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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

globalisateur on 16 December 2018
Shadow1980 said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes I remember that and I agree with you.

And if the reason Xbox 1 kept ahead of X360 was its launch sales, how can anyone arguee that the reveal is really the cause for the drop against X360 5 years after the fact (while it didn't prevent it to have great launch)?

The funny thing about launches is that they rarely say anything about how well a system will perform afterward. Last gen we saw all three consoles with relatively mediocre launches:

 

The earliest adopters will buy a system in droves regardless of reception because they're dedicated to the brand enough to want it as early as possible. The only limiting factor is supply. I imagine the 360 would have sold well over 1.5M units if it weren't for supply constraints. Hell, it wouldn't have surprised me if the PS3 sold well over a million units even despite its high launch price. I remember the stories about people lining up and camping out to get a PS3, and there not being enough systems to go around. It seems the 360, PS3, and Wii were all short on supply when they came out.

PS4 was in limited quantity in many places in Europe (and World) for the first months and very hard to find. There started to be available (in limited quantity) in most stores in continental Europe maybe 4/5 months after the release. 



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Miyamotoo on 16 December 2018
Intrinsic said:

I do not know how else to say this without what I am saying being twisted.

 

  1. I do not believe the NS will sell more than the 3DS.

  2. And that is because I do not believe that any console can sell that many units on the merit f their first party software alone. And nintendo never actually have accomplished this. More on this in number 4

  3. The only exception is the wii... and that was driven more by the novelty of the hardware (motion controls) than anything else.

  4. And while nintend makes great games why i say nintendo games will not be enough is because of the nature of the nintendo audience. They don't just buy great games they primarily buy Nintendo games. And therin lies the problem. 

    If yu look at the PS4 for instance, Yu have the people that will buy the console for overwatch, those for GOW, those for COD, those for madden, those for assasins creed, thse for RDR......etc. And all these people can buy just the one or two games and none of the others.

    Now look at the library of most nintendo gamers. They could have 10 games and all are made by nintendo. So what tends to happen is that you have a lot of shared bases. The 5M people that bought the NS for Zelda make up 4M of the 5M that will buy it for Mario. This is why you can have a 20M install base and all of mario, zelda..... the usual suspects have all sold over 10M units. These games are most sold to the same people. When pokemn is released, mst of that 20M people will g and buy it. Along with the couple million new people the IP will bring to the fold. 

    Basically, with nintendo platforms what tends to happen is a lack of user diversity. They are all playing very diverse genres, but the all come from nintendo. So basically its like they are all buying one game. I don't knw if that makes sense.  Its like they arent just buying different games. They are buying nintendo.  

 

But you do realise that Switch is much appealing than 3DS was in any case? Thats why Switch is selling stronger than 3DS in same period despite difference that 3DS needed huge price cut only 6 months after launch to start selling better and point that already in same time period like Switch 3DS already had one one revision, Switch still has launch price and only one revision. Also how time is passing difference in sales will be only bigger compared to 3DS, 3DS for instance in its full second fiscal year after launch done 14m, Switch will in its full second fiscal year do around 5m more than 3DS (current 2018. FY), for third full fiscal year difference will be even bigger.

Talking about 3rd party support, Switch have more diverse lineup than 3DS, and Switch 3rd party support is increasing how time is passing. Also fact that you keep ignoring is that Switch in unfied Nintendo platform compared to 3DS, that means all Nintendo IPs (both handheld and home consoles) on single platform and full undivided support from Nintendo in any case, that includes exclusive 3rd party deals just for one platform.

 

What you failed to see is that Switch is not selling only to Nintendo gamers, plenty of PS4/XB1 owners buying Switch like secondary console, simple Switch is more than enough diverse to PS4/XB1 that people can easily buy despite they have PS4/XB1 in order to play Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Mario Kart, Smash, Metroid, Animal Crossing...in full handheld mode or in home console mode, same like people that want to play games like Dark Souls, Diablo 3, Doom, Wolfenstein, RE4...in full handheld mode.

80m is bare minimum that Switch will do, Switch can easily reach and past Wii sales, because compared to Wii, Switch buy time will start selling like device per person (when price point go to $200 or below).



Intrinsic on 16 December 2018
Miyamotoo said:

But you do realise that Switch is much appealing than 3DS was in any case? Thats why Switch is selling stronger than 3DS in same period despite difference that 3DS needed huge price cut only 6 months after launch to start selling better and point that already in same time period like Switch 3DS already had one one revision, Switch still has launch price and only one revision. Also how time is passing difference in sales will be only bigger compared to 3DS, 3DS for instance in its full second fiscal year after launch done 14m, Switch will in its full second fiscal year do around 5m more than 3DS (current 2018. FY), for third full fiscal year difference will be even bigger.

Talking about 3rd party support, Switch have more diverse lineup than 3DS, and Switch 3rd party support is increasing how time is passing. Also fact that you keep ignoring is that Switch in unfied Nintendo platform compared to 3DS, that means all Nintendo IPs (both handheld and home consoles) on single platform and full undivided support from Nintendo in any case, that includes exclusive 3rd party deals just for one platform.

 

What you failed to see is that Switch is not selling only to Nintendo gamers, plenty of PS4/XB1 owners buying Switch like secondary console, simple Switch is more than enough diverse to PS4/XB1 that people can easily buy despite they have PS4/XB1 in order to play Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Mario Kart, Smash, Metroid, Animal Crossing...in full handheld mode or in home console mode, same like people that want to play games like Dark Souls, Diablo 3, Doom, Wolfenstein, RE4...in full handheld mode.

80m is bare minimum that Switch will do, Switch can easily reach and past Wii sales, because compared to Wii, Switch buy time will start selling like device per person (when price point go to $200 or below).

If it starts selling multiple devices per household and as such is selling like a handheld then sure it can pass 80M.

We will see how it goes.



JSG87 on 16 December 2018
Intrinsic said:

I do not know how else to say this without what I am saying being twisted.

 

  1. I do not believe the NS will sell more than the 3DS.

  2. And that is because I do not believe that any console can sell that many units on the merit f their first party software alone. And nintendo never actually have accomplished this. More on this in number 4

  3. The only exception is the wii... and that was driven more by the novelty of the hardware (motion controls) than anything else.

  4. And while nintend makes great games why i say nintendo games will not be enough is because of the nature of the nintendo audience. They don't just buy great games they primarily buy Nintendo games. And therin lies the problem. 

    If yu look at the PS4 for instance, Yu have the people that will buy the console for overwatch, those for GOW, those for COD, those for madden, those for assasins creed, thse for RDR......etc. And all these people can buy just the one or two games and none of the others.

    Now look at the library of most nintendo gamers. They could have 10 games and all are made by nintendo. So what tends to happen is that you have a lot of shared bases. The 5M people that bought the NS for Zelda make up 4M of the 5M that will buy it for Mario. This is why you can have a 20M install base and all of mario, zelda..... the usual suspects have all sold over 10M units. These games are most sold to the same people. When pokemn is released, mst of that 20M people will g and buy it. Along with the couple million new people the IP will bring to the fold. 

    Basically, with nintendo platforms what tends to happen is a lack of user diversity. They are all playing very diverse genres, but the all come from nintendo. So basically its like they are all buying one game. I don't knw if that makes sense.  Its like they arent just buying different games. They are buying nintendo.  

 

 

Regarding your point about all these games selling over 10 million, a lot of the franchises are headed to their highest ever numbers. Based on that alone it's clear that there is the usual hardcore Nintendo Base there already but clearly a nee set if customers that have never bothered with Nintendo before. This increases the likelihood of 3Rd parties selling well on Switch which is happening I believe. I get what you've been saying about the games though. Once the ps5 & nextbox release it will be handed for Nintendo to garner the 3Rd party support it needs to keep to hit a high of at least 80 million consoles sold. What I do think though is that companies will make exclusive subsets of their already established franchises for Switch since the Hardware numbers will probably be approaching 50+ million once the next generation arrives.

Exclusives will have to drive the system along with Nintendos output.



Miyamotoo on 16 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Miyamotoo said:

But you do realise that Switch is much appealing than 3DS was in any case? Thats why Switch is selling stronger than 3DS in same period despite difference that 3DS needed huge price cut only 6 months after launch to start selling better and point that already in same time period like Switch 3DS already had one one revision, Switch still has launch price and only one revision. Also how time is passing difference in sales will be only bigger compared to 3DS, 3DS for instance in its full second fiscal year after launch done 14m, Switch will in its full second fiscal year do around 5m more than 3DS (current 2018. FY), for third full fiscal year difference will be even bigger.

Talking about 3rd party support, Switch have more diverse lineup than 3DS, and Switch 3rd party support is increasing how time is passing. Also fact that you keep ignoring is that Switch in unfied Nintendo platform compared to 3DS, that means all Nintendo IPs (both handheld and home consoles) on single platform and full undivided support from Nintendo in any case, that includes exclusive 3rd party deals just for one platform.

 

What you failed to see is that Switch is not selling only to Nintendo gamers, plenty of PS4/XB1 owners buying Switch like secondary console, simple Switch is more than enough diverse to PS4/XB1 that people can easily buy despite they have PS4/XB1 in order to play Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Mario Kart, Smash, Metroid, Animal Crossing...in full handheld mode or in home console mode, same like people that want to play games like Dark Souls, Diablo 3, Doom, Wolfenstein, RE4...in full handheld mode.

80m is bare minimum that Switch will do, Switch can easily reach and past Wii sales, because compared to Wii, Switch buy time will start selling like device per person (when price point go to $200 or below).

If it starts selling multiple devices per household and as such is selling like a handheld then sure it can pass 80M.

We will see how it goes.

Main point of Switch is hybrid nature, in other words handheld side of Switch that other consoles dont offers, so not that Switch is great console for Nintendo handheld/home consoles lowers, but generally great secondary console for PS/Xbox owners. And with biggest point Switch essentially being handheld hardware and biggest advantage offering fully handheld mode, Switch will in any case in some point of its life start selling like device per person,espacily with multiple revisions, lower price point, and games like Pokemon and Animal Crossing, but with addition of full home console 3D Zelda, 3D Mario..

Also, Switch selling like device per person instead of device per house is ultimate goal of Nintendo (they said that), and they even said that price point is still not there for such a sales yet, but with more available versions and with price point of $200 or lower we talking about totally different thing. They also said they want to support Switch more than usual 5-6 years on market.

Like I wrote, Switch is only Nintendo platform, and like that Switch have much bigger and stronger plans from Nintendo and it will have much better and stronger support in any case (dont talking only about 1st party games) than past Nintendo platforms had.



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DonFerrari on 16 December 2018
xMetroid said:
Y'all expecting the Switch to barely best the 3DS and ending up at like 80 millions are in for a surprise.
The consumers weren't interested in the 3DS to begin with and it got a significant price cut in it's first year to start selling, but the Switch being already more expensive and without any cuts and barely any deals (best one was the MK8 bundle and it's BF only..) it's outpacing the 3DS.

Sure 2018 was kinda dry in system sellers, but i really think 2019 will be on another level. Nintendo didn't change their target for the FY and it would be really terrible to not reduce it if things were looking like so. It's way better to reduce your goal than meet the expectations then not reaching it by aiming too high.
Let's say it's at 30 million by the end of 2018. It would need 50 million in 4 years minimum to reach that 80 million. 2018 is clearly not it's peak, no revision yet, no system seller during the whole year. 2019 is looking so much bigger and better than this year and i think it really has a shot at selling through 20 + millions, sure thing if the new switch hardware rumours are true.

Don't see it having a Wii like peak but will easily have better legs. Once it gets cheaper, it will be a multiple console by household type of thing. 80 million would be the absolute worst case scenario.

So if you are saying that the fact Nintendo didn't change their forecast so far is a warranty that they will ship 20M this FY? ok. So what about all the projections they missed on WiiU even after doing several down revisions?

Will wait for this misterious 2-3M additional sales that we haven't seem where will come from.

LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Intrinsic said:

Then you lack simple readin comprehension because that is not what I am saying. 

And you need to t drop this Benji nonsense. If you wanna share his comments go right ahead. But leave the side remarks out f it and stop twisting what he says. Thts just bait.  

That's exactly what you were saying and you left the most important part of what makes the Switch is a more desirable product than the 3DS. 

Hint: The hardware itself. 

Nintendo 3DS received a massive price cut in the early life of the system and the glasses-free 3D gimmick was never had taken off like what they were expecting. They scrapped the 3D part in the next models. 

The switch is currently selling at the full price nearly 2 years on the market and software sales of switches are above 3ds software sales numbers by a huge margin. 

Try to comprehend the entire scope of 2 consoles first dude. 

Besides 3DS being still sold even when 2DS was offered (and I don't remember 2DS becoming the best selling form) you are saying that the creation of 2DS show 3DS wasn't a desirable HW. So if at any point we get a table only or HH only Switch version this shows the hybrid isn't desirable?

Shadow1980 said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes I remember that and I agree with you.

And if the reason Xbox 1 kept ahead of X360 was its launch sales, how can anyone arguee that the reveal is really the cause for the drop against X360 5 years after the fact (while it didn't prevent it to have great launch)?

The funny thing about launches is that they rarely say anything about how well a system will perform afterward. Last gen we saw all three consoles with relatively mediocre launches:

 

The earliest adopters will buy a system in droves regardless of reception because they're dedicated to the brand enough to want it as early as possible. The only limiting factor is supply. I imagine the 360 would have sold well over 1.5M units if it weren't for supply constraints. Hell, it wouldn't have surprised me if the PS3 sold well over a million units even despite its high launch price. I remember the stories about people lining up and camping out to get a PS3, and there not being enough systems to go around. It seems the 360, PS3, and Wii were all short on supply when they came out.

That much is true, even with so many people complaining about the price of PS3 the sold everything for some of their first months.

But let's skip the first 2M that bought X1 at launch window. We don't really see X1 that much lower than X360 at any point, it is more consistently a little worse that when accumulated put X1 below X360 long term than bad first year or two and then a spike in sales after some turn around in sales.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

colafitte on 16 December 2018

I still don't understand this notion about some posters here saying that Switch is tracking way better than 3DS at the moment....

3DS at the end of 2011 -> 13'2M
NS at the end of 2017 -> 13'1M

3DS at the end of 2012 -> 14'1M -> 27'3M LT
NS at the end of 2018 -> around 16M -> around 29M LT (30M if you want to be optimistic)

Why people keep saying Switch is doing much better when the data says otherwise??. Is doing better, yes, but not that better. And we're talking sales, not talking about price or price cuts, because then, PS4 and XBO were way more expensive than Switch.

For example, 3DS did 5'5M during 2012 in Japan. The real difference with Switch is that Switch is doing better in the west than 3DS but Switch is doing worse in Japan.

I think this mentality has spread because Switch is doing way better in USA than 3DS and the american-centric focus in the press and in the media gives Switch way more representation. But the numbers are there.

And by the way, 3DS, sold 13'2M in 2011, 14'1M in 2012 and 14'3M in 2013. And after that, it never reached 10M in a year again....(and this despite Pokemon X/Y launching at the end of 2013 and Pokemon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire and Smash Bros 3DS launching a year later).

Last edited by colafitte - on 16 December 2018

Miyamotoo on 16 December 2018
colafitte said:

I still don't understand this notion about some posters here saying that Switch is tracking way better than 3DS at the moment....

3DS at the end of 2011 -> 13'2M
NS at the end of 2017 -> 13'1M

3DS at the end of 2012 -> 14'1M -> 27'3M LT
NS at the end of 2018 -> around 16M -> around 29M LT (30M if you want to be optimistic)

Why people keep saying Switch is doing much better when the data says otherwise??. Is doing better, yes, but not that better. And we're talking sales, not talking about price or price cuts, because then, PS4 and XBO were way more expensive than Switch.

For example, 3DS did 5'5M during 2012 in Japan. The real difference with Switch is that Switch is doing better in the west than 3DS but Switch is doing worse in Japan.

I think this mentality has spread because Switch is doing way better in USA than 3DS and the american-centric focus in the press and in the media gives Switch way more representation. But the numbers are there.

And by the way, 3DS, sold 13'2M in 2011, 14'1M in 2012 and 14'3M in 2013. And after that, it never reached 10M in a year again....

Again, its far more easier to compare official ship number than anything else:

-3DS launch vs Switch Launch (march 2011. vs march 2017) - 3.6m vs 2.74m (have on mind that Switch was completely sold out on launch while 3DS wasn't)

-3DS FY 2011. (April 2011. - March 2012) vs Switch FY 2017. (April 2017. - March 2018) - 13.5m vs 15.05m

-3DS FY 2012. (April 2012. - March 2013) vs Switch FY 2018. (April 2018. - March 2019) - 13.95m vs 18m+ (bare minimum)

-3DS FY 2013. (April 2013. - March 2014) vs Switch FY 2019. (April 2019. - March 2020) - 13.53m vs 20m+ (projected year with all things we know about 2019. Switch year for now, including confirmed games, very possible price cut and new revision)

 

So like you can see, 3DS only has stronger launch month and only reason for that is that Switch was completely sold out while 3DS that wasnt and 3DS actually received huge price cut only 6 months after launch. So right after launch month, Switch in its first hole fiscal year whithout any price cut and with huge stock problems sold better than 3DS that had huge price cut (from $250 to $170-180) in order to start selling better. In second full fiscal year Switch will sell around 5m units more than 3DS did in same year, in third year difference will be even bigger.

And yes, when comparing Switch vs 3DS sales, point that 3DS had huge price cut while Switch still did not definitely counts, because that points that Switch achieving this sales without need for huge price cut compared to 3DS, and that means much healthier sales in any case.

Yes, 3DS was doing better than Switch in same time period in Japan, but on all other markets outside Japan, Switch is selling much better than 3DS in same time period. Also for comparison, Switch was selling better than 3DS in Japan until 3DS didn't receive price cut, only after that huge price cut 3DS had stronger sales in Japan than Switch did in some time period. What is currently keeping Switch from selling better or similar to 3DS in Japan is $300 price point that for plenty people is very high price point, for people that look at Switch only like handheld device and on market where plenty of people buying handheld device per person (and $300 Switch still has high price point for something like that). Also have on mind that 3DS sales in Japan were very strong in any case, 3DS third best selling gaming hardware ever in Japan, counting every home console and every handheld, only DS and GameBoy and GameBoy Color combined sold better than 3DS in Japan.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 16 December 2018

LipeJJ on 16 December 2018
colafitte said:

I still don't understand this notion about some posters here saying that Switch is tracking way better than 3DS at the moment....

3DS at the end of 2011 -> 13'2M
NS at the end of 2017 -> 13'1M

3DS at the end of 2012 -> 14'1M -> 27'3M LT
NS at the end of 2018 -> around 16M -> around 29M LT (30M if you want to be optimistic)

Why people keep saying Switch is doing much better when the data says otherwise??. Is doing better, yes, but not that better. And we're talking sales, not talking about price or price cuts, because then, PS4 and XBO were way more expensive than Switch.

For example, 3DS did 5'5M during 2012 in Japan. The real difference with Switch is that Switch is doing better in the west than 3DS but Switch is doing worse in Japan.

I think this mentality has spread because Switch is doing way better in USA than 3DS and the american-centric focus in the press and in the media gives Switch way more representation. But the numbers are there.

And by the way, 3DS, sold 13'2M in 2011, 14'1M in 2012 and 14'3M in 2013. And after that, it never reached 10M in a year again....(and this despite Pokemon X/Y launching at the end of 2013 and Pokemon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire and Smash Bros 3DS launching a year later).

That's probably because Switch is tracking much better this holiday so far already and is expected be at least at 35m shipped (more like 37m) by the end of March when it turns 2 years old. The big differences are starting to show this quarter.

Not to mention it's doing that while costing $130 more.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

abronn627 on 16 December 2018
colafitte said:

I still don't understand this notion about some posters here saying that Switch is tracking way better than 3DS at the moment....

3DS at the end of 2011 -> 13'2M
NS at the end of 2017 -> 13'1M

3DS at the end of 2012 -> 14'1M -> 27'3M LT
NS at the end of 2018 -> around 16M -> around 29M LT (30M if you want to be optimistic)

Why people keep saying Switch is doing much better when the data says otherwise??. Is doing better, yes, but not that better. And we're talking sales, not talking about price or price cuts, because then, PS4 and XBO were way more expensive than Switch.

For example, 3DS did 5'5M during 2012 in Japan. The real difference with Switch is that Switch is doing better in the west than 3DS but Switch is doing worse in Japan.

I think this mentality has spread because Switch is doing way better in USA than 3DS and the american-centric focus in the press and in the media gives Switch way more representation. But the numbers are there.

And by the way, 3DS, sold 13'2M in 2011, 14'1M in 2012 and 14'3M in 2013. And after that, it never reached 10M in a year again....(and this despite Pokemon X/Y launching at the end of 2013 and Pokemon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire and Smash Bros 3DS launching a year later)

Mainly because the 3DS needed a massive price cut in the first year, thus removing any potential price reduction overtime to maintain steady sales, which explain why the console peaked in it’s first year. The Switch still have this advantage and has yet to sell like handheld.

The sales distribution between regions also favors the Switch since the shipments are more balanced from one region to another, while 3DS were more prominent in Japan. 

So even if both are selling at the same pace, the Switch has more potential growth in the long run than the 3DS ever had, sonwe should see a gap forming sooner than later.

That’s my take.