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November NPD 2018 Thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

DonFerrari said:

I would incentive you to go on WiiU predictions thread and pick every single poster that predicted over 15M and list then for these 2 fine folks to evaluate.

Lol.... haven`t got that kinda energy. Don't have anything to prove t them anyways.



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DonFerrari said:

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

100 million? No. 250 million? Get a sense of humor, Don. 



Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Cool, you upped your prediction when it was painfully clear you were wrong, is that supposed to made your new estimate more credible?

What does your 2nd paragraph have to do with anything?

Dude...... its a prediction. We aren't getting paid for this. I made a prediction based on how thins were before the console even released. It ended up being more successful than I foresaw. I changed my prediction. Doubled my original tally, admitted that it has been more successful.

This prediction isn't any more or less credible than the last one. Why? because its just a prediction, based on nothing but my opinion which is based on my own interpretation of the facts.

And what that second paragraph has to do with anything is that at the time no one really could know how well the NS was going to do. Hell if you really want t dig into my post history there are multiple times that I kept insisting that we have t wait a year at least before any real predictions can be made. 

I at least admitted i was wrong, as opposed to run away from the site or act like I never made such a prediction. Even in this thread I had referenced my previous much lower prediction. Considering how long ago it as though I just forgot I said 35M - 40M as opposed to 40M-50M. But I am sure if i did through my post history i said something like that too.

I get that but you were the one who said, "Doesn't that just go to show I adjust predictions as the market changes" as if I should commend you for changing a bad prediction once it's clear it wont happen.

 

And dont even start with the whole "nobody could tell it would be a success" argument because that's not true. As far back as 2014, myself and others talked about how a potential unified platform that consolidated their handheld and home console markets would be a big success with a minimum of 3DS level sales.


Last edited by zorg1000 - on 18 December 2018

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic said:

But indulge me..... on nintendos IR site they have sales numbers for the NS at 22M as at end of september. Are you saying those are also tracking shipped numbers? Cause I believe they are not. And if that is the case then no, shipped numbers is not the only official numbers we have.

Just to alleviate some confusion (not adding any data here).  Nintendo and Sony (and MS if they ever do again) will provide shipped units on their IR reports.  It may say "sold" but that is because that unit is "sold" to them.  Each shipment is a purchase either by a distributor, retailer, wholesaler, etc....  IR reports are financial documents reports to the US Securities and Exchange Committee.  By law they must report financial information using certain industry standard practices and terminology which means reporting focused on the first sale of product...which is typically a distributor or retailer rather than directly to a consumer.

Sold to consumers is often expressed as "sold through".



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DonFerrari said:
p0isonparadise said:

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 

 

zorg1000 said:

So he went from 35-40m to 70-80m, a 100% increase.........ya I dont think anyone should take Intrinsic seriously when it comes to predicting Switch sales.

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

I just told someone who had a 110m prediction their numbers are looking too high.

And I'm not lambasting/mocking him for predicting 3DS level sales, I'm debating with him. He agreed with me that Switch will extend its lead over 3DS by a few million each year for the first 4 years and I've been trying to explain to him that it would have to have one of, if not the worst decline in console history to fall behind after that point.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
StarDoor said:

> Breath of the Wild becomes best-selling Zelda
> Odyssey becomes the best-selling 3D Mario
> Smash Ultimate becomes the best-selling Smash
> "Clearly, it's the third-party ports that are driving Switch's success."

It baffles me that people still think AAA ports are what determines the success/failure of Nintendo platforms.

 

and not determine success as well, as in Xbox One, Sega Saturn and Psvita. All consoles packed with third party games.



Intrinsic said:
DonFerrari said:

I would incentive you to go on WiiU predictions thread and pick every single poster that predicted over 15M and list then for these 2 fine folks to evaluate.

Lol.... haven`t got that kinda energy. Don't have anything to prove t them anyways.

7 years of good support? All portable and stationary nintendo ips? I believe, if nintendo screw up the console, 75 millions. The best case scenariois 135-155 millions.



Intrinsic said:
DonFerrari said:

 

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

Naaa man thats not how this works. They wouldn't be saying anything if i predicted 140M for the switch. And all thse that predicted the switch would outsell the PS4 this year have also somehow gone silent. And the funny thing is that as early as feb this year I had already changed my initial "pre release" prediction.

I'm certainly on it.

Intrinsic said:
DonFerrari said:

I would incentive you to go on WiiU predictions thread and pick every single poster that predicted over 15M and list then for these 2 fine folks to evaluate.

Lol.... haven`t got that kinda energy. Don't have anything to prove t them anyways.

You have to prove "you can be taken seriously".

p0isonparadise said:
DonFerrari said:

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

100 million? No. 250 million? Get a sense of humor, Don. 

What humor is in offending other members of the site?

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

I just told someone who had a 110m prediction their numbers are looking too high.

And I'm not lambasting/mocking him for predicting 3DS level sales, I'm debating with him. He agreed with me that Switch will extend its lead over 3DS by a few million each year for the first 4 years and I've been trying to explain to him that it would have to have one of, if not the worst decline in console history to fall behind after that point.

And did you made with the same kind of remarks and adjectives you took with Intrisic? Have gone to look other posts to make fun? Called them any names for making a prediction that doesn't seem likely? Or just said it "looked too high"?

Because I have seem more than just debating here.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

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Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Alright here's what I think. There is no way Switch is going to reach anything greater than 60 million on the basis that within a couple of years we will have far more powerful consoles on the market at competitive prices and fans will quickly learn that the Switch won't be the go to for everyday gaming. It will howwever be relegated to a hand held device but that will have its limitations as mobile gaming on smart phones will have achieved incredible advances by that stage. The decline will be sudden and unexpected.. Mark my word... The perceived power deficiency will become a factor sooner than later.



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3sexty said:
Alright here's what I think. There is no way Switch is going to reach anything greater than 60 million on the basis that within a couple of years we will have far more powerful consoles on the market at competitive prices and fans will quickly learn that the Switch won't be the go to for everyday gaming. It will howwever be relegated to a hand held device but that will have its limitations as mobile gaming on smart phones will have achieved incredible advances by that stage. The decline will be sudden and unexpected.. Mark my word... The perceived power deficiency will become a factor sooner than later.

It was out powered the day it launched.  Do you not realize it is the software driving its sales?


I don't care how powerful a smartphone is, it's the games. 



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."