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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

Find one post that called him a hater or troll.

Nobody can control what posts other people decide to reply to, just because a few people all had the same argument against what he said does not mean we are "banding together" against him.

Ok, if you want to be sure you nor others have attacked him or similar let's go.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8937860 - you even got a warning for flaming on this one.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8939339 - this guy have done similar remarks on 3 different threads pretending he wasn't doing attacks.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8939386 - do you need the specific word to be said to see what is the message?

It isn't to surprise that CGI had to give 3 or more warnings or mods in the thread.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8940262 - will you say this wasn't brought to ridicularize the poster?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8940568 - also people saying they didn't only gone against very negative post but positive as well. I didn't see any harsh replies to this one.

1. My warning has nothing to do with this discussion, it was from a separate argument well before this debate started.

2. I'll give you that one

3. No, he said the 80m prediction is fine just questions how people come up with things like 65m or under 3DS.

4. No it wasnt. Intrinsic said his original prediction was 50m. This user showed that he originally said 35-40m. It wasnt to ridicule, it was to point out a false statement.

5. Because he gave a massive range of 75-155m, it will certainly fall somewhere between that massive gap.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:

1. My warning has nothing to do with this discussion, it was from a separate argument well before this debate started.

2. I'll give you that one

3. No, he said the 80m prediction is fine just questions how people come up with things like 65m or under 3DS.

4. No it wasnt. Intrinsic said his original prediction was 50m. This user showed that he originally said 35-40m. It wasnt to ridicule, it was to point out a false statement.

5. Because he gave a massive range of 75-155m, it will certainly fall somewhere between that massive gap.

First off that was from about 2 years ago. I simply couldn't remember exactly what I said. I did know however and said in this thread already that I had already previously revised my original prediction. And whats funny is that my revision was from the very same thread that he dredged up my previous post. 

I am guessing it wouldnt have had a similar effect to ridicule me if he had also quoted the post I made from that same thread where I took it up to around 60M.

Basically in the first and biggest NS pre release prediction thread. I made a prediction of 35M -40M which I then changed to 55M - 60M. And yet only get quoted on my 35M - 40M initial prediction two years later to use as a means to question my credibility. You even said I shouldn't be taken seriously.

I bet you couldn't remember that you were the very person that got into a big debate back then about my numbers changing. 

Last edited by Intrinsic - on 18 December 2018

wombat123 said:
 let's put it this way: this thread is how I'll remember you from now on.  It's not a bad or good thing, it's just that this thread and '80m' will pop up in my head whenever I see you reply to something.  It's like how I remember tbone because of his Splatoon sales prediction and subsequent bold predictions or quickrick because of his negative Nintendo hot takes and how he would always dial them back whenever he felt like he was going to be wrong.

You are free to remember me however you want to remember me.

I see nothing wrong with making a prediction, admitting you are wrong and making a new one. Which is what I did.

If or when the NS blows past 80M...... I will be right here saying I was wrong. 



Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

1. My warning has nothing to do with this discussion, it was from a separate argument well before this debate started.

2. I'll give you that one

3. No, he said the 80m prediction is fine just questions how people come up with things like 65m or under 3DS.

4. No it wasnt. Intrinsic said his original prediction was 50m. This user showed that he originally said 35-40m. It wasnt to ridicule, it was to point out a false statement.

5. Because he gave a massive range of 75-155m, it will certainly fall somewhere between that massive gap.

First off that was from about 2 years ago. I simply couldn't remember exactly what I said. I did know however and said in this thread already that I had already previously revised my original prediction. And whats funny is that my revision was from the very same thread that he dredged up my previous post. 

I am guessing it wouldnt have had a similar effect to ridicule me if he had also quoted the post I made from that same thread where I took it up to around 60M.

Basically in the first and biggest NS pre release prediction thread. I made a prediction of 35M -40M which I then changed to 55M - 60M. And yet only get quoted on my 35M - 40M initial prediction two years later to use as a means to question my credibility. You even said I shouldn't be taken seriously.

I bet you couldn't remember that you were the very person that got into a big debate back then about my numbers changing. 

And that's fine that you forgot but the poster didnt ridicule you with that quote, all he did was show you that your statement wasnt correct.

Well honestly your Switch predictions shouldn't be taken seriously as you have upped them 3 times now. From 35-40 to 55-60 to 70-80 and now to 85+. 

I do remember the argument in that thread and like I said in my last post, it was never an argument about your numbers changing, it was about a contradicting statement you made.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

Ok, if you want to be sure you nor others have attacked him or similar let's go.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8937860 - you even got a warning for flaming on this one.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8939339 - this guy have done similar remarks on 3 different threads pretending he wasn't doing attacks.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8939386 - do you need the specific word to be said to see what is the message?

It isn't to surprise that CGI had to give 3 or more warnings or mods in the thread.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8940262 - will you say this wasn't brought to ridicularize the poster?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8940568 - also people saying they didn't only gone against very negative post but positive as well. I didn't see any harsh replies to this one.

1. My warning has nothing to do with this discussion, it was from a separate argument well before this debate started.

2. I'll give you that one

3. No, he said the 80m prediction is fine just questions how people come up with things like 65m or under 3DS.

4. No it wasnt. Intrinsic said his original prediction was 50m. This user showed that he originally said 35-40m. It wasnt to ridicule, it was to point out a false statement.

5. Because he gave a massive range of 75-155m, it will certainly fall somewhere between that massive gap.

1 - ok, but then we can go past the position of you wouldn't do flammatory posts right?

3 - Yes sure.. read more of his posts and it's pretty clear that he is meaning that predicting 80M is fine, but 65 a person needs to have an agenda (funny enough on a thread of PS4 achieving like 80-85M don't remember the specific number, but was this year, there were people predicting PS4 wouldn't cross 100M and no one was there attacking him or saying he had an agenda).

4 - "a blast from the past" and on a reply to me regarding it asking me to have humor and that he wasn't lambasting, just making joke... yes sure, no attack.

5 - Nope he didn't. 75 If Nintendo screw up. That isn't his real prediction. You can be sure that it is over 100M when only screwing up get it to 75 and optimistic going 155 (record) instead of everyone else getting out of gaming or any absurd occurence. So I'm pretty safe in saying he is more on the 120M+

CGI-Quality said:

I'll take off the mod coat for just a sec.

Let's look at it this way ~ Switch has breathed new life into this game. Decemeber's numbers are going to be MASSIVE for it. Period. Dot.

Realistically, 80 million is the bare minimum of final lifetime totals. Treat it like a handheld regarding sales (its docking feature is the icing). I predict that it will sell between 95 and 115 million, give or take. A bit behind the PS4, but definitely ahead of the 3DS. I want all of its doubters of 80+ million final unit totals to consider that this isn't the Wii. It shouldn't have that kind of hard drop off because the carrying weight of the Wii's particular audience are not the people jumping through hoops for Smash. These are core, dedicated fans of the series and many of them WILL buy a Switch for just this one game. The PS5/Xbox Next will have an impact, no doubt, but there's nothing currently suggesting that this thing will just taper off and crawl to 80 million and the Switch has much more pulling power than the Wii, in my eyes.

2019 will be a better indicator of long term success. Just think about all of the variables to reach your final conclusions.

Right now, unless unexpected happens (like early replacement or market avoiding it when PS5/X2 comes) yes 80M seems like a minimum. But still saying that it will be hard to get to 80M only on Nintendo SW is pretty resonable, not even Nintendo HH got over 80M without good 3rd party support (and 3DS even with it will barely do it).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

1. My warning has nothing to do with this discussion, it was from a separate argument well before this debate started.

2. I'll give you that one

3. No, he said the 80m prediction is fine just questions how people come up with things like 65m or under 3DS.

4. No it wasnt. Intrinsic said his original prediction was 50m. This user showed that he originally said 35-40m. It wasnt to ridicule, it was to point out a false statement.

5. Because he gave a massive range of 75-155m, it will certainly fall somewhere between that massive gap.

1 - ok, but then we can go past the position of you wouldn't do flammatory posts right?

3 - Yes sure.. read more of his posts and it's pretty clear that he is meaning that predicting 80M is fine, but 65 a person needs to have an agenda (funny enough on a thread of PS4 achieving like 80-85M don't remember the specific number, but was this year, there were people predicting PS4 wouldn't cross 100M and no one was there attacking him or saying he had an agenda).

4 - "a blast from the past" and on a reply to me regarding it asking me to have humor and that he wasn't lambasting, just making joke... yes sure, no attack.

5 - Nope he didn't. 75 If Nintendo screw up. That isn't his real prediction. You can be sure that it is over 100M when only screwing up get it to 75 and optimistic going 155 (record) instead of everyone else getting out of gaming or any absurd occurence. So I'm pretty safe in saying he is more on the 120M+

CGI-Quality said:

I'll take off the mod coat for just a sec.

Let's look at it this way ~ Switch has breathed new life into this game. Decemeber's numbers are going to be MASSIVE for it. Period. Dot.

Realistically, 80 million is the bare minimum of final lifetime totals. Treat it like a handheld regarding sales (its docking feature is the icing). I predict that it will sell between 95 and 115 million, give or take. A bit behind the PS4, but definitely ahead of the 3DS. I want all of its doubters of 80+ million final unit totals to consider that this isn't the Wii. It shouldn't have that kind of hard drop off because the carrying weight of the Wii's particular audience are not the people jumping through hoops for Smash. These are core, dedicated fans of the series and many of them WILL buy a Switch for just this one game. The PS5/Xbox Next will have an impact, no doubt, but there's nothing currently suggesting that this thing will just taper off and crawl to 80 million and the Switch has much more pulling power than the Wii, in my eyes.

2019 will be a better indicator of long term success. Just think about all of the variables to reach your final conclusions.

Right now, unless unexpected happens (like early replacement or market avoiding it when PS5/X2 comes) yes 80M seems like a minimum. But still saying that it will be hard to get to 80M only on Nintendo SW is pretty resonable, not even Nintendo HH got over 80M without good 3rd party support (and 3DS even with it will barely do it).

1. I never anything of that sort, I said I wasn't attacking intrisic

3. Read more of his posts? You want me to look through his post history to see his predictions of other consoles in other threads? I'm not doing that, all I'm talking about is things happening in this specific discussion. And yes anyone who said PS4 wouldnt sell 100 million is crazy.

4. A blast from the past meaning it was a post from 2 years ago, you are reading way too much into that one.

5. Well yes Nintendo would have to start making big mistakes to only sell 75m, if they reach their fiscal year target they will be halfway there in just over 2 years. It would require a historical drop. And I have gotten in plenty of arguments with users for overly optimistic Nintendo predictions, most notably, JohnLucas & Kaizer who thought Wii U and 3DS would sell like 200 million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

1 - ok, but then we can go past the position of you wouldn't do flammatory posts right?

3 - Yes sure.. read more of his posts and it's pretty clear that he is meaning that predicting 80M is fine, but 65 a person needs to have an agenda (funny enough on a thread of PS4 achieving like 80-85M don't remember the specific number, but was this year, there were people predicting PS4 wouldn't cross 100M and no one was there attacking him or saying he had an agenda).

4 - "a blast from the past" and on a reply to me regarding it asking me to have humor and that he wasn't lambasting, just making joke... yes sure, no attack.

5 - Nope he didn't. 75 If Nintendo screw up. That isn't his real prediction. You can be sure that it is over 100M when only screwing up get it to 75 and optimistic going 155 (record) instead of everyone else getting out of gaming or any absurd occurence. So I'm pretty safe in saying he is more on the 120M+

Right now, unless unexpected happens (like early replacement or market avoiding it when PS5/X2 comes) yes 80M seems like a minimum. But still saying that it will be hard to get to 80M only on Nintendo SW is pretty resonable, not even Nintendo HH got over 80M without good 3rd party support (and 3DS even with it will barely do it).

1. I never anything of that sort, I said I wasn't attacking intrisic

3. Read more of his posts? You want me to look through his post history to see his predictions of other consoles in other threads? I'm not doing that, all I'm talking about is things happening in this specific discussion. And yes anyone who said PS4 wouldnt sell 100 million is crazy.

4. A blast from the past meaning it was a post from 2 years ago, you are reading way too much into that one.

5. Well yes Nintendo would have to start making big mistakes to only sell 75m, if they reach their fiscal year target they will be halfway there in just over 2 years. It would require a historical drop. And I have gotten in plenty of arguments with users for overly optimistic Nintendo predictions, most notably, JohnLucas & Kaizer who thought Wii U and 3DS would sell like 200 million.

1 - Ok

3 - No to see his behavior on defending Nintendo or attacking others who post something against it, and since he doesn't use the moderable terms he can stay float. Yes it is about imposible to see PS4 doing less than 100M, still no one attacked the person doing it.

4 - The person had already said he undershot and the reasons and where he done. So going there to dig the post and then ask for others to have humor is pretty clear he wanted to mock

5 - JohnLucas got someone replacing him to make a thread on Switch crossing 250M (but no one beats one MS executive that talked about 1B consoles this gen).

CGI-Quality said:
DonFerrari said: 

Right now, unless unexpected happens (like early replacement or market avoiding it when PS5/X2 comes) yes 80M seems like a minimum. But still saying that it will be hard to get to 80M only on Nintendo SW is pretty resonable, not even Nintendo HH got over 80M without good 3rd party support (and 3DS even with it will barely do it).

The 3DS is a different beast, though. Unlike the Switch, it had to fight its way out of a rut the first year. On top of that, it doesn't have the multifunctionality of the Switch and its sales curve, when aligned, is quite a ways behind it. 

Always let the data guide you through predictions. 

I agree it is a different beast and 80-110 is a very reasonable prediction bracket unless bonkers situation happens.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

CGI-Quality said:
DonFerrari said: 

Right now, unless unexpected happens (like early replacement or market avoiding it when PS5/X2 comes) yes 80M seems like a minimum. But still saying that it will be hard to get to 80M only on Nintendo SW is pretty resonable, not even Nintendo HH got over 80M without good 3rd party support (and 3DS even with it will barely do it).

The 3DS is a different beast, though. Unlike the Switch, it had to fight its way out of a rut the first year. On top of that, it doesn't have the multifunctionality of the Switch and its sales curve, when aligned, is quite a ways behind it. 

Always let the data guide you through predictions. 

It's also worth taking a look at sales from a region to region basis.

3DS did amazing in Japan and good in the West while it's sort of the opposite for Switch.

The trajectory of Switch sales in the West will significantly cancel out any potential decline happening in Japan.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

1. I never anything of that sort, I said I wasn't attacking intrisic

3. Read more of his posts? You want me to look through his post history to see his predictions of other consoles in other threads? I'm not doing that, all I'm talking about is things happening in this specific discussion. And yes anyone who said PS4 wouldnt sell 100 million is crazy.

4. A blast from the past meaning it was a post from 2 years ago, you are reading way too much into that one.

5. Well yes Nintendo would have to start making big mistakes to only sell 75m, if they reach their fiscal year target they will be halfway there in just over 2 years. It would require a historical drop. And I have gotten in plenty of arguments with users for overly optimistic Nintendo predictions, most notably, JohnLucas & Kaizer who thought Wii U and 3DS would sell like 200 million.

1 - Ok

3 - No to see his behavior on defending Nintendo or attacking others who post something against it, and since he doesn't use the moderable terms he can stay float. Yes it is about imposible to see PS4 doing less than 100M, still no one attacked the person doing it.

4 - The person had already said he undershot and the reasons and where he done. So going there to dig the post and then ask for others to have humor is pretty clear he wanted to mock

5 - JohnLucas got someone replacing him to make a thread on Switch crossing 250M (but no one beats one MS executive that talked about 1B consoles this gen).

CGI-Quality said:

The 3DS is a different beast, though. Unlike the Switch, it had to fight its way out of a rut the first year. On top of that, it doesn't have the multifunctionality of the Switch and its sales curve, when aligned, is quite a ways behind it. 

Always let the data guide you through predictions. 

I agree it is a different beast and 80-110 is a very reasonable prediction bracket unless bonkers situation happens.

3. Well I cant really call people out on things I dont see.

4. I'll say it again, intrisic claimed 50m was his original prediction, the other user pointed out that it was actually 35-40m. That is not mocking someone, that is called correcting an error.  There is nothing wrong with intrisic forgetting, we all forget things, but at the same time there is nothing wrong with refreshing someone's memory.

5. Ya I saw that prediction and it's so dumb that it's not even worth arguing over.

One other reason why I question intrinsic and not some other posters is because intrinsic is an overall good poster that I enjoy debating with so I will try picking his brain when he says things I dont agree with. I enjoy a good debate and he is a good opponent (same goes for you).



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

And that's fine that you forgot but the poster didnt ridicule you with that quote, all he did was show you that your statement wasnt correct.

Well honestly your Switch predictions shouldn't be taken seriously as you have upped them 3 times now. From 35-40 to 55-60 to 70-80 and now to 85+. 

I do remember the argument in that thread and like I said in my last post, it was never an argument about your numbers changing, it was about a contradicting statement you made.

Ok. This whole thing has played itself out.

I have changed my prediction twice not thrice. I never made an 85M+ prediction. But I will not continue indulging this either. Its ok. You guys win.

Feel free to disregard any prediction I have made about the switch. I'll take it a step further and not say anything switch related ever again on this site. For my own peace of mind cause apparently a low prediction for the switch results in all manner of drama.