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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

zorg1000 on 17 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

How did you not know I was talking shipped? All of the 3DS numbers I gave and those first 2 Switch numbers are confirmed shipments from Nintendo.

How does any of that show you've been right all along?

I have been talking sold to consumers not shipped. And the 75M I have been saying is based on VGC 72M+ number for the 3DS sales. Not shipped. 

And the right all along part.... if the numbers you have been putting up are shipped numbers and I am talking sales then it means that even if 18M are shipped not all of those units will be sold. And as the quarters progress shipments will be adjusted up or down to accommodate buying trends. So by the time the next switch comes along, they very well may have shipped 75M to 80M but it doesn't mean all those would have been sold.

Ok well you havent been paying attention then because I have repeatedly said fiscal year, in almost every post, that should have been a clear indication that I'm talking about fiscal year shipments rather than calendar year sales (something we dont even get official numbers for).

I still dont understand how that makes you right, you do realize sell through eventually has to meet shipped numbers?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Intrinsic on 17 December 2018
zorg1000 said:

Ok well you havent been paying attention then because I have repeatedly said fiscal year, in almost every post, that should have been a clear indication that I'm talking about fiscal year shipments rather than calendar year sales (something we dont even get official numbers for).

I still dont understand how that makes you right, you do realize sell through eventually has to meet shipped numbers?

Yes I understand that. But all the while I have been talking about sales as tracked here n VGC. And while you say we don't et official sales numbers... I dare say that VGC makes fairly decent approximations of that, thanks to japan sales tracking, NPD and their general extrapolations.  

Anyways now all is clear. All we have to do now is wait for about 3 or 4 years. 



p0isonparadise on 17 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

The thing I don't understand is that you agree with those estimates I gave yet still think it will fall behind 3DS at some point, just exactly when will that be?

Those estimates I gave put it at 62-73 million, let's split it down the middle and say 67.5 million for convenience sake, that's a 15 million lead.

That's roughly 10 million away from where 3DS will end up at so you think it will go from 12+ million in the 4th full fiscal year to under 10 million in years 5 and beyond? A time period in which 3DS will sell ~25 million.

I'm sorry but the math just doesnt add up to me.

My own personal estimate fr the NS was originally 50M. 

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 



zorg1000 on 17 December 2018
p0isonparadise said:
Intrinsic said:

My own personal estimate fr the NS was originally 50M. 

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 

So he went from 35-40m to 70-80m, a 100% increase.........ya I dont think anyone should take Intrinsic seriously when it comes to predicting Switch sales.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic on 17 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
p0isonparadise said:

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 

So he went from 35-40m to 70-80m, a 100% increase.........ya I dont think anyone should take Intrinsic seriously when it comes to predicting Switch sales.

Doesn't that just go to show I adjust predictions as the market changes. And I literally did double my initial prediction after its first year on the market. And I had admitted to doing so in this same thread. I could have sworn my original prediction was 50M though.

In all fairness just last november nearly everyone were predicting some sort of neck and neck race between the NS and PS4 and some even had the NS winning. Only one person on this site got it right.

Last edited by Intrinsic - on 17 December 2018

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wombat123 on 17 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
p0isonparadise said:

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 

So he went from 35-40m to 70-80m, a 100% increase.........ya I dont think anyone should take Intrinsic seriously when it comes to predicting Switch sales.

My opinion is that it's only acceptable to up your predictions if it isn't obvious that you're going to be wrong.



LGBTDBZBBQ on 18 December 2018
p0isonparadise said:
Intrinsic said:

My own personal estimate fr the NS was originally 50M. 

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 

ROFL



Miyamotoo on 18 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Miyamotoo said:

Ship numbers are only official numbers we have, and at end of March 2019. Switch will have around 36-37m shipped units, and around half of number that you mentioned (75-80m).

Keep in mind that all Nintendo numbers are ship (sold to retailers), so predictions for years should be for ship units, espacily when we talking about LT predictions because at end for any console ship units is equal sales units at end.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

Sigh...

Don't know how else to say this.

I have NEVER been in a debate about how many consoles nintendo will ship.

I am using VGC sold numbers for nintendo. Whose numbers for nintendo and every other platform is the closest approximation of global sales we have that constantly gets adjusted whenever more sold to consumers numbers are given. 

But indulge me..... on nintendos IR site they have sales numbers for the NS at 22M as at end of september. Are you saying those are also tracking shipped numbers? Cause I believe they are not. And if that is the case then no, shipped numbers is not the only official numbers we have.

Nintendo site has Switch at end of September at 22.86m (it's much closer to 23m not to 22m), and those are official shipped numbers. Yes, officaly shipped numbers are only official numbers we have, only NIntendo can give you official numbers how much exactly they shipped, this site, NPD, MC...they all track numbers and gathering sales data, those cant be officially numbers, those are all 3rd party numbers.

 

 

p0isonparadise said: 
Intrinsic said: 

My own personal estimate fr the NS was originally 50M. 

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 

This puts things in perspective.



Supermario28 on 18 December 2018

3mil in the US in Eleven days for smash!

8.7mil switch sold.

4mil BOTW
5 mil MK8DX
4.7 SMO
2mil Pokemon LG
1.4 Mario Party

105% growth for Eshop sales compared to 2017

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181218005282/en/Nintendo-Switch-Fastest-Selling-Video-Game-System-Generation



TheWPCTraveler on 18 December 2018

Nintendo has posted PR for November 2018: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181218005282/en/

Some highlights (USA only data):
- Switch sales > 8.7 million (March 2017 to November 2018)
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe > 5 million
- Super Mario Odyssey > 4.7 million
- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild > 4 million
- Smash Ultimate > 3 million (first eleven days)
- Pokémon Let's Go > 2 million
- Super Mario Party > 1.4 million



 
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