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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will the XBOX One outsell the SNES?

 

Will XBOX One outsell the SNES?

Yes 55 51.89%
 
No 51 48.11%
 
Total:106

Not 100% sure....It probably will, but I voted no. It felt right.



- "If you have the heart of a true winner, you can always get more pissed off than some other asshole."

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tripenfall said:

Xbox One is currently tracking at about 42-43 million ltd and only sold 54k units last week. I still don't think that it passing the SNES is a given, especially if Microsoft unveil new hardware at E3 as they are rumored to do.... 

If Halo Infinite comes out strong, you can bet there will be a sales boost. Not including Gears 5, Battletoads, Ori 2 and whatever else they have on the horizon due this year. 



Shadow1980 said:
I think it will, but probably not by much. Assuming the XBO is down 30% YoY, that should put it at no more than 5M for this year, which would put it at ~46M by the end of the year. Assuming a 50% decline next year (because of the launch of the Xbox 4), then that will put it at ~49M, right on par the SNES. Assuming another 50% drop-off in 2021 and again in 2022 with a 2023 discontinuation, then it will likely end up at around 51-52M lifetime.

Looking at it regionally, according to NPD the SNES sold 20M units while the XBO is sitting at 25.1M as of April of this year. VGC has European sales of the SNES at 8.15M while the XBO is currently at 11.52M. Meanwhile, in Japan the SNES sold over 17M units while the XBO has barely broken the 100k mark. So, the west will be entirely responsible for the XBO beating the SNES globally, assuming it does so at all.

I think that's a sound appraisal of the situation. 

I'm curious to see what Microsoft do at E3 in a week's time. If they announce a "nextbox" that has a budget SKU that is coming in 2019 then it's fair to say Xbox One sales will stall. This will be especially true if their upcoming games are also on PC day and date. It sounds stupid to announce something that early to cannibalize your own sales but don't forget this is the company who announced the Xbox One X about 18 months before release.

One thing is for sure, Microsoft can't wait for the next gen to start. Their most successful console The Xbox 360 was released a full year before the competition, does Microsoft think going early again will achieve the same results? 



Yes, but only by a little.



This also depends a lot on whether MS is sticking to that stuff they said about the end of generations. since they stopped talking about that a couple of years ago, I'm guessing they've changed their mind. But, if they say that the next gen consoles are basically just Xbox One X 2, and the games for the next several years will be playable on a regular Xbox One, or even Xbox one x, I would say that the Xbox One will handily pass the SNES. But, if they announce next week that they're making a clean start on a new generation before the end of 2020, it's going to be a lot harder to sell another 8mm X1s.



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I'm skeptical right now. It certainly seems possible; however, I am also anticipating the announcement/reveal of the NextBox this year, and if that happens, I expect it would slow down Xbone sales significantly, which would certainly hinder its ability to make that milestone.

Additionally, there's also the question of whether the SNES Classic should count towards SNES numbers. On one hand, it's very different hardware, but on the other hand, it is very specifically SNES games and nothing outside of SNES that is driving those sales. If it WERE counted, that would push SNES numbers up to around 55m and I would say it's definitively certain Xbone won't outsell that.



 SW-5120-1900-6153

Shadow1980 said:
I think it will, but probably not by much. Assuming the XBO is down 30% YoY, that should put it at no more than 5M for this year, which would put it at ~46M by the end of the year. Assuming a 50% decline next year (because of the launch of the Xbox 4), then that will put it at ~49M, right on par the SNES. Assuming another 50% drop-off in 2021 and again in 2022 with a 2023 discontinuation, then it will likely end up at around 51-52M lifetime.

Looking at it regionally, according to NPD the SNES sold 20M units while the XBO is sitting at 25.1M as of April of this year. VGC has European sales of the SNES at 8.15M while the XBO is currently at 11.52M. Meanwhile, in Japan the SNES sold over 17M units while the XBO has barely broken the 100k mark. So, the west will be entirely responsible for the XBO beating the SNES globally, assuming it does so at all.

That all depends from not dropping harder, but I get behind the reasoning.

I do expect XBO to drop faster, especially if it's successor will already be announced at this E3, which should ruin this year's sales already.



thetonestarr said:
Additionally, there's also the question of whether the SNES Classic should count towards SNES numbers. On one hand, it's very different hardware, but on the other hand, it is very specifically SNES games and nothing outside of SNES that is driving those sales. If it WERE counted, that would push SNES numbers up to around 55m and I would say it's definitively certain Xbone won't outsell that.

It's not a question. It's dumb to retroactively add numbers to discontinued systems when a classic/flashback is released years later. Otherwise we could say the Sega Genesis outsold the N64 due to all those Sega Megadrive/Genesis tv consoles, that's just changing history.



Barkley said:
thetonestarr said:
Additionally, there's also the question of whether the SNES Classic should count towards SNES numbers. On one hand, it's very different hardware, but on the other hand, it is very specifically SNES games and nothing outside of SNES that is driving those sales. If it WERE counted, that would push SNES numbers up to around 55m and I would say it's definitively certain Xbone won't outsell that.

It's not a question. It's dumb to retroactively add numbers to discontinued systems when a classic/flashback is released years later. Otherwise we could say the Sega Genesis outsold the N64 due to all those Sega Megadrive/Genesis tv consoles, that's just changing history.

It comes down to whether those were official console releases or not. Why wouldn't you count an official console released by Nintendo with the SNES moniker, that is designed strictly to play only existing SNES games? Companies bring discontinued products back all the time, and companies make revisions to products for re-releases all the time. Why should this be considered any differently?



 SW-5120-1900-6153

thetonestarr said:
Barkley said:

It's not a question. It's dumb to retroactively add numbers to discontinued systems when a classic/flashback is released years later. Otherwise we could say the Sega Genesis outsold the N64 due to all those Sega Megadrive/Genesis tv consoles, that's just changing history.

It comes down to whether those were official console releases or not. Why wouldn't you count an official console released by Nintendo with the SNES moniker, that is designed strictly to play only existing SNES games? Companies bring discontinued products back all the time, and companies make revisions to products for re-releases all the time. Why should this be considered any differently?

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/- Nintendo say no.