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Who Should Run For President on the Democratic Side?

Forums - Politics Discussion - Who Should Run For President on the Democratic Side?

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Snoopy said:

1. Pretty sure most people don't even know where Denmark is so I think you're lying. Hell, the State I grew up in has a bigger population than Denmark four times over. How can your public sector and private sector be so strong, when we have to defend you all the time? Not to mention your GDP hasn't even hit HALF a trillion yet. One bad disaster and your country is ruined and you know it.

 

2. So? We can pay the interest of the debt without breaking a sweat. Also, people don't know that most of our debt is money we owe ourselves lol. Not to mention you neglect something called inflation.

ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ugDU2qNcyg

 

3. Yes, they struggle because of 1. the federal government allows anyone to take loans out for any degree. So if a kid is willing to put himself thousands of dollars in debt for a liberal arts degree, why would a university lower the price? 2. Americans suck at saving money and investing. I know plenty of people who blew all their money, then when they were laid off/fired they went bankrupt and blamed America. However, speaking of college you can get degrees pretty cheap (~30k) actually if you know where to shop and look. For example, you can get rid of almost all your basic classes by going to straighterline.com for around ~2k.

1. If the US wouldn't have a higher GDP despite having over 80 times as much population, the US would be amongst the poorest countries in the World, if not the poorest. Better compare GDP per capita, and there both Denmark and the US are about the same level (56K for Denmark, 59K for the US)

2. That's funny, when the Republicans are not in power they make huge waves about the debt but once they are in power they just increase spending and cut taxes left and right, ensuring the debt increases further and further. And last year, they suspended the debt ceiling to avoid hitting that, but that could only last one year and got reinstated just yesterday. Now the government is shuffling around the money to avoid hitting the ceiling, but in early fall it will be unavoidable - and good luck getting that one solved quickly after the record shutdown over the holiday season and early this year.

Yes, the debt can be repayed pretty easily - for now. but at the rate it's increasing, it will get more and more difficult, especially if there's a recession in between. And it's already the fourth-biggest item on the paylist of the US with 350 billions a year (after Medicare/Medicaid, Social Security and Defense), and growing faster than those except Medicare/Medicaid, which grows at the same speed. In a couple years it will overtake the defense budget at the current rate of growth.

The biggest problem is that if the debt gets too large, then the rating firms will downgrade the US debt, which results in higher interest rates. Once that happens then there's almost no way out anymore, as a rising debt will be needed to cover the rising interests on said debt. That's still a ways off, though, that won't happen during this or the next decade (unless something totally unforeseen happens)

3. According to you only the elites have any right for higher education? Since that's what you strongly imply with your first sentences.

Besides, the degrees could be much cheaper, but they are spending all the money on prestige objects like lazy rivers, and the amount of non-teaching staff, especially executives of all kind, spiraling out of control (I'll check if I can find the Forbes article I read a couple weeks ago, where in one state in the 80 there were 12000 faculty personnel and 1600 in administration, but now the faculty members are at 12500 and those of administration at 14000). MBA degrees are ridiculously overpriced now at over 200.000$, you practically need to become a well-paid executive right away after that of struggle forever to pay your bills.

1. Yet there are Countries like China and India with a bigger population and yet we have more money.

2. Eventually, we will have to drop social programs, tell other Countries they need to take care of themselves and end financial aid. It's as if social programs fail in the long run...

3. You assume wrong. Private banks will make loans, but for degrees that are actually worth it if the federal government just butt out. They will deny your loan for a liberal arts degree (unless it is really cheap) but approve your Engineering degree. And again, Universities have NO INCENTIVE to lower price because kids out of high school with no concept of money are willing to put themselves hundreds of thousand dollars in debt for joke degrees. If someone was willing to pay you a lot of money for a product, why would you lower the price?

Also, you don't need a college degree to be successful. There are other forms of education such as Coding boot camps, trade school, and even youtube videos.

Last edited by Snoopy - on 06 March 2019

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Primary choice: Bernie Sanders.
Secondary choice: Tulsi Gabbard.

Would love to see them as candidate and running mate....either iteration.

By the way, don't bother arguing with Snoopy. To him, his opinions will always 'trump' your facts.



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Snoopy said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

1. If the US wouldn't have a higher GDP despite having over 80 times as much population, the US would be amongst the poorest countries in the World, if not the poorest. Better compare GDP per capita, and there both Denmark and the US are about the same level (56K for Denmark, 59K for the US)

2. That's funny, when the Republicans are not in power they make huge waves about the debt but once they are in power they just increase spending and cut taxes left and right, ensuring the debt increases further and further. And last year, they suspended the debt ceiling to avoid hitting that, but that could only last one year and got reinstated just yesterday. Now the government is shuffling around the money to avoid hitting the ceiling, but in early fall it will be unavoidable - and good luck getting that one solved quickly after the record shutdown over the holiday season and early this year.

Yes, the debt can be repayed pretty easily - for now. but at the rate it's increasing, it will get more and more difficult, especially if there's a recession in between. And it's already the fourth-biggest item on the paylist of the US with 350 billions a year (after Medicare/Medicaid, Social Security and Defense), and growing faster than those except Medicare/Medicaid, which grows at the same speed. In a couple years it will overtake the defense budget at the current rate of growth.

The biggest problem is that if the debt gets too large, then the rating firms will downgrade the US debt, which results in higher interest rates. Once that happens then there's almost no way out anymore, as a rising debt will be needed to cover the rising interests on said debt. That's still a ways off, though, that won't happen during this or the next decade (unless something totally unforeseen happens)

3. According to you only the elites have any right for higher education? Since that's what you strongly imply with your first sentences.

Besides, the degrees could be much cheaper, but they are spending all the money on prestige objects like lazy rivers, and the amount of non-teaching staff, especially executives of all kind, spiraling out of control (I'll check if I can find the Forbes article I read a couple weeks ago, where in one state in the 80 there were 12000 faculty personnel and 1600 in administration, but now the faculty members are at 12500 and those of administration at 14000). MBA degrees are ridiculously overpriced now at over 200.000$, you practically need to become a well-paid executive right away after that of struggle forever to pay your bills.

1. Yet there are Countries like China and India with a bigger population and yet we have more money.

2. Eventually, we will have to drop social programs, tell other Countries they need to take care of themselves and end financial aid. It's as if social programs fail in the long run...

3. You assume wrong. Private banks will make loans, but for degrees that are actually worth it if the federal government just butt out. They will deny your loan for a liberal arts degree (unless it is really cheap) but approve your Engineering degree. And again, Universities have NO INCENTIVE to lower price because kids out of high school with no concept of money are willing to put themselves hundreds of thousand dollars in debt for joke degrees. If someone was willing to pay you a lot of money for a product, why would you lower the price?

Also, you don't need a college degree to be successful. There are other forms of education such as Coding boot camps, trade school, and even youtube videos.

1. Still, since they are still a developing country. But China is growing much faster than the US and will overtake them soon. US Has a total GDP of 20 Trillion while China is at 15 Trillion and growing at twice the speed of the US. 20 years ago the US economy was still 3 times bigger than the Chinese economy, now that's down to 25%

2. Or just cut the military budget and get some taxes from corporations and the super-rich, as they are paying next to nothing now, and certainly much, much less than they should, even some of them acknowledged that, and that was before Trumps tax cuts.

Also, drop financial aid? You do know that the US already pay much less then every other developed country as part of their GDP, and that financial aid generally pays out in the long run as these countries tend to like to deal with you in very generous terms.

3. Because it's unsustainable on the long run. At some point even the banks won't be willing to lend that much money without guarantees anymore - but what guarantee do you have to make it to your diploma and get a well-paid job that you can present to the bank beforehand? Especially in times of crisis and/or recession there's nothing you can give them unless they have rich parents who can guarantee to pay it back or poorer families who will have to gamble on their house and/or car as guarantees to the bank - at which point many poorer people will not be going to get higher degrees as the risks get too high. This then means less income for the Universities, thus jacking up the prices even higher to compensate, resulting finally in just the rich being able to afford an University degree. That's also why I said you imply a degree only for the rich, as that would be the result in the long run if nothing changes.

Youtube videos? Tell that to headhunters and employers who only look at your diplomas.



SpokenTruth said:
Primary choice: Bernie Sanders.
Secondary choice: Tulsi Gabbard.

Would love to see them as candidate and running mate....either iteration.

By the way, don't bother arguing with Snoopy. To him, his opinions will always 'trump' your facts.

Yeah, I answered to him, but I'm gonna leave it at that

Bernie/Tulsi would be the perfect team in my opinion. Third choice would be Kamala Harris for me.

By the way, anybody of you guys check the polls? Wikipedia has them in a nice list:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

And for the most recent one: https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Political-Intelligence-3.5.19.pdf (.pdf file)

Joe Biden is in front, but I don't doubt that this won't last very long anymore. He's more the establishment candidate and thus the more conservative choice, but I don't think he's gonna make it. He got the name recognition from the Obama era, but that's gonna fade later down the road I think.

Tulsi Gabbard is sadly very low in the polls right now, I really hope she can improve.

I expect John Delaney to drop out of the race soon considering his numbers, he's almost always dead last in the polls



Bernie I suppose.



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Joe Biden is the only real shot the Dems have against Trump



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ShadowSoldier said:
Joe Biden is the only real shot the Dems have against Trump

I wouldn't be so sure.

In fact, with Trump's actions provoking a counter-movement in the other direction, I think Biden is too centrist to garner the votes of of the progressives, as he's to centrist, too conservative, too much embodying "Establishment".

Also, have a look at this video. I know it's just a prediction, but it seems fairly logical to me for the most part: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvOqcHSiPl0



Bernie.

Wont matter though, Trump will win.



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I expect Beto O'Rourke to pretty much just faceroll the democratic primary, he's my first pick to win, I put Bernie as second as he got a lot of money and name recognition but people will get tired of his shouting. Kamilla Harris is my third choice but she has been worse then I expected.

Now who is the biggest anti-trump candidate? It's Beto he will kill Trump with kindness :)



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Bofferbrauer2 said:

By the way, anybody of you guys check the polls? Wikipedia has them in a nice list:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

Yeah, this is one good source. There are more.

RealClearPolitics only checks four major polls, but they conveniently have a running average of these four (I wish they also had a graph over time, so you could see how the race changes):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Fivethirtyeight also tracks the primary polls, they have ratings for the different pollsters (something they do to make their models more accurate) and also show sample size and if the people asked are likely voters, registered voters, adults and so on. I wish they would build these polls into a model, maybe they'll do it later:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

Fivethirtyeight also tracks endorsements, which looks quite different (I mean Booker?). They rate the 'value' of the endorsement based on office the person holds:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/

Last edited by Mnementh - on 07 March 2019

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