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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will "next generation" have a mid-upgrade like PRO and X?

People are getting ahead of themselves.

We haven't seen if the mid-gen upgrades have had any effect on next-gen uptake yet.

If MS rebrands the X as XB2 with backwards and forwards compatibility, does it still count as next gen?



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

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Intrinsic said:
It depends on chip fabrication.

It took 4yrs to go from 65nm to 28nm fabrication. And 6yrs to go from 2nm to 14nm. And about 4yrs to go from 14nm to 7nm (assuming there are no surprises).

And these node shrinks are getting harder and harder with each passing shrink (just ask intel).

The Pro and X models are a by product of such a node shrink. If in 3-4 years after the new consoles are released we have a shrink from 7nm to say 4nm then it will be possible for them to make consoles about twice as powerful for around whatever it cost them when the consoles launched.

If it takes 7yrs for that node shrink to come? then that will be PS6 we are talking about.

In the Xbox One X's case it was also a product of ditching the ESRAM which took up a massive percentage of the chips transistor budget.
Xbox One @ 28nm was 363mm2.
Xbox One S dropped that to 240mm2 @ 16nm.
Xbox One X brought it back up to 359mm2 @ 16nm.

Keep in mind that 16nm is derived from a 20nm process, so it's more like a half node shrink from 28nm rather than a full one.
Next Gen will start off with 7nm (Which isn't a true 7nm process, more like 10nm Intel equivalent) and then probably get a half step to 5nm, which should be market ready in just a few years with some luck.

shikamaru317 said:

I don't think we'll see 4nm on AMD CPU's or GPU's, Samsung is the only one who is currently planning to use 4nm afaik. AMD uses Global Foundries for their chipsets and I think that they are planning on doing 5nm first, then 3.5nm (which will be called 3nm for marketing purposes). 5nm risk production is currently scheduled to begin April 2019 at TSMC, and full volume manufacturing usually begins about a year after risk production starts, so by ~Q2-Q3 2020 we should start to see the first 5nm devices assuming that all goes according to schedule. 3nm meanwhile is going to take a bit longer, though Samsung say they currently hope to make a 3nm test chip by 2021, assuming that they succeed, we could see risk production by 2022 or 2023 and full production by 2023 or 2024.  PS5 and Xbox Scarlett will almost assuredly be using 7nm Zen 2 CPU's and 7nm Navi GPU's in a single APU when they release in 2020. So, we could potentially see mid-gen upgrades using 5nm APU's in 2023, or 3nm mid-gen upgrades in 2024 I'd say. I'm not sure if 5nm will be enough to pull off mid-gen upgrades though, TSMC is saying to expect about a 20% increase in frequency at the same complexity and power usage compared to 7nm, I don't know if that will be enough. They can always use bigger, more power hungry chips in the mid-gen upgrades to help compensate, but price and noise is a concern if they do that, so they may wait on 3nm, we'll just have to wait and see.

"nm" is more or less just advertising fluff.
5nm from one company could be roughly equivalent to another company's 7nm, you need to compare the individual geometries to see where things truly stack up to get an accurate representation.

 

Chazore said:
exclusive_console said:
I seriously hope it is not very 3yr refresh like PC gaming. Microsoft has hinted this and I personally hate this idea. Even a decent PC can last 5yrs as they have option of various settings and resolution.

YOu don't need to upgrade every 3 years on PC though.

You only upgrade whenever the hell you feel like it.
There are Radeon 7970 users who still game just fine.

captain carot said:

Right now we're even quite a bit away from 7nm/8nm high performance. Intels 10nm hasn't work as planned so far and minor steps like 12nm bring only minor improvements. Global Foundries even pulled out of 7nm manufacturing.

Or they might start off with "12nm" which is just a refined 14/16nm process.

exclusive_console said:

I know what you mean. But according to some GTX 1070 is not considered high end which IMO is absolutely crazy

It's upper mid-range.
The 1060 is squarely mid-range.
The 1080/1080Ti are high-end.
Titan is Enthusiast.

shikamaru317 said:

They'd better get their move on making quantum computers work, because that 1nm limit will be reached by the late 2020's most likely and chipsets basically won't be able to get any more powerful after that without making them bigger, more power hungry, and more expensive.  

There is actually another way we can go.

It's working for NAND, basically they started producing chips on a larger fabrication process and just went the stacked method.


Last edited by Pemalite - on 30 November 2018

--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

It's pretty much the standard now.



Pemalite said:

In the Xbox One X's case it was also a product of ditching the ESRAM which took up a massive percentage of the chips transistor budget.
Xbox One @ 28nm was 363mm2.
Xbox One S dropped that to 240mm2 @ 16nm.
Xbox One X brought it back up to 359mm2 @ 16nm.

Keep in mind that 16nm is derived from a 20nm process, so it's more like a half node shrink from 28nm rather than a full one.
Next Gen will start off with 7nm (Which isn't a true 7nm process, more like 10nm Intel equivalent) and then probably get a half step to 5nm, which should be market ready in just a few years with some luck.

 

Oh I didn't know that. Always suspected though with the 16nm thing as I would have expected a full shrink of 28nm to be 14nm. 

But now the 7nm thing is totally new to me. Isn't that flat out lying to market a 10nm "half shrink" as a full on 7nm process? 



Yes, if they do it like in this generation I will have no problem with it.



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The next Xbox should be branded in the following format Xbox ꝏ



Intrinsic said:
Pemalite said:

In the Xbox One X's case it was also a product of ditching the ESRAM which took up a massive percentage of the chips transistor budget.
Xbox One @ 28nm was 363mm2.
Xbox One S dropped that to 240mm2 @ 16nm.
Xbox One X brought it back up to 359mm2 @ 16nm.

Keep in mind that 16nm is derived from a 20nm process, so it's more like a half node shrink from 28nm rather than a full one.
Next Gen will start off with 7nm (Which isn't a true 7nm process, more like 10nm Intel equivalent) and then probably get a half step to 5nm, which should be market ready in just a few years with some luck.

 

Oh I didn't know that. Always suspected though with the 16nm thing as I would have expected a full shrink of 28nm to be 14nm. 

But now the 7nm thing is totally new to me. Isn't that flat out lying to market a 10nm "half shrink" as a full on 7nm process? 

For years companies have been fluffing up their fab shrinks, they do it for various reasons.
Intels 14nm process for instance is vastly superior to the 14nm from Samsung/Global Foundries... Yet many people think they are somehow directly comparable.
To be fair, even Intel's "nm" naming scheme has deviated somewhat from the normal naming conventions, it's just less extreme than other foundries.

5nm though from TSMC/Samsung/Global Foundries (If they decide to go for it again) should actually be closer to 7nm.

So we still have a long time before electromigration/quantum tunneling becomes a real issue... And I think before we hit that wall we might go backwards for awhile... And start building chips on larger nodes and just stack chips before shrinking again, worked for NAND.

AMD at the moment though is taking the option of building multiple smaller chips (which assists with yields) and throwing everything that doesn't scale down in nm very well onto an older, cheaper process, not everything needs to be on 7nm, but they can only take that so far as well.



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