What kind of deals do you expect for December? Last year had $50 off for both models for a week each.

I think it will be similar, but slightly better. Maybe the games included will be better. I think the marketing/ads will be better as well. Not to mention that Spiderman+ PS4 is more December centric than whatever Sony had last year. Lets do an October-December PS4 history to try to explain some of my logic. I will list 2013, but largely ignore it due to launch.

2013:

Nov: 1.14

Dec: .86

2014: 2.20

Oct: .300 (13.6%)

Nov: .83 (37.7%)

Dec: 1.07 (48.6%)

2015: 3.40

Oct: .280 (8.2%)

Nov: 1.54 (45.3%)

Dec: 1.58 (46.5%)

2016: 2.905

Oct: .235 (8.1%)

Nov: 1.1  (37.9%)

Dec: 1.57 (54.0%)

2017: 2.865

Oct: .205? (7.1%)

Nov: 1.58 (55.1%)

Dec: 1.08 (37.7%)

2018: 3.04m prediction

Oct: .340 (11%)

Nov: 1.4m prediction

Dec: 1.3m prediction

So from this info, PS4 2018 holiday season should sell around 2.9m or more since its been up YoY. That leaves 2.56m to be distributed and I predicted 2.7m to be optimistic. October is generally 7-8% of the holiday season, but this October was particularly strong so I predict it is 11%.

November and December split is indeed harder. While the PS4 usually has a stronger December than November, last year put a wrench in that. I think the proportions will become closer this year though, with the slight edge to November.

I had forgotten that Dec was so much higher than Nov in 2016, I was thinking it was an ongoing trend that Dec has been losing sales to Nov for a few years but I guess not.

With new informations from Resetera, saying that PS4 will probably do similar numbers like last year, I changed my predictions:

Nov
PS4- 1.6 million
NSW- 1.25 million
XBO- 1.05 million

Dec
PS4- 1.15 million
NSW- 2 million
XBO- 1.05 million

YTD
PS4- 5.75 million
NSW- 5.75 million
XBO- 4.2 million

Edit

Nov
PS4- 1.7m
NSW- 1.5M
XBO- 1.3M
Dec
NSW- 1.5m
XBO- 1.4m
PS4- 1.1m
YTD
PS4- 5.8m
NSW- 5.5m
XBO- 4.8m

Switch will be up ~100% YoY in Nov but flat in Dec?

The Pokemon and Smash bundles are sold out and are not getting restocked for December according to some Era insiders.

November:

PS4 - 1.6-1.8 million
Switch - 1 million - 1.1 Million
XBO - 1million - 1.2 million

December

PS4 - 1.4 million
Switch - 1.8 million - 2 million
XBO - 1 million

Year total prediction.

PS4: 5.9M
NSW: 5.3M
XB1: 4.6M

I feel the PS4 will be up this year for November and december. But not as much as it could have been if there as more of that spiderman bundle. So i have it for around 1.8M in nov, Up YOY but only by around 13%. 

Which may seem bad when compared the the switch that may be up by as much as 50% in nov taking it to around 1.3M.

I believe that even though stock of the $199 PS4 was limited, there are a lot of other games this year that would push for all round better sales that were not there last year. RDR2, Spiderman, GOW, CODBO4 will al have sight tack on effects on sales.