Switch should be able to beat 3DS+Wii U in the Western markets and other global territories. In the native land, I think it will at least beat the 3DS through legs. To beat the 3DS+Wii U, it would have to sell at least 28 million. That's going to be a tall order, but it is possible.

I'm disappointed in you. 

You think it will do ~27 million in Japan?

It would be cool if you put next quarters results for 3DS/Wii U so we know what kind of numbers Switch will need to pull off.

Yes. 

Looks like the Switch will take the lead with this holiday season

Japan is a tough one, but it should progressively get easier as the 3DS was pretty frontloaded. Next year already Switch could maybe snatch some quartal or two.

Switch also doesn't have the price cut like 3DS in Japan.

I still remembered Nintendo was in the red when 3DS received a huge price cut in order to revive the momentum of the hardware in Japan, while Switch is comfortably in the green for Nintendo despite trailing behind 3DS in Japan.

Hence why the 3DS was so frontloaded and why the Switch has a chance to reach total 3DS numbers in Japan: It dropped off pretty fast after it's second year. And I doubt Switch peaked already, unlike how the 3DS did

Nintendo consoles seem frontloaded in Japan, the Wii peaked there in 2007, and I'm almost sure it was the same for the N64 and the GC in their first full years.

Indeed, the N64 peaked just about everywhere in its first full year.

N64 got it's legs cut by Clouds Buster Sword, until that point the N64 was even in front of the PS1 in monthly sales.

I'm pretty sure though that the Switch will buck that trend