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US Midterm Elections 2018- Dems take the House, GOP Keeps the Senate.

Forums - Politics Discussion - US Midterm Elections 2018- Dems take the House, GOP Keeps the Senate.

Who did you vote for?

GOP Rep and GOP Senator 20 30.77%
 
Democrat Rep and Democrat Senator 38 58.46%
 
GOP Rep and Democrat Senator 0 0.00%
 
Democrat Rep and GOP Senator 4 6.15%
 
Third Party/Other 3 4.62%
 
Total:65

The 2018 midterm election are this Tuesday November 6th. These elections are pretty important because it will set the tone for President Trumps second half of his term.

So far over 30 million people have voted in 48 states through early voting, mail in ballots, and absentee voting. This is up from the 28 million that voted early in 2014.

I have to wait to vote on the 6th because New York State does not have early voting. So if you;re in the same boat as me or have not voting you can use this guide to help you find out where to vote, who is on the balot, and what laws are on the ballot.

https://www.vote411.org/ballot

So far based on polling it looks like the house is going to go to the Democrats. There is an estimated safe 202 democrat seats and 198 safe Republican seats. There are 37 toss up seats but most pollsters believe that the Democrats will win most of these and take the majority. For most midterms on average 23 are gained by the party opposing the President.

The senate is a bit different though. Right now there are 50 safe Republican seats and 48 safe Democrat seas with 6 tossups. But polling data suggest that the Republicans will gain an extra seat and keep their majority. So that would make it 52-48 in favor of the GOP. Right now the GOP has 51 seats in the Senate.

For more info on the govenor and other races you can check out this link https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2018/ .

I'll try to keep this thread updated on election day.



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That's not even going into the hundred little possible variables including 'percents', what states do and do not have good polling data, noticeable voting surges....

Let's put it this way, there is data for supporting about a hundred different outcomes.



The Democratic Nintendo fan....is that a paradox? I'm fond of one of the more conservative companies in the industry, but I vote Liberally and view myself that way 90% of the time?

What these dont cover is the silent voter, like the ones that showed up in 2016. I'd be mostly inclined to believe Dems get the house by a very slim margin, but at this time I don't even know if I want to take that bet atm. I think Senate goes to Repubs but house to me now seems like 50/50 could go either way. Tuesday is definitely going to be interesting. This election season is a very hard one to accurately guess



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I already Voted. So I'm doing my civic duty:)

For predictions. I think that the Democrats will take the house by a margin of like 4 or 5. For senate, I think the Democrats will lose North Dakota and maybe Missouri. But gain Arizona and maybe, but unlikely right now Nevada. So its probably going to remain 51 to 49 or 52 to 48.

Might I also give a big fuck you to the republicans in my state legislature, There gerrymandering has left Virginia with more Republican Congressional representatives than Democrats for several years (7 to 4). Even though Virginia is about 55% Democrats. They will lose 1 seat with a 50/50 chance of 2 others. I can only pray that happens.



     

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I remember the last time polls were in favor of democrats.



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Don't believe the polls, democrats will win about 50 house seats and 4 senate races (Texas, Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona). It will be similiar to what happened in the virginia governor race where democrats beat the polls by a decent amount.



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Ignore the polls. Go vote. I don't care if a poll says your party is winning by 10 points....get your ass out there and vote.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Nate Silver points the chances of the Democrats taking the house on his model are closer to Obama 2012 than Clinton 2016.

I'm cautiously optimistic about this. But... who knows.

Last edited by haxxiy - on 05 November 2018

 

 

 

 

 

It's just like the 2016 Presidential Election - the more people say that the Democrats will win, the more I'm worried that they're going to lose. I'm already mentally preparing for the Republicans to win both the house and senate tomorrow night.

Last edited by jamesmarkus87 - on 05 November 2018

I'm gonna vote before I get to class tomorrow.
Probably gonna vote for Dem Kristen Gillibrand for senate but for my district their is only a democrat running so I guess I'll vote for him. For governor I'm going with Libertarian Larry Sharpe. He has some great ideas for NY and was Gary Johnsons VP canidate I'm 2016
I also just want Cuomo out of office and don't like the other canidates since all they do is twist the truth.