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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - The reason the switch is barely starting and sales will explode next few years +250m LTD

JRPGfan on 09 December 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
DakonBlackblade said:

There is one big thing you guys are forgetting about that will threaten the Switch quite a bit. The next Xbox and PS5, Switch can't hope to run the games that will be made for the enxt gen, itll be a WiiU scenario again from third party suport perspective whent hat happens. I believe Switch is good enought on its own to have some exclusive third party titles and Nint games are great but I think theres a cealling to its growth that is directly dependant on how soon the next generation starts.

Yes it can.

Just look at how games in 4K still struggle with Ultra settings on PC, and yet also run at least on an XBO. Next gen won't be quite as powerful as a high-end PCs of today (I expect something with similar performance to a Vega 56 + Ryzen 5 2600 combo, more than that will probably heat up too much even in 7nm) and still the current gen will continue to get fed the same games as the next gen for a couple years at the very least, and by extension so can the Switch - especially if it gets an upgrade down the road which would bring it close to XBO performance.

Vega 56, is better than a stock Geforce 1070, at 4k.
if your okay with just stable 30+ fps, theres alot of current games you can run at 4k with Very-high / Ultra settings with that on a pc.

With a console, where overhead is lowered and things can be better optimised...
something like that would be better than most people's gameing PC (except for those very high end builds).

 

https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2017-amd-radeon-rx-vega-56-review_9

 

3840x2160 (4K) RX Vega 56 R9 Fury X GTX 1070 GTX 1080 GTX 1080 Ti
Assassin's Creed Unity, Ultra High, FXAA 25.8 23.3 25.9 33.0 45.4
Ashes of the Singularity, Extreme, 0x MSAA, DX12 54.4 48.8 48.7 60.2 76.8
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare, Max, Post-AA 70.4 60.0 58.5 75.3 96.6
Crysis 3, Very High, SMAA T2x 31.4 32.1 31.9 40.3 53.3
The Division, Ultra, SMAA 36.8 33.3 32.1 40.3 52.3
Far Cry Primal, Ultra, SMAA 38.6 35.1 33.8 42.3 55.2
Ghost Recon Wildlands, Ultra, TAA 26.3 18.6 23.3 29.6 37.3
Hitman, Ultra, SMAA, DX12 53.1 48.4 48.4 60.9 75.9
Rise of the Tomb Raider, Very High, High Textures, SMAA, DX12 39.6 34.0 36.1 46.2 60.5
The Witcher 3, Ultra, Post AA, No HairWorks 41.1 37.6 37.4 47.6 64.1

^ this is with early drivers for the Vega (launch review, vs kinda matured nvidia drivers)
Real world performance today is probably much better for the vega.



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KBG29 on 09 December 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
DakonBlackblade said:

There is one big thing you guys are forgetting about that will threaten the Switch quite a bit. The next Xbox and PS5, Switch can't hope to run the games that will be made for the enxt gen, itll be a WiiU scenario again from third party suport perspective whent hat happens. I believe Switch is good enought on its own to have some exclusive third party titles and Nint games are great but I think theres a cealling to its growth that is directly dependant on how soon the next generation starts.

Yes it can.

Just look at how games in 4K still struggle with Ultra settings on PC, and yet also run at least on an XBO. Next gen won't be quite as powerful as a high-end PCs of today (I expect something with similar performance to a Vega 56 + Ryzen 5 2600 combo, more than that will probably heat up too much even in 7nm) and still the current gen will continue to get fed the same games as the next gen for a couple years at the very least, and by extension so can the Switch - especially if it gets an upgrade down the road which would bring it close to XBO performance.

The baseline for those current games is the XBO. When the baseline for next gen games moves to at a 'minimum', 3GHz 8Core Ryzen, 12TFLOPS Navi GPU, 16GB of GDDR5, and SSD Storage, it will not be possible to downgrade them enough. The 3rd party titles that PS4/XBO get after PS5/XB4 release will either be 540p-720p/~30fps versions of the PS5/XB4 titles, or just retreads of previous year games, on old engines.

 The only reason games run at 900p/1080p on XBO and PS4 right now is because they are the target/baseline platforms. Because games have to run at ~1080p/30 on these, it is not that dramatic for Switch to run them at 540p-720p/30. When PS4/XBO are getting unstable 20-30fps games at 540p-720p, the Switch versions would be running at 240p-320p/15-20fps. 



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Bofferbrauer2 on 09 December 2018
JRPGfan said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Yes it can.

Just look at how games in 4K still struggle with Ultra settings on PC, and yet also run at least on an XBO. Next gen won't be quite as powerful as a high-end PCs of today (I expect something with similar performance to a Vega 56 + Ryzen 5 2600 combo, more than that will probably heat up too much even in 7nm) and still the current gen will continue to get fed the same games as the next gen for a couple years at the very least, and by extension so can the Switch - especially if it gets an upgrade down the road which would bring it close to XBO performance.

Vega 56, is better than a stock Geforce 1070, at 4k.
if your okay with just stable 30+ fps, theres alot of current games you can run at 4k with Very-high / Ultra settings with that on a pc.

With a console, where overhead is lowered and things can be better optimised...
something like that would be better than most people's gameing PC (except for those very high end builds).

 

https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2017-amd-radeon-rx-vega-56-review_9

 

3840x2160 (4K) RX Vega 56 R9 Fury X GTX 1070 GTX 1080 GTX 1080 Ti
Assassin's Creed Unity, Ultra High, FXAA 25.8 23.3 25.9 33.0 45.4
Ashes of the Singularity, Extreme, 0x MSAA, DX12 54.4 48.8 48.7 60.2 76.8
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare, Max, Post-AA 70.4 60.0 58.5 75.3 96.6
Crysis 3, Very High, SMAA T2x 31.4 32.1 31.9 40.3 53.3
The Division, Ultra, SMAA 36.8 33.3 32.1 40.3 52.3
Far Cry Primal, Ultra, SMAA 38.6 35.1 33.8 42.3 55.2
Ghost Recon Wildlands, Ultra, TAA 26.3 18.6 23.3 29.6 37.3
Hitman, Ultra, SMAA, DX12 53.1 48.4 48.4 60.9 75.9
Rise of the Tomb Raider, Very High, High Textures, SMAA, DX12 39.6 34.0 36.1 46.2 60.5
The Witcher 3, Ultra, Post AA, No HairWorks 41.1 37.6 37.4 47.6 64.1

^ this is with early drivers for the Vega (launch review, vs kinda matured nvidia drivers)
Real world performance today is probably much better for the vega.

That was true then - but will it still hold up nearly as well when the next gen gets released next, or worse, 2 years from now? By then something of the power of a Vega 56 is probably only good enough for 1440p gaming anymore unless turning down the visual quality by some degree.

Oh, and while the drivers have matured, the games that released since then also got more demanding, making it a bit of a status quo for now, but, like I said, certainly not for the future.



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JamesGarret on 09 December 2018

When I saw the thread title I immediately thought "god damn John Lucas is back!"...but I feel like you´re channeling him there.



The_Liquid_Laser on 09 December 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

You are saying that "in their wisdom they rejected motion controls in favor of the Wii U gamepad".  Not a great explanation.

No, just saying that they felt that some games just didn't profit from motion controls.

And hey, the Wiimotes work with the Wii U, so certainly they didn't reject them in favor of the gamepad. And they are still not rejecting motion controls, just look at the joycons

It's true that some games don't profit from motion controls, but they basically dropped it as the focus.  On the Wii, motion controls were the focus.  The Wii U should have launched with a "Wii U Sports Resort" game.  That would have shown that they are still trying to keep all the customers that liked Wii Sports.  They abandoned the Wii Sports line of games, and it was obviously a very profitable franchise.

TheMisterManGuy said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The reason you "don't buy it" is that you don't understand Nintendo.  I mean you say they have always been an "ADHD company".  If that's how you see them, then you are going to reject any reasonable explanation in favor of saying, "I think Nintendo sucks just because."

Okay, so I don't understand Nintendo, despite the fact that you pulled your whole "their first party developers hated making Wii games" argument out of your ass. Second, I'm basing this on Nintendo's ACTIONS over the years. It's hard to argue looking at what Nintendo has done over each generation that they change their focus on a more constant basis than the other two. I even gave an example. Nintendo went with a split controller with motion for a 7th gen console, then dumped it for a tablet controller in its successor, now they're back to the split controller concept for their current system. Or how about Miiverse, despite all the hype and buzz it got among Nintendo and its fans, they abandoned that shit as soon as we got to the Switch. 

Your very post shows that you don't understand Nintendo.  You seem to think that there have only been 2 console makers other than Nintendo.  Also you only mention the home console market.  Your very post shows you don't understand the video game market.

If you know what you were talking about then would also be comparing them to companies like Sega, NEC, Atari, etc....  You might also examine the handheld market.  You seem to think the video game market started in generation 6 and only includes the home console market.  That's why I think you don't know what you're talking about.  To an ignorant person, a reasonable explanation sounds like bullshit.  You called my post bullshit, because you are ignorant.  You need to do your homework.

It's like this, a first grader just learns 2+2=4, and then they heard someone talking about derivatives.  To the first grader this sounds like made up bullshit, but the truth is that they don't know anything.  My post sounds like made up bullshit to you, because you hardly know anything. 



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TheMisterManGuy on 09 December 2018

The_Liquid_Laser said: 

Your very post shows that you don't understand Nintendo.  You seem to think that there have only been 2 console makers other than Nintendo.  Also you only mention the home console market.  Your very post shows you don't understand the video game market.

If you know what you were talking about then would also be comparing them to companies like Sega, NEC, Atari, etc....  You might also examine the handheld market.  You seem to think the video game market started in generation 6 and only includes the home console market.  That's why I think you don't know what you're talking about.  To an ignorant person, a reasonable explanation sounds like bullshit.  You called my post bullshit, because you are ignorant.  You need to do your homework.

It's like this, a first grader just learns 2+2=4, and then they heard someone talking about derivatives.  To the first grader this sounds like made up bullshit, but the truth is that they don't know anything.  My post sounds like made up bullshit to you, because you hardly know anything. 

This is pretty rich coming from the same person who just a few posts ago, made up some nonsensical argument about Nintendo's developers hating to develop Wii games, without a shred of evidence to back it up. While my claims are obviously my opinions, I did have some form credible example to provide for them. 

Also, Yes, I do no about failed hardware makers like Sega and NEC (I'd say Sega was even more ADHD). But they're irrelevant to my point. We're not talking about the companies who competed in the past, we're talking about today, who Nintendo's contemporaries are NOW. And compared to Sony and Microsoft, Nintendo is more ADD than both of them. 



The_Liquid_Laser on 09 December 2018
TheMisterManGuy said:

The_Liquid_Laser said: 

Your very post shows that you don't understand Nintendo.  You seem to think that there have only been 2 console makers other than Nintendo.  Also you only mention the home console market.  Your very post shows you don't understand the video game market.

If you know what you were talking about then would also be comparing them to companies like Sega, NEC, Atari, etc....  You might also examine the handheld market.  You seem to think the video game market started in generation 6 and only includes the home console market.  That's why I think you don't know what you're talking about.  To an ignorant person, a reasonable explanation sounds like bullshit.  You called my post bullshit, because you are ignorant.  You need to do your homework.

It's like this, a first grader just learns 2+2=4, and then they heard someone talking about derivatives.  To the first grader this sounds like made up bullshit, but the truth is that they don't know anything.  My post sounds like made up bullshit to you, because you hardly know anything. 

This is pretty rich coming from the same person who just a few posts ago, made up some nonsensical argument about Nintendo's developers hating to develop Wii games, without a shred of evidence to back it up. While my claims are obviously my opinions, I did have some form credible example to provide for them. 

Also, Yes, I do no about failed hardware makers like Sega and NEC (I'd say Sega was even more ADHD). But they're irrelevant to my point. We're not talking about the companies who competed in the past, we're talking about today, who Nintendo's contemporaries are NOW. And compared to Sony and Microsoft, Nintendo is more ADD than both of them. 

If you ignore the past, then you don't understand Nintendo.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

SilenceDeadly on 09 December 2018

250M is off the table.

150M I see possible.



trent44 on 09 December 2018
SilenceDeadly said:
250M is off the table.

150M I see possible.

150M is still third place though, we need your divine oracle sight to deem what is truth... is 160M still on the table???



kirby007 on 09 December 2018
trent44 said:
SilenceDeadly said:
250M is off the table.

150M I see possible.

150M is still third place though, we need your divine oracle sight to deem what is truth... is 160M still on the table???

Frankly with the switch phone 300m ez



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