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ULTIMATE BOLD Prediction [2018] Super Smash Bros Will Sell 15mil WW... In under a MONTH!

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15 mil LTD

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I'd only say 15m shipped is possible if Smash Ultimate gets the #1 spot in the U.S. Amazon yearly chart for video games (it's at #5 right now).

Is this game really THAT big in the US?

If I were to gauge interest in it in my corner of the world - I'd put at a little south of where Pokemon Pikachu and Pokemon Eevee are right now and most non-Switch owners are still more interested in Mario Kart and Zelda than Smash Bros.

I'm probably wrong, I like to be surprised (especially when it is to the benefit of Nintendo). But it feels like other Internet-forum-community Nintendo fans are making Smash out to be a much bigger game than it actually is. To me, this one kind of misses the oomph that Brawl had (and that was the biggest one both critically and commercially, despite the lies that Gamecube crusaders try to tell). And if I am wrong, you can chalk me up on the list of people you get to say "I TOLD YA SO!!!!" to =D

Last edited by Jumpin - on 15 November 2018

SMO launched on October. It had the launch, November, BF, and all December to get to 9M.
Also, it got all the attention, since no other big game was released on holidays.
If smash was released earlier, maybe it would got these 15M, but in 24 days, no way.


Barkley said:
RolStoppable said:
Super Mario Odyssey did 9.07m when Switch was at 14.86m.

SSBU will likely beat SMO because Switch will have already exceeded 30m, but 15m in one month sounds like the result of an ecstasy trip. What kind of regional breakdown for sell-through do you have in mind, tbone? 3m for Japan, 4m for the USA, 3m for Europe, 1m for the rest? That's 11m and a lot of loaded retailers to make that 15m shipped.

I am expecting a breakdown in the area of 2.5m for Japan, 3.5m for the USA, 2m for Europe and 500k for the rest, so 8.5m sell-through and shipments between 10-12m, but more likely above 11m than below 11m.

Super Mario Odyssey did 9.07m in 64 days though, smash only has 24 days this quarter. So it wouldn't be beating Odyssey, it would be completely destroying it, and probably every exclusive ever released on any system.

Pokémon Sun & Moon shipped 10m units in its launch week and probably close to 15m in its launch quarter.

There's nothing farfetched about SSBU destroying SMO in a time-adjusted comparison like you made. It should be a given.

I hope the 7.5m figure you posted earlier is a sell-through prediction, because otherwise tbone is definitely not the craziest person in this thread.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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RolStoppable said:
Barkley said:

Super Mario Odyssey did 9.07m in 64 days though, smash only has 24 days this quarter. So it wouldn't be beating Odyssey, it would be completely destroying it, and probably every exclusive ever released on any system.

Pokémon Sun & Moon shipped 10m units in its launch week and probably close to 15m in its launch quarter.

There's nothing farfetched about SSBU destroying SMO in a time-adjusted comparison like you made. It should be a given.

I hope the 7.5m figure you posted earlier is a sell-through prediction, because otherwise tbone is definitely not the craziest person in this thread.

Damn, you haven't read this thread if you think 7.5m is the lowest!

I may have under estimated how much more they ship than sell-through as I am expecting 6.5-7m sell-through.

 

Actually it's mainly the other thread with the lower predictions, melbye 6m, Jason 6.5m etc 



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Barkley said:

Damn, you haven't read this thread if you think 7.5m is the lowest!

I may have under estimated how much more they ship than sell-through as I am expecting 6.5-7m sell-through.

 

Actually it's mainly the other thread with the lower predictions, melbye 6m, Jason 6.5m etc 

I did read the thread, but I had forgotten what others posted. And yes, the other thread also has some low predictions. Yours is rather average and sitting somewhere in the middle, actually.

As for shipping much more than is sold through, last year I pegged Super Mario Odyssey at 7m and thought that couldn't be far off. It came in at 9m. I'd say it's quite easy to get retailers to buy a lot of stock when they can expect that any excess stock won't take long to sell through in case that there is excess stock. The risk of having too few copies and losing customers to other stores is far more significant than stocking more copies than necessary during the launch period.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

jonathanalis said:
SMO launched on October. It had the launch, November, BF, and all December to get to 9M.
Also, it got all the attention, since no other big game was released on holidays.
If smash was released earlier, maybe it would got these 15M, but in 24 days, no way.

Keep in mind, smash will have about double the user base to work with here too



Its not happening.

I'm not sure if it's been brought up but the best selling Smash Bros game is Super Smash Bros Brawl on the Wii at 13 million. What OP is suggesting is that Ultimate will sell 2 million more than that in a month. That isn't going to happen. Nintendo games have high sales due to them selling for a long time (as opposed to most games which sell the most at launch). Could Ultimate get to 15 million. Possibly as Switch games have done very well and the game has a ton of content. But to say it will happen in a month is ridiculous.

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