That would be quite disheartening and worrisome if it managed only that.

I'm just trying to keep it very very conservative. Can't do like others and say it will do 200k+ xD

Sure.

200k is more likely than 70k.

It did 87k last year with no new releases, this year it has Pokemon along with the new Pokemon & Smash Bundles.

I will be pleasantly surprised if it does... 

350k from a console with that price in Japan these days? 3ds levels? 

How? With that kind of Pokémon game and smash which is three times less popular than Animal Crossing? 3ds sold 187k in the week of AC NL release in November - which was completely sold out - and had significant game releases in the following weeks. 

Not to mention how higher 3ds weekly baseline was then and keep in mind that switch went yoy down...

Japanese haven't embraced Switch hybrid nature to the extend that consumers in the west have. It seems like many of them treat it as a 29.999 ¥ handheld only console, so its price is a problem. 

NS most likely won't manage what you are implying, i.e surpassing or even hitting 7m by the end of the year.

Maybe it will be able to sell 300k in the week that 3ds had sold 411k units.

Let's come down to earth. 

Possible, I just don't see 200k as a possibility. If it was Gen 8, I'd say definitely, but Lets Go isn't the Gen 8 releases so i don't see it having as big of a impact as others. 

Exactly, but you set the bar to the other extreme. 

It was up by 12k in the last week without a new game release and it will increase just by 17k this week? 

After all, it's still Pokémon... 

A conservative prediction would be 90-95k, yours is unjustly pessimistic not conservative. 

We will see next week

Let's break it down then.

With a 1.42m holiday (43%) Switch sold 3.31m YTD.

With a 2.03m holiday (37%) 3DS sold 5.50m YTD in 2012.

With a 2.14m holiday (50%) 3DS sold 4.28m YTD in 2011.

If you expect a 2.00m holiday (51%) then the Switch will sell 3.90 YTD.

In other words you expect an >50% holiday ratio for the Switch in 2018. Certainly possible but the 3DS had a massive holiday in comparison to the rest of its 2011 due to a 40% price cut. The 3DS in 2012 had a massive holiday, but it also had a massive year, which the Switch isn't really having. The 2 300k+ weeks could be possible due to Smash and Christmas, but the other weeks are iffy.

Switch last week without any new game or bundle sold 55k, so you think that this week in which we have Pokemon games launch, Pokemon Switch bundles launch and Smash Bros bundle launch, will sell only 15k more? :)

200k is far more realistic than 70k, I don't see selling less than 150k in worst case.