Comparing official ship numbers for both consoles have much more sense in any case than comparing sales estimates that are constantly being adjusted. No, quite opposite, wishful thinking would be expecting anything less than 18m in FY 2018. and less than 20m in FY 2019, with sales we having for current Q3 and things we know about 2019. Its very obvious that Switch is not 3DS in any case, Switch is selling better than 3DS in same time period without price cut and any revision, and if Switch sell couple millions more in FY 2019. than will in FY 2018. that wouldnt be explosion of sales in any case.

You are wrong, we comparing sales of two platforms, and when you do that you need to consider that 3DS had huge price cut only 6 months after launch in order to start selling, while Switch still has launch price point and its selling better than 3DS. And yes, Switch in its second full year on market start selling much better than 3DS was doing, NPD sales proves that, and next month Nintendo results for Nov-Dec period will also prove that.

We definitely should minimum 80m after 6 years for Switch, what you fail to see is that Switch is not like any previous Nintendo platform, and Switch is also different compared to previous Nintendo handhelds. Switch is unified Nintendo platform, that means all Nintendo focus and (undivided) support in any case just for one platform compared to any previous Nintendo generation, also Switch is selling to both home console and handheld market. Switch had better software, but hybrid nature of Switch is far appealing concept than 3DS in any case, Switch is selling to handheld and home console lowers in any case, 3DS was selling only to handheld lovers. You can think whatever you want, fact is that Switch is selling in this year better than 3DS+Wii U did combined in their second year on market on strongest market for Nintendo (US).

I think most of us expect that, PS4 hasn't done well the last couple of years against Nintendo has it? But it'll be PS4 Doom, then it'll be Jan/March and it'll be back to switch doom.

When it comes to 3DS vs Switch it is extremely important to factor in that 3DS had a price cut in year one and a revision in year two. Switch is already outpacing 3DS by a decent margin in the West and that will only accelerate once Switch receives those. Same goes for Japan, 3DS has built up a healthy lead over Switch there but Switch will start to close the gap or at least prevent it from growing more once it gets those.

There is obviously a chance that something happens which causes Switch to end below 3DS but that's looking more and more unlikely as time goes on.

And even if the price cut/revision doesn't accelerate momentum, keeping it at the current pace would still be good enough to get way ahead of the 3ds. Things look bright for the Switch

I can't believe I went through 49 pages.

All I have to say is most of the pessimistics don't include the fact that the Switch's audience isn't the same as previous Nintendo consoles or handhelds. The audience is a mixbag of classic Nintendo audience (kids, families) and a new audience that no one could expected (middle-aged people, around 25-50 YO, who don't play games anymore, or only on PC). That's the new audience which replaced the casual audience of the Wii. And this audience is more severe when it comes to games where quality is more important than quantity. Could you see Skyrim or Warframe, or any great indie titles sell more than 1 million on the Wii/3DS ? I don't think so. But those games are the ones which make the Switch appealing.

You say there are pessimistics, plural. Pessimistic is expecting more than 80M Switch sold by the end of its lifetime?. Really, how many people here have said that Switch is going to sell less than 3DS or less than 80M lifetime?? But i don't hear anything about the people expecting 100M+ sales for the Switch...What are those posters then, optimistics??, or just realistics?.

People are taking for granted how difficult is to sell 80M+ home consoles i think...... (home console price i mean so people don't come at me saying is an hybrid console)

Well, when the console have launched quite bad and had a cut under 6m, it would be more natural to consider that the initial price was the wrong one (even more when it was above regular HH). But sure we can expect some effect on the pricecut and revision for Switch.

Funny........ this is exactly what I have been saying over the last 4 pages or so. The mistake I made was that I tried to explain it and elaborate and use examples and data.

All along my point was that Going past 40M with only nintendo software is not only really hard but its actually something nintendo has never really done before. The need a lot more games to be an 80M console especially when you take into account the amount of IP  overlapping that is also apparent with nintendo platforms.

Well I am seeing its momentum too but that could really be explained.

The NS is selling like a $300 home console. And in truth its so far not putting the kinda numbers the PS4 managed to put as  $300 console. In 2017 the PS4 has its first ad only 20M sales year. And that year it was sold at $300. The NS in its second year and at $300 will do around 16M in total year sales. So say with a better price and more games it goes up to what? 20M? That could be possible but nothing about how its selling now suggests it can pull in 20M+ years.

It doesn't need a spectacular collapse in sales.... all it needs is two more years like this one.

Switch will do over 100M lifetime, easily.

Did you really quote me for one word despite all the things I said after that word ?