and the Chinese government have been throwing around?? The bottom line is that the U.S. and China want a clear and distinct advantage in any such future trading relationship and an isolated country in a state of economic depression would be in no position to negotiate reasonable, equitable, reciprocal terms. The end result of this process is one wherein American and Chinese companies swoop in and take over much of the British economy and treat the British working class (including the specifically English one that voted for Brexit) significantly worse than they are currently being treated. As in fewer unions to protect their economic rights, fewer environmental regulations to protect their health and well-being, etc. That's the great and awesome eventuality that this policy offers unto the United Kingdom's working population.