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Japan Sales Week 48 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - November 26-December 2, 2018

Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 48 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - November 26-December 2, 2018

curl-6 said:

Switch outselling PS4 by 6:1 without a major release this week.

What are the LTD sales for both systems in Japan? At this rate it surely can't be too long before Switch passes PS4 in total Japanese hardware sales?

As of this week:
PS4: 7,314,121
NSW: 5,830,878

Also, this reminds me of that thread about whether the Switch or Vita would get to 6m first.  As of now, it's:
Vita: 5,952,964
NSW: 5,830,878

I guess next week is going put an end to that debate.



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zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch outselling PS4 by 6:1 without a major release this week.

What are the LTD sales for both systems in Japan? At this rate it surely can't be too long before Switch passes PS4 in total Japanese hardware sales?

NSW-5.83m

PS4-7.31m

 

I'm guessing the gap will close to 500-600k at the end of the year.

Kinda crazy thinking about Switch potentially overtaking the PS4 in LT sales in Japan in such a short amount of time. And despite the big AAA games releasing on PS4 this year (i.e., Monster Hunter World, God of War, BO4, Spiderman, etc.), the Switch has been unfazed this year in Japan.



curl-6 said:

Switch outselling PS4 by 6:1 without a major release this week.

What are the LTD sales for both systems in Japan? At this rate it surely can't be too long before Switch passes PS4 in total Japanese hardware sales?

Switch - 5.830m
PS4 - 7.314m

According to Media Create. Still 1.5m to go, of which a significant chunk will be made during the holiday season. Afterwards it depends on where the baselines for the two consoles settle in 2019, so giving a good estimate isn't easy. Release-wise, the first calendar quarter tends to be PlayStation's best and Nintendo's worst, so that's a factor that can push back the date.

It will definitely happen in 2019, but without knowing the margin that will be left after the holiday season, it's really hard to narrow it down to a specific month or two.



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RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Switch outselling PS4 by 6:1 without a major release this week.

What are the LTD sales for both systems in Japan? At this rate it surely can't be too long before Switch passes PS4 in total Japanese hardware sales?

Switch - 5.830m
PS4 - 7.314m

According to Media Create. Still 1.5m to go, of which a significant chunk will be made during the holiday season. Afterwards it depends on where the baselines for the two consoles settle in 2019, so giving a good estimate isn't easy. Release-wise, the first calendar quarter tends to be PlayStation's best and Nintendo's worst, so that's a factor that can push back the date.

It will definitely happen in 2019, but without knowing the margin that will be left after the holiday season, it's really hard to narrow it down to a specific month or two.

Hey, good to see you back dude! Was bummed out when you got banned.



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curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

Switch - 5.830m
PS4 - 7.314m

According to Media Create. Still 1.5m to go, of which a significant chunk will be made during the holiday season. Afterwards it depends on where the baselines for the two consoles settle in 2019, so giving a good estimate isn't easy. Release-wise, the first calendar quarter tends to be PlayStation's best and Nintendo's worst, so that's a factor that can push back the date.

It will definitely happen in 2019, but without knowing the margin that will be left after the holiday season, it's really hard to narrow it down to a specific month or two.

Hey, good to see you back dude! Was bummed out when you got banned.

Isn't that like every month or so at this point :P



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Lonely_Dolphin said:
Labo not in the top 20 I see. Probably wont see any more kits then.

 

I remember when people were saying "Labo is not a flop, it will sell like crazy during the holidays for kids, it's just a first soft launch, you'll see!". Good times. 



JSG87 said:
Hang on so the Switch is up on last week and only 4K down on last year's sales for the same week and this is a disappointment? Switch didn't explode until the week Pokemon launched. Same could happen with Smash. Let's wait and see what happens next week. One thing I will say is that Smash should easily sell over 1 million games next week in Japan and if 200K consoles can sell with 600K Pokemon games then that should be the floor for Switch sales next week.

since you are comparing it with last year.

Let's add more context.

2017:March Launch. Not full year. 2017 is plagued with massive shortage.

2018: No massive shortage and Switch is available. Full year.

To elaborate further, it should be massively up, not on par or down.  This was the expectation for 2018. Labo should have been the next big thing but it failed. I think we should be an agreement that Labo failed what is supposed to do.  So it will be logical for me to think Switch sales is a disappointment.  Just because it is a disappointment it doesn't mean it sold bad. Anyway, let's see what Smash will do next week that will be interesting and the PS4 temporary price cut will do.

 

Anyway, on Pokemon Let's Go. To add more context. It's still not selling it's initial shipments. 

as for the 2019 talks. PS4 will have a great Q1 again. KH III might sell a lot of console with 2 limited edition for it. RE 2 will be a wild card it might bring the old RE fans again.



NoCtiS_NoX said:
JSG87 said:
Hang on so the Switch is up on last week and only 4K down on last year's sales for the same week and this is a disappointment? Switch didn't explode until the week Pokemon launched. Same could happen with Smash. Let's wait and see what happens next week. One thing I will say is that Smash should easily sell over 1 million games next week in Japan and if 200K consoles can sell with 600K Pokemon games then that should be the floor for Switch sales next week.

since you are comparing it with last year.

Let's add more context.

2017:March Launch. Not full year. 2017 is plagued with massive shortage.

2018: No massive shortage and Switch is available. Full year.

To elaborate further, it should be massively up, not on par or down.  This was the expectation for 2018. Labo should have been the next big thing but it failed. I think we should be an agreement that Labo failed what is supposed to do.  So it will be logical for me to think Switch sales is a disappointment.  Just because it is a disappointment it doesn't mean it sold bad. Anyway, let's see what Smash will do next week that will be interesting and the PS4 temporary price cut will do.

 

Anyway, on Pokemon Let's Go. To add more context. It's still not selling it's initial shipments. 

as for the 2019 talks. PS4 will have a great Q1 again. KH III might sell a lot of console with 2 limited edition for it. RE 2 will be a wild card it might bring the old RE fans again.

For what its worth, Nintendo did not have the must have titles until late in the year. At least with 2017, Splatoon 2, Zelda, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe were the big titles that carried the interest and momentum throughout most of the year despite the stock issues. For this year, even though Mario Tennis Aces and Super Mario Party were return to form, Octopath Traveler was a surprising success, and we got a plethora of Wii U ports, those types of titles were not expected to help increase hardware. I get you mentioned Labo, and I was hoping it would help expand the audience, but even then it was a wild card that a good amount of people were betting on.

As for the bolded, was Let's Go supposed to sell all of its initial shipments at this time? It's likely for the holiday season in general as sales-wise, its doing good if you ask me. Especially if you want to give it context, such as this is the first $60 mainline game ($100 w/ the Poke Ball Plus), mixed fan reaction pre-release (though I'm not sure how the Japanese audience thought of Let's Go pre-release), not a next gen Pokemon game, it's on a relatively smaller user base compared to the 3DS when X/Y came out, etc. And despite that, Let's Go managed to pretty much double its COMG numbers in its FW in Japan and sell 3 million WW, for what its worth. Likely netting more revenue for Nintendo overall compared to even Pokemon Sun and Moon (despite S/M selling like gangbusters) because of the Switch itself being a more expensive product than the 3DS in 2016.

I guess though, an on-par or bad second year won't dictate the trajectory of a console's overall LT sales. Things can happen. One of the reasons the PS2 continued selling well, in its twilight years, after generation 7 started was because the PS3 was having a hard time getting off the ground. The 3DS was able to start gaining momentum after a disappointing start once Nintendo slashed the price significantly (which I'm not sure if people expected that at the time). 2019 can potentially be the Switch's best year as Nintendo has more original first party titles waiting in the wings and are not just relying on ports and Labo to carry them until Pokemon and Smash came out. In 2019, we at least have Fire Emblem Three Houses, Luigi's Mansion 3, Animal Crossing, Daemon x Machina, Town, Travis Strikes Again: No More Heroes (not first-party but exclusive), and Pokemon Gen 8, plus a plethora of notable ports such as Resident Evil 4, Final Fantasy VII (on a Nintendo console for the first time ever!), Dragon Quest XI S, and NSMBUD.

Last edited by Kai_Mao - on 05 December 2018

Faelco said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:
Labo not in the top 20 I see. Probably wont see any more kits then.

 

I remember when people were saying "Labo is not a flop, it will sell like crazy during the holidays for kids, it's just a first soft launch, you'll see!". Good times. 

Well to be fair, the head of Nintendo France said he expected 80% of Labo sales to come during the holiday quarter which led many of us to believe they were going to have a massive marketing campaign for it during that time but that never happened.

It just seems weird that they had so much confidence in its holiday sales if they weren't going to give it any extra push.



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