preorders for the game are really good from what i have seen, but 15 mil in the first month is a bit to optimistic, but 8 - 10 mil could happen

15 million in less than a Month?
If this happens then I will give you my COMG award for the best prediction of 2018

If it actually managed to pull off 15 million in a month, it would certainly go on to sell a fuck-ton more than 25 million lifetime.

Super Mario Odyssey did 9.07m in 64 days though, smash only has 24 days this quarter. So it wouldn't be beating Odyssey, it would be completely destroying it, and probably every exclusive ever released on any system.

15 mil LTD

I'd only say 15m shipped is possible if Smash Ultimate gets the #1 spot in the U.S. Amazon yearly chart for video games (it's at #5 right now).

Is this game really THAT big in the US?

If I were to gauge interest in it in my corner of the world - I'd put at a little south of where Pokemon Pikachu and Pokemon Eevee are right now and most non-Switch owners are still more interested in Mario Kart and Zelda than Smash Bros.

I'm probably wrong, I like to be surprised (especially when it is to the benefit of Nintendo). But it feels like other Internet-forum-community Nintendo fans are making Smash out to be a much bigger game than it actually is. To me, this one kind of misses the oomph that Brawl had (and that was the biggest one both critically and commercially, despite the lies that Gamecube crusaders try to tell). And if I am wrong, you can chalk me up on the list of people you get to say "I TOLD YA SO!!!!" to =D

SMO launched on October. It had the launch, November, BF, and all December to get to 9M.
Also, it got all the attention, since no other big game was released on holidays.
If smash was released earlier, maybe it would got these 15M, but in 24 days, no way.

Damn, you haven't read this thread if you think 7.5m is the lowest!

I may have under estimated how much more they ship than sell-through as I am expecting 6.5-7m sell-through.

Actually it's mainly the other thread with the lower predictions, melbye 6m, Jason 6.5m etc 

Keep in mind, smash will have about double the user base to work with here too