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Brexit

A good video about democracy at the example of the Brexit vote.

 



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If Theresa May has planned for a World Trade Brexit from the start, she's one of the smartest politicians of all time. If she hasn't and we are to take her at her word, she's probably the dumbest politician in our history.

Either the law stands and we 'crash out' (lol) on the 29th or we're kept in and in 5-10yrs, the English (2M+ Brexit majority) declare independence from the UK.

I'm happy either way.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Bill Cash, Steve Baker and Douglas Carswell were our only MPs who opposed/questioned the bank bailouts.

All 3 are in favour of Brexit.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Things could get ugly if there isn’t a deal in place for a soft border in Ireland, and I have no clue how close they are to a trade deal with the EU. Honestly, it’s been a fucking disaster based off of my observations, but it’s not like they can call another referendum without pissing people off. Not a good look for the Tories.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

barneystinson69 said:
Things could get ugly if there isn’t a deal in place for a soft border in Ireland, and I have no clue how close they are to a trade deal with the EU. Honestly, it’s been a fucking disaster based off of my observations, but it’s not like they can call another referendum without pissing people off. Not a good look for the Tories.

They're miles away from a trade deal. Even the withdrawal agreement is only a temporary holder whilst an actual trade deal is thrashed out over the next few years. Even after the UK actually leaves (no matter how that looks), they'll be dealing with brexit negotiations for years to come.

If any of them actually had a deal they felt they could get behind then a second, ratification referendum would be a no brainer. The Tories have been an absolute shit-show these last few years.



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Pyro as Bill said:
Bill Cash, Steve Baker and Douglas Carswell were our only MPs who opposed/questioned the bank bailouts.

All 3 are in favour of Brexit.

Not sure what your point is considering they're two unrelated topics and you could find a lot of topics where they've demonstrated their ignorance.

Also, pretty sure if you went back through the records you'd find a lot more MPs questioning the bailing out of banks. I find it hard to believe only 3/650 MPs were opposed.



barneystinson69 said:
Things could get ugly if there isn’t a deal in place for a soft border in Ireland, and I have no clue how close they are to a trade deal with the EU. Honestly, it’s been a fucking disaster based off of my observations, but it’s not like they can call another referendum without pissing people off. Not a good look for the Tories.

On the other hand it could be a dream for the DUP since there will most likely never be a border poll in the future for Northern Ireland thus granting their and every other unionists wishes over there ...  

It hasn't been all losses for Britain. They most likely get to keep Northern Ireland forever and no more dealing with freedom of movement or a lack of an independent trade policy ... 



barneystinson69 said:
Things could get ugly if there isn’t a deal in place for a soft border in Ireland, and I have no clue how close they are to a trade deal with the EU. Honestly, it’s been a fucking disaster based off of my observations, but it’s not like they can call another referendum without pissing people off. Not a good look for the Tories.

Miles away from a trade deal with the EU. Inf act, miles away from any trade deal with any country, Bexit negotiations, or more precisely the doctoring around the 585 page deal to get it through parliament, is taking up all the time right now.

fatslob-:O said:
barneystinson69 said:
Things could get ugly if there isn’t a deal in place for a soft border in Ireland, and I have no clue how close they are to a trade deal with the EU. Honestly, it’s been a fucking disaster based off of my observations, but it’s not like they can call another referendum without pissing people off. Not a good look for the Tories.

On the other hand it could be a dream for the DUP since there will most likely never be a border poll in the future for Northern Ireland thus granting their and every other unionists wishes over there ...  

It hasn't been all losses for Britain. They most likely get to keep Northern Ireland forever and no more dealing with freedom of movement or a lack of an independent trade policy ... 

That's patently wrong. In fact, quite the reverse. They are forced to call a poll when nationalist parties win an election (start at 2:00 in the video):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIJzc0FiVHA

Looks like it was pretty prophetic, half a year later. And as you can see in the Video, Nationalist parties are closing the gap fast. In fact, the 2017 election is the first one where Unionist parties total dropped below 50%

Even formerly staunch unionists are now thinking about leaving the UK and becoming part of Ireland::

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBtuwSixYoE

If Nationalist parties win the next election in Northern Ireland, then they have no choice but call a poll, as they are obliged to by the Good Friday Agreement. The next election is in less than 2 months (May 2nd, same as in England), and I don't think the DUP will be able to win that one considering the voters seem to move away from them.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

That's patently wrong. In fact, quite the reverse. They are forced to call a poll when nationalist parties win an election (start at 2:00 in the video):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIJzc0FiVHA

Looks like it was pretty prophetic, half a year later. And as you can see in the Video, Nationalist parties are closing the gap fast. In fact, the 2017 election is the first one where Unionist parties total dropped below 50%

Even formerly staunch unionists are now thinking about leaving the UK and becoming part of Ireland::

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBtuwSixYoE

If Nationalist parties win the next election in Northern Ireland, then they have no choice but call a poll, as they are obliged to by the Good Friday Agreement. The next election is in less than 2 months (May 2nd, same as in England), and I don't think the DUP will be able to win that one considering the voters seem to move away from them.

The material you posted is irrelevant at hand ... 

Ireland will most likely cave into the EU's demands and will pull out of the agreement as accordingly before any poll is even called. Also it's unlikely that the nationalists will come out on top as the unionists won the total share of votes by a 7% point margin during the last general election so what do you think 2 years will buy you ? 

Also, if you truly thought that the DUP voters were on the fence before they most likely wouldn't contemplate voting for Sinn Fein or even the SDLP. It's far more likely that they'd go back to the UUP or possibly vote non-sectarian parties like Alliance but the reason why DUP exists is because is because the voters thought that the UUP didn't have a strong enough resolution so when they voted for the DUP they were not looking to settle Brexit and are intending to settle Northern Ireland's status of sovereignty immediately. You'll be be disappointed to find out that there aren't many moderates within the DUP ... 

If the DUP and the other unionists can hold out for for a couple of more years then they'll have inevitably won since then even after if they become the minority later on. Either the EU gives into the demands of the UK or they can kiss goodbye to the idea of a united Ireland. The UK is not stipulated in the GFA to align with either the EU or Ireland in terms of customs policy so they do not intend to make conditions simple for reunification. The ball is either in the EU or in Ireland's court to see a united Ireland ... 



fatslob-:O said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

That's patently wrong. In fact, quite the reverse. They are forced to call a poll when nationalist parties win an election (start at 2:00 in the video):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIJzc0FiVHA

Looks like it was pretty prophetic, half a year later. And as you can see in the Video, Nationalist parties are closing the gap fast. In fact, the 2017 election is the first one where Unionist parties total dropped below 50%

Even formerly staunch unionists are now thinking about leaving the UK and becoming part of Ireland::

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBtuwSixYoE

If Nationalist parties win the next election in Northern Ireland, then they have no choice but call a poll, as they are obliged to by the Good Friday Agreement. The next election is in less than 2 months (May 2nd, same as in England), and I don't think the DUP will be able to win that one considering the voters seem to move away from them.

The material you posted is irrelevant at hand ... 

Ireland will most likely cave into the EU's demands and will pull out of the agreement as accordingly before any poll is even called. Also it's unlikely that the nationalists will come out on top as the unionists won the total share of votes by a 7% point margin during the last general election so what do you think 2 years will buy you

Also, if you truly thought that the DUP voters were on the fence before they most likely wouldn't contemplate voting for Sinn Fein or even the SDLP. It's far more likely that they'd go back to the UUP or possibly vote non-sectarian parties like Alliance but the reason why DUP exists is because is because the voters thought that the UUP didn't have a strong enough resolution so when they voted for the DUP they were not looking to settle Brexit and are intending to settle Northern Ireland's status of sovereignty immediately. You'll be be disappointed to find out that there aren't many moderates within the DUP ... 

If the DUP and the other unionists can hold out for for a couple of more years then they'll have inevitably won since then even after if they become the minority later on. Either the EU gives into the demands of the UK or they can kiss goodbye to the idea of a united Ireland. The UK is not stipulated in the GFA to align with either the EU or Ireland in terms of customs policy so they do not intend to make conditions simple for reunification. The ball is either in the EU or in Ireland's court to see a united Ireland ... 

@bolded: That's the Brexiteers tactic, not understanding that the EU doesn't just stand for an economic union, but also for common values and standards. Hence why they can't fathom why the EU is willing to take an economic hit instead of relenting on their demands. But Ireland won't pull out. Besides that wouldn't remove the border with the UK anytime soon. And going by Brexit, at the time the UK Parliament finally would have agreed on opening the border to ireland, both Northern Ireland and Scotland would have long left the Union. Seriously they can't seem to stop bickering even if their Life was on the line.

@Italic: Plenty, and just because of Brexit. A recent poll showed that the Nationalists would win over 60% of the popular vote now as also the NI economy is heavily dependent on the open border to Ireland. A hard brexit is a death sentence for almost half the economy there. Also, over 50% want a poll if there's no deal. Just quoting some passages so you'll see why Brexit is so much of a dealbreaker for Northern ireland:

"Over half (52%) said they would vote for a united Ireland after Brexit, with 39% wishing to stay part of the UK.

In the event of Brexit with a hard border, 56% favoured a united Ireland, with 40% choosing to stay in the UK.

Should the UK somehow remain in the EU, the poll found that more than half (52%) would want to stay in the UK, with just 35% supporting a united Ireland."

So as you can see, Brexit is the reason why Northern Ireland is swinging into leaving the Union. And that goes for all, Nationalists, Unionists and those who remain neutral between the 2. To quote again:

"Only around three quarters (73%) of those from a nationalist background said they would support a united Ireland if Brexit was avoided - compared to 94% wanting to leave the UK after Brexit.

Some 59% of those who didn't consider themselves unionist or nationalist supported a united Ireland after Brexit, but this dropped to 23% if Brexit was avoided."

Oh, and the Irish are in already, over 73% want a reunited Republic of Ireland.

About the rest: You are aware that the support for the Unionists is shrinking for decades, right? In the 70's Unionist parties claimed over 70% of the vote, but they were sliding under 50% in the last election. And Brexit certainly erodes even more of their voter base, as shown above. Like they said in the videos in the previous post, nationalist Catholics are outgrowing the unionist Protestants and surpassing them in more and more parts of NI.

Of course, that's all with a hard Brexit incoming. With a last minute Brexit deal with the EU I'm fairly sure the DUP could continue their reign, if barely, and thus avoid a NIxit and later Scoxit.