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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

DonFerrari on 21 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
Acevil said:

Are you aware of the record for this generation? I know Wii/DS hold the top for December at 3 something billion. 

3DS 2011

PS4 2015

PS4 2016

XBO 2016

NSW 2017

These were all over 1.5 million but under 1.6 million

Switch have a good shot on passing 1.6M.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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zorg1000 on 21 December 2018
DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

3DS 2011

PS4 2015

PS4 2016

XBO 2016

NSW 2017

These were all over 1.5 million but under 1.6 million

Switch have a good shot on passing 1.6M.

I would be very shocked if it didnt, to go from being up 75% YoY in November to up less than 7% YoY in December would be pretty crazy.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

LipeJJ on 22 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

Switch have a good shot on passing 1.6M.

I would be very shocked if it didnt, to go from being up 75% YoY in November to up less than 7% YoY in December would be pretty crazy.

Yep, I'm thinking 1.8m is the floor for Switch. Hopefully it goes far beyond 2m.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

DonFerrari on 22 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

Switch have a good shot on passing 1.6M.

I would be very shocked if it didnt, to go from being up 75% YoY in November to up less than 7% YoY in December would be pretty crazy.

Same could have been said predicting a bad november... shocked from it being down YOY so far to being up over 10%, absurd =]

But I would say the increase will be nearer 7% than 70%



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

manuelogando40 on 22 December 2018
CGI-Quality said:
manuelogando40 said:

Exactle. Prove I´m wrong. 

"Npd doesn't give figures since moths ago. Figures you read here are from Era. And they are not accurate." 

That burden lies with you, I'm afraid. If they are inaccurate, explain how/why.

Methodology from Era thread: "in the predictions thread, we get leaked number percentages a few days before PR that we then extrapolate from last year's data to give us a general unit estimate".

Everybody takes figures from that thread. it´s ok. It doesn´t matter. Figures are into acceptable percentage. 

Then you can compare it with: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html

For example: 

First 6 months of 2018 Era thread:

NSW: 270K + 279K + 310K + 170K + 165K + 323K     Total: 1517k

Nintendo Report (official figures) for that period: 1870k 



"Every day I look in the mirror and ask myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?". If the answer is no for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something"

Steve Jobs

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KingofTrolls on 22 December 2018
manuelogando40 said:

Could be. Npd doesn't give figures since moths ago. 

Figures you read here are from Era. And they are not accurate. 

I see we will not get accurate numbers then. So we have to stay with these ones. Half assed still better than nothing.



zorg1000 on 22 December 2018
DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

I would be very shocked if it didnt, to go from being up 75% YoY in November to up less than 7% YoY in December would be pretty crazy.

Same could have been said predicting a bad november... shocked from it being down YOY so far to being up over 10%, absurd =]

But I would say the increase will be nearer 7% than 70%

Ya I'm not expecting a 70% YoY increase this month but Smash is definitely moving more than an extra 100k.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

animegaming on 22 December 2018

Benji just posted this

"Switch is God damn crazy

Xbox is pretty solid

PS4 is.....there"

https://www.resetera.com/threads/november-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-december-11th.84906/page-33#post-16210728

 

EDIT

He just posted this 

"To be clear the PS4 is selling a lot It's just, yeah having no deals available is certainly slowing its momentum this week compared to the other 2"

https://www.resetera.com/threads/november-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-december-11th.84906/page-33#post-16211262

 

December is gonna be another fantastic for the industry it seems. 



LipeJJ on 22 December 2018
animegaming said:

Benji just posted this

"Switch is God damn crazy

Xbox is pretty solid

PS4 is.....there"

https://www.resetera.com/threads/november-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-december-11th.84906/page-33#post-16210728

 

EDIT

He just posted this 

"To be clear the PS4 is selling a lot It's just, yeah having no deals available is certainly slowing its momentum this week compared to the other 2"

https://www.resetera.com/threads/november-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-december-11th.84906/page-33#post-16211262

 

December is gonna be another fantastic for the industry it seems. 

I've just seen it and wow, that bodes very well for Switch. I can't believe there's an actual chance of it reaching 2m+ sales.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Ryng on 22 December 2018

thread update