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Forums - Sales Discussion - Black Friday NPD 2018

thismeintiel on 28 November 2018
quickrick said:
thismeintiel said:

According to Nintendo's PR its done ~900K up til CM, so 800K is off the table. Your top end is definitely a possibility, though. I'd say its on the low end. My guess is ~1M-1.1M.

I do agree with you on the PS4. I would think Sony would have put out more stock than last year, given they must be much cheaper to manufacture this year. Though, I guess Sony may have released a PR statement about it being up YOY. We'll have to see when NPD releases. It should still easily take #1.

Switch was at 7.38 million based on previous data we had.

They did say more than, though.  That could be anywhere from 8.21M-8.26M.  I'd imagine if it was 8.27M or higher, they would have said they were nearing 8.3M.  So ~900K.



 

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Intrinsic on 28 November 2018

Shucks..... means I overshot my switch prediction. I had them to do 1.3M.

My guess is that the PS4 is sightly down YOY and sitting at around 1.5M. Hence the radio silence.



quickrick on 28 November 2018
thismeintiel said:
quickrick said:

Switch was at 7.38 million based on previous data we had.

They did say more than, though.  That could be anywhere from 8.21M-8.26M.  I'd imagine if it was 8.27M or higher, they would have said they were nearing 8.3M.  So ~900K.

it could anywhere from 8.1-8.99 actually.  last year  they announced 4.8 million ltd, and NPD data showed it was at 4.88. My prediction was based off not having cyber monday included like last year.



thismeintiel on 28 November 2018

I also want to clear up something about the 5 day vs BF week. There's a reason Nintendo used that period. It allowed the Switch to beat the Wii. My guess is that if they used the BF week, Wii would have won. You have to remember that Wii was a hot item in 2008. It was leaving the shelves almost as soon as it was put up. And for that BF Nintendo offered no deals on the system. It's not hard to imagine quite a few of its sales came from the Mon-Thu period, as there was no reason to wait til Black Friday, which at the time happened in the early hours of Fri morning, not Thu night, like now. Cyber Monday was also a MUCH smaller event than what it is today.



 

Intrinsic on 28 November 2018
thismeintiel said:
I also want to clear up something about the 5 day vs BF week. There's a reason Nintendo used that period. It allowed the Switch to beat the Wii. My guess is that if they used the BF week, Wii would have won. You have to remember that Wii was a hot item in 2008. It was leaving the shelves almost as soon as it was put up. And for that BF Nintendo offered no deals on the system. It's not hard to imagine quite a few of its sales came from the Mon-Thu period, as there was no reason to wait til Black Friday, which at the time happened in the early hours of Fri morning, not Thu night, like now. Cyber Monday was also a MUCH smaller event than what it is today.

Exactly.......

As I said, good PR.

First lesson of PR..... whenever you hear percentage and get any kinda weird  information (5 days frm thursday to monday).

Thats spin.



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Miyamotoo on 29 November 2018
Intrinsic said:
Shucks..... means I overshot my switch prediction. I had them to do 1.3M.

My guess is that the PS4 is sightly down YOY and sitting at around 1.5M. Hence the radio silence.

If I am on your place I would keep to that predicted, everything point that Switch has much stronger month compared to last year in any case.



manuelogando40 on 29 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

switch was at 7.38 million in the US before November so 8.2 million seems real weak if the numbers are correct. 

Week numbers for 5 days period? You do realise they said it sold 115% better than in same period of last year!? That's massive increase in any case. All points you loosing your bet, not wining.

Why are you trying to speak with fanboys? 

Don't you know they believe earth turns around playstation??  Actually playstation can cure cancer.



"Every day I look in the mirror and ask myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?". If the answer is no for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something"

Steve Jobs

Madword on 29 November 2018

I think Switch did 1.1 million
Xbox probably did 1.3
PS4 1.5 - 1.6



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Jaxyfoo on 29 November 2018

If I said I hope all 3 do over 2 million, I would have 3 groups waiting to whack me with baseball bats not pat me on the back and hope I am right for the love of an healthy gaming hobby full of great games.

What a truly crazy world we are turning into, no wonder none gamers look down on us more and more.



Intrinsic on 29 November 2018
Madword said:
I think Switch did 1.1 million
Xbox probably did 1.3
PS4 1.5 - 1.6

What reason in the world is there for the XB1 to have done 1.3M. 

Actually scratch that, to have sole more than the switch?

The switch has won the XB1 pretty much every month so far in NA and then all of a sudden it would now lose in november? Is it that you forget that last year november the XB1X just launched?

If MS even manages 1M I would consider that a serious achievement on their part.