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5 years of PS4 - let's celebrate

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VAMatt said:
Keiji said:

Definitly better than 120 million total sold. I would say 138 million.

Its not likely to exceed 120mm if PS5 comes in 2020, as many suspect.  

It makes no sense. PS2 was still selling big when PS3 came around.



Favorite games of the generation : Detroit Become Human, The Last Of Us Remastered, Metal Gear Solid V The Definitive Experience, God Of War, GTA V.

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Keiji said:
VAMatt said:

Its not likely to exceed 120mm if PS5 comes in 2020, as many suspect.  

It makes no sense. PS2 was still selling big when PS3 came around.

Well, after reviewing the math, I'd say it looks like 120mm is a realistic LT number.  I think the upper bound is about 125, if PS5 launches in 2020.  



VAMatt said:
Keiji said:

It makes no sense. PS2 was still selling big when PS3 came around.

Well, after reviewing the math, I'd say it looks like 120mm is a realistic LT number.  I think the upper bound is about 125, if PS5 launches in 2020.  

So you think sales will go down very fast once PS5 arrives ? What make you think that ?



Favorite games of the generation : Detroit Become Human, The Last Of Us Remastered, Metal Gear Solid V The Definitive Experience, God Of War, GTA V.

VAMatt said:
Keiji said:

Definitly better than 120 million total sold. I would say 138 million.

Its not likely to exceed 120mm if PS5 comes in 2020, as many suspect.  

Why?

PS4 is on track to pass 100M by end of sept/oct 2019, and even if PS5 will be out worldwide by Nov 2020, PS4 will keep selling in 2020 and 2021 too. Sony is still holding a price cut, so it's highly probable if not sure that PS4 will pass 120M by the end of its life cycle.  Now, if the price cut will happen in Sept 2019, and with all the AAA titles supposed to be released in 2019, you can place a bet with everybody that PS4 will be able to sell 7-8M from end of Sept to end of 2019, which means 107-108M PS4 sold by end of 2019. So, you are telling me that PS4 in 2020-2021 and maybe part of 2022 will sell less than (120M-107/108M)=12-13M ?  you can't be serious. Even if my estimate is off by 30% regarding the Global by end of 2019, PS4 is still on target to easily pass 120M.  



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

Nate4Drake said:
VAMatt said:

Its not likely to exceed 120mm if PS5 comes in 2020, as many suspect.  

Why?

PS4 is on track to pass 100M by end of sept/oct 2019, and even if PS5 will be out worldwide by Nov 2020, PS4 will keep selling in 2020 and 2021 too. Sony is still holding a price cut, so it's highly probable if not sure that PS4 will pass 120M by the end of its life cycle.  Now, if the price cut will happen in Sept 2019, and with all the AAA titles supposed to be released in 2019, you can place a bet with everybody that PS4 will be able to sell 7-8M from end of Sept to end of 2019, which means 107-108M PS4 sold by end of 2019. So, you are telling me that PS4 in 2020-2021 and maybe part of 2022 will sell less than (120M-107/108M)=12-13M ?  you can't be serious. Even if my estimate is off by 30% regarding the Global by end of 2019, PS4 is still on target to easily pass 120M.  

So well said.



Favorite games of the generation : Detroit Become Human, The Last Of Us Remastered, Metal Gear Solid V The Definitive Experience, God Of War, GTA V.

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Nate4Drake said:
VAMatt said:

Its not likely to exceed 120mm if PS5 comes in 2020, as many suspect.  

Why?

PS4 is on track to pass 100M by end of sept/oct 2019, and even if PS5 will be out worldwide by Nov 2020, PS4 will keep selling in 2020 and 2021 too. Sony is still holding a price cut, so it's highly probable if not sure that PS4 will pass 120M by the end of its life cycle.  Now, if the price cut will happen in Sept 2019, and with all the AAA titles supposed to be released in 2019, you can place a bet with everybody that PS4 will be able to sell 7-8M from end of Sept to end of 2019, which means 107-108M PS4 sold by end of 2019. So, you are telling me that PS4 in 2020-2021 and maybe part of 2022 will sell less than (120M-107/108M)=12-13M ?  you can't be serious. Even if my estimate is off by 30% regarding the Global by end of 2019, PS4 is still on target to easily pass 120M.  

Yeah, I already granted that 120 million is realistic.  

With that said, I do think that 120 million is pretty close to the correct lifetime total.  Sales will begin declining noticably next year, almost certainly. A price cut will help, of course. As will any new big games. But, big games six years into a generation don't move consoles like they do early in the generation.  Most of the buyers of those games already have a PS4.  

We do have a bit of an unknown factor this generation that we haven't had in the past. That's the mid generation upgrades. Certainly many people have, and will continue to upgrade from regular PS4 to a Pro.  I tend to think that that number will fall off pretty quickly though, as the people that would upgrade to a pro are also likely the ones that want to be in early in the next generation. So, presumably they would not buy a Pro if they expect a PS5 the next year. Nevertheless, the existence of the pro probably does help the lifetime sales numbers of the PS4.

This all of course assumes that PS5 is coming in 2020. If it doesn't come until 2021, the number will certainly be substantially higher.



VAMatt said:
Nate4Drake said:

Why?

PS4 is on track to pass 100M by end of sept/oct 2019, and even if PS5 will be out worldwide by Nov 2020, PS4 will keep selling in 2020 and 2021 too. Sony is still holding a price cut, so it's highly probable if not sure that PS4 will pass 120M by the end of its life cycle.  Now, if the price cut will happen in Sept 2019, and with all the AAA titles supposed to be released in 2019, you can place a bet with everybody that PS4 will be able to sell 7-8M from end of Sept to end of 2019, which means 107-108M PS4 sold by end of 2019. So, you are telling me that PS4 in 2020-2021 and maybe part of 2022 will sell less than (120M-107/108M)=12-13M ?  you can't be serious. Even if my estimate is off by 30% regarding the Global by end of 2019, PS4 is still on target to easily pass 120M.  

Yeah, I already granted that 120 million is realistic.  

With that said, I do think that 120 million is pretty close to the correct lifetime total.  Sales will begin declining noticably next year, almost certainly. A price cut will help, of course. As will any new big games. But, big games six years into a generation don't move consoles like they do early in the generation.  Most of the buyers of those games already have a PS4.  

We do have a bit of an unknown factor this generation that we haven't had in the past. That's the mid generation upgrades. Certainly many people have, and will continue to upgrade from regular PS4 to a Pro.  I tend to think that that number will fall off pretty quickly though, as the people that would upgrade to a pro are also likely the ones that want to be in early in the next generation. So, presumably they would not buy a Pro if they expect a PS5 the next year. Nevertheless, the existence of the pro probably does help the lifetime sales numbers of the PS4.

This all of course assumes that PS5 is coming in 2020. If it doesn't come until 2021, the number will certainly be substantially higher.

Friendly bet ? I say 140M total Lifetime.



Favorite games of the generation : Detroit Become Human, The Last Of Us Remastered, Metal Gear Solid V The Definitive Experience, God Of War, GTA V.

I'll go ahead and guess publicly - total lifetime sales of the PS4 at 123 million units, assuming the PS5 comes in 2020, and assuming that it is clearly a new generation, not another upgrade,or that PS4 is forward compatible, or the like.

Keiji said:
VAMatt said:

Yeah, I already granted that 120 million is realistic.  

With that said, I do think that 120 million is pretty close to the correct lifetime total.  Sales will begin declining noticably next year, almost certainly. A price cut will help, of course. As will any new big games. But, big games six years into a generation don't move consoles like they do early in the generation.  Most of the buyers of those games already have a PS4.  

We do have a bit of an unknown factor this generation that we haven't had in the past. That's the mid generation upgrades. Certainly many people have, and will continue to upgrade from regular PS4 to a Pro.  I tend to think that that number will fall off pretty quickly though, as the people that would upgrade to a pro are also likely the ones that want to be in early in the next generation. So, presumably they would not buy a Pro if they expect a PS5 the next year. Nevertheless, the existence of the pro probably does help the lifetime sales numbers of the PS4.

This all of course assumes that PS5 is coming in 2020. If it doesn't come until 2021, the number will certainly be substantially higher.

Friendly bet ? I say 140M total Lifetime.

So, we set the over-under at 131.5 million?  That's halfway in between our predictions.  



VAMatt said:
Keiji said:

Friendly bet ? I say 140M total Lifetime.

So, we set the over-under at 131.5 million?  That's halfway in between our predictions.  

That's actually could be it !



Favorite games of the generation : Detroit Become Human, The Last Of Us Remastered, Metal Gear Solid V The Definitive Experience, God Of War, GTA V.