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Forums - Sales Discussion - Black Friday NPD 2018

quickrick said:

I see no reason for nintendo to lie about the 8.2 million number in a very detailed article via business wire, switch will end  up 800-950k for november book it.

So you think PS4 sold above 1,700,000 - 1,850,000. Interesting choice. 



 

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Acevil said:
quickrick said:

I see no reason for nintendo to lie about the 8.2 million number in a very detailed article via business wire, switch will end  up 800-950k for november book it.

So you think PS4 sold above 1,700,000 - 1,850,000. Interesting choice. 

well reasons i think that are 199$ bundle lasted much longer then last year, and spiderman is huge, so why not? 



quickrick said:
Acevil said:

So you think PS4 sold above 1,700,000 - 1,850,000. Interesting choice. 

well reasons i think that are 199$ bundle lasted much longer then last year, and spiderman is huge, so why not? 

Not questioning the limited availability of it? Hey if you are right that it sells close to 2 million I will give you your dues. I am still going to call you are pessimistic nature of going super against Nintendo, but I will give you your dues. 



 

Acevil said:
quickrick said:

I see no reason for nintendo to lie about the 8.2 million number in a very detailed article via business wire, switch will end  up 800-950k for november book it.

So you think PS4 sold above 1,700,000 - 1,850,000. Interesting choice. 

I also used to think so... now I a leaning more towards 1.4M - 1.6M

quickrick said:
Acevil said:

So you think PS4 sold above 1,700,000 - 1,850,000. Interesting choice. 

well reasons i think that are 199$ bundle lasted much longer then last year, and spiderman is huge, so why not? 

That could have just been due to better rationing on the stores part making sure they had enough stock available through out the season. 

Sony could have sent out only exactly 1M of that spiderman bundle or less. My guess is 1M. The vanilla console with its own deals would have made up the rest of the sales for the month. And i don't see that being 800k worth of sales either side of that spiderman bundle. 



quickrick said:
CGI-Quality said:

He then said:

"Shouldn't be that surprising PS4 is facing shortages and they didnt have very good deals for CM frankly. Should still take the month though I think"

Regardless, his word isn't the end all, be all anyway. Best to wait for all data to arrive.

I still question the guy's data, he apparently  so much data, yet he told us last year, switch has a chance to be # 1, and ended getting out sold by nearly a million. if you have so much data you should have been 100% sure switch didn't have a chance in hell imo of course.

 

It was also weird when he recently said he didn't have access to Cyber Monday data.  Like how does that work, is data just given to him on a daily basis?  Then after a few Cyber Monday reports came out he then was able to dig some data up.  Another weird thing was when he said October data was weird and h e couldnt tell who won before NPD.  

 

Don't know if he is legit or not but nothing he says is very specific or proof he has some type of insider data.  



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Too bad Sony didnt have the bandwidth to keep that $200 spiderman bundle in stock, would have been HUGE #'s.



gtjay1982 said:
quickrick said:

I still question the guy's data, he apparently  so much data, yet he told us last year, switch has a chance to be # 1, and ended getting out sold by nearly a million. if you have so much data you should have been 100% sure switch didn't have a chance in hell imo of course.

 

It was also weird when he recently said he didn't have access to Cyber Monday data.  Like how does that work, is data just given to him on a daily basis?  Then after a few Cyber Monday reports came out he then was able to dig some data up.  Another weird thing was when he said October data was weird and h e couldnt tell who won before NPD.  

 

Don't know if he is legit or not but nothing he says is very specific or proof he has some type of insider data.  

yea i feel the same way he covers all his angles, and is protected by resetera like a god. ps4 won by april, by nearly 100% irrc yet he never mentioned ps4 taking the month easily, october was also huge win by around 30% yet not mention who wins or ps4 taking the month easily, a lot of things he does don't add up, hopefully these numbers are true and people realize he's probably not legit. I understand when things are close his data not getting things right, but when there is a huge lead his data should show other wise his data is useless.



quickrick said:

I see no reason for nintendo to lie about the 8.2 million number in a very detailed article via business wire, switch will end  up 800-950k for november book it.

Hardly they would lied, but it wouldn't be first time their PR is not most accurate.

What is very possible is that with "more than 8.2m" numbers gave us numbers until October with this "5 day period sales", so without other November numbers. And that would actually make sense, because it expected that Switch in that period sold around 800-900k (because thats more than Wii best week and perfectly fit with those "more than 8.2m" sold units).

 

Also, this one of latests Benji posts:

-I think estimating anywhere from 1.1 million - 1.5 million for Switch in November is realistic. I know that's a big range but given the PR (outside the weird LTD figure) it seem highly unlikely it's either below or above that figure

 -Considering we have Switch doing a confirmed over 800k on BF week alone, yeah. Switch and PS4 are going to be very close come NPD in November. And likely unless Sony have something big planned for December Switch may end up the best selling hardware for the Year


Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

I see no reason for nintendo to lie about the 8.2 million number in a very detailed article via business wire, switch will end  up 800-950k for november book it.

Hardly they would lied, but it wouldn't be first time their PR is not most accurate.

What is very possible is that with "more than 8.2m" numbers gave us numbers until October with this "5 day period sales", so without other November numbers. And that would actually make sense, because it expected that Switch in that period sold around 800-900k (because thats more than Wii best week and perfectly fit with those "more than 8.2m" sold units).

 

Also, this one of latests Benji posts:

-I think estimating anywhere from 1.1 million - 1.5 million for Switch in November is realistic. I know that's a big range but given the PR (outside the weird LTD figure) it seem highly unlikely it's either below or above that figure

 -Considering we have Switch doing a confirmed over 800k on BF week alone, yeah. Switch and PS4 are going to be very close come NPD in November. And likely unless Sony have something big planned for December Switch may end up the best selling hardware for the Year

LTD on US sales from nintendo  hasn't been wrong in over a decade last years article  gave us accurate NPD figures before they came out.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180104005222/en/Nintendo-Switch-Fastest-Selling-Home-Video-Game-System 

I'm looking forward to NPD which will reflect these numbers posted by nintendo. don't really care for benji, after this hopefully everyone see's that he's not legit.



OK the suggestion that PS4 is down - is that YOY or November ?

Wasn't it already tracking below last year.. and if so what was the difference between them before November. It's possible that if YOY it was down a couple hundred thousand that it could still beat last Novembers numbers... just trying to get a grasp of it.

As for Switch I don't see it being as close as benji suggests. I find that he usually speaks after someone else has already said something and uses his limited data and anecdotal evidence. But still good to get some info.



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