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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 46 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - November 12-18, 2018

RolStoppable said:
Megiddo said: 

Oh I completely agree. Math, logic, and reason will still be the backbone for my analysis. It's just before I could just say "I'm only a PC gamer", and I don't like lying, as it's much easier to state the truth.

That's the core of the problem. You think that's what you do, but since your conclusions can be so far off the mark and have a pattern of being too favorable for PlayStation and too unfavorable for Nintendo, you face accusations of bias. Whether or not you own a PS console doesn't make a difference. Going forward, I do not expect you to do any worse than "I predict 2.8m PS4s sold in Japan in 2018."

And my Switch prediction was 3.6 million. Which seems quite close I think.

PS4 did not receive a price-cut as I thought it would. Kingdom Hearts was not released in 2018 as I thought it would be. Granblue Fantasy was not released in 2018 as I thought it would be. My prediction was based on those things happening. They didn't.



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For reference, switch y1 V y2 Japan.



RolStoppable said:
Megiddo said:

And my Switch prediction was 3.6 million. Which seems quite close I think.

PS4 did not receive a price-cut as I thought it would. Kingdom Hearts was not released in 2018 as I thought it would be. Granblue Fantasy was not released in 2018 as I thought it would be. My prediction was based on those things happening. They didn't.

Since you snipped the most important part of my post, I suppose you will stick to your guns. So it's likely that you are going to predict the PS4 to sell 2.5m in 2019 because price cut is overdue and KH3 and Granblue Fantasy are expected to release in that year.

No, because that won't have Monster Hunter World launching.

With the Switch, my prediction is fairly sane right now because everything I thought would happen with it happened. The logic and reason that I devised to make that prediction came through. With PS4, my prediction is fairly insane right now because everything I thought would happen didn't happen. The logic and reason that I devised to make that prediction did not come through.

I expected a full half year of sales of the PS4 at the yen equivalent of $249. It never happened. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8752221



JSG87 said:


For reference, switch y1 V y2 Japan.

Thank you for this graph!
On first glance, they look like they're about even YoY.
The difference being 2017 was all over the place with its baseline because Nintendo spent most of the year trying to catch up with demand, whereas 2018 is more balanced.



RolStoppable said:
Megiddo said:

No, because that won't have Monster Hunter World launching.

With the Switch, my prediction is fairly sane right now because everything I thought would happen with it happened. The logic and reason that I devised to make that prediction came through. With PS4, my prediction is fairly insane right now because everything I thought would happen didn't happen. The logic and reason that I devised to make that prediction did not come through.

I expected a full half year of sales of the PS4 at the yen equivalent of $249. It never happened. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8752221

Your Switch prediction wasn't far off the norm to begin with, because 3.8-4.0m was about where the consensus was. Everything between 3.5-4.0m remains realistic for Switch at this point.

Your PS4 prediction was an outlier though. Your weekly tracking uses 4m as Switch's target and 2m as the PS4's target, so you know that your PS4 prediction was significantly above the consensus.

2.8m wouldn't have happened even if all events you expected had happened. Shadow1980 has repeatedly shown graphs of sales curves and how price cuts in the latter half of a system's life have affected sales; a large uptick has never happened, but you predicted a ~50% gain year over year for the PS4. The reason why it doesn't happen is that at that stage of a console's lifecycle the price merely goes from fine to cheaper, so the result of such a price cut is extended stability of an already established baseline. A full half of a year at 25k yen would have added - if we are generous - an average of 10k units per week. That would have made 2m for the year feasible, but that's about it.

Can you source your data for your findings as to what the average gain of the PS4 would be if it had been 25k yen? Very interested in looking it over. For instance, I know that the PS3 was quicker to get from 7 million to 8 million than it was to go from both 6 million to 7 million and 5 million to 6 million. I had assumed that to be due to a price change, but I could be wrong.

Last edited by Megiddo - on 21 November 2018

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Almost has it’s mouth closed.



Fallout had a decent opening. Probably around 100k with digital. Black ops legs and spidermans continue to be very impressive. Ps4 Pro still talking up about half of the sales.



Mnementh said:
PwerlvlAmy said:
Great Pokemon sales and amazing Switch HW. Nothing really else to say about this week thats noteworthy. Just domination overall

Well, I think it is noteworthy that RDR2 drops fast, while COD keeps staying strong. Why suddenly the japanese are COD-fans?

Maybe splatoon and Fortnite helped Japanese gamers like other shooting games? 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

polofresco said:
polofresco said:
200k Switch.... 4 times what's sold last week..

Pokemon is a sales monster! really impressive

In Spain sold 64.000 units. Best Switch game launch ever in that country.

https://vandal.elespanol.com/noticia/1350715793/pokemon-lets-go-es-el-mejor-lanzamiento-que-switch-ha-tenido-en-espana/

That is Crazy!



Pocky Lover Boy! 

So much for any doubts or denial that Let's Go would be a system seller.