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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Results (Jul-Sep) 2018, Switch Sales: 3.19M, 3DS 0.64M

KBG29 on 30 October 2018
Green098 said:
KBG29 said:

I guess they have incredible confidence in the Pokemon spinoff, and Smash. I'm with you though, I don't think it will happen. In fact, I think they will miss by a good margin. 

Next quarter will be a huge tell at the true projection for the Switch. If they can indeed move 10 - 12 million units, then they may really be on its way to great success, if they end end up in the 6 - 8 million range, then I think it will be a sign that it really is coming to an end for Nintendo in the hardware business. 

For the Quarter, things are good, but the future is still not certain.

Not reaching 20 million in a single fiscal year is not the end all to a company at a hardware perspective.

 

Otherwise Sony and Microsoft have just as dark of a future as Nintendo do.

 

Wii U didn't even sell 20 million in 5 years, yet Nintendo are now today as successful and relevant as ever.

If Switch ends up taking the same nose dive we have seen with Wii, WiiU, and 3DS, we could be at a point where Nintendo only sells ~40 - 50M total hardware units in a generation. They have never been in this position. The Switch is covering the home and portable space, and it could end up selling less than the 3DS. 

I'm not saying it is over, stating, that if things go south, they pretty much have nowhere left to turn in the hardware space. 

I would prefer that they reach their goal, and the Switch gets revisions, and continues to sell, surpasing the 3DS, and seeing Nintendo get stronger. Things just don't look optimistic right now, and past devices show a concerning trend. Like I said, next quarter will be very telling for the future.



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tbone51 on 30 October 2018
bananaking21 said:
Frank_kc said:
Seems like they didnt adjust there forecast down, there is no way for Switch to ship 20 Million by End of March 2019

Yeah I just don't see how they plan on shipping 15 million in 2 quarters. 11 million and 4 million in those quarters is just way too high

Smash is the answer. People underestimating how hard that game pushes systems. Its one of the few games ever that people buy a system juat for it and nothing else



siebensus4 on 30 October 2018

The true power of Switch will arise when we see a handheld SKU (without dock) with a much lower price tag next year. Together with Animal Crossing and main Pokemon this would sell crazy (at least in Japan). It's obvious that Nintendo will abandon 3DS after holidays 2018.

OP: Switch suffered from missing AAA first party games this year. Mario Tennis and Party are filler games and no system sellers imo.
Smash Bros. has to do a little wonder to reach the 20m hardware target.



Supermario28 on 30 October 2018

Wii's FY2009 moved 3'888'000units a month from October to December, it's more than 11.5mil in 3 months. That FY, Wii sold 20.7 mil
Wii's big holiday release was NSMB.Wii and Wii Fit Plus. So it's maybe something switch can repeat with Smash, Pokemon and the other bundles.

But still, to manage 4 mil from january to march 2019 looks very difficult.
Maybe I'm underestimating the bump in sales due to NSMB.U in early january?
Fire Emblem, Yoshi and DaemonXmachina may all be out before march but i don't think they'll move a lot of hardware.



Kerotan on 30 October 2018

I'm not sure this pokemon spin off will be huge so it all comes down to smash.



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PortisheadBiscuit on 30 October 2018
KBG29 said:
Green098 said:

Not reaching 20 million in a single fiscal year is not the end all to a company at a hardware perspective.

 

Otherwise Sony and Microsoft have just as dark of a future as Nintendo do.

 

Wii U didn't even sell 20 million in 5 years, yet Nintendo are now today as successful and relevant as ever.

If Switch ends up taking the same nose dive we have seen with Wii, WiiU, and 3DS, we could be at a point where Nintendo only sells ~40 - 50M total hardware units in a generation. They have never been in this position. The Switch is covering the home and portable space, and it could end up selling less than the 3DS. 

I'm not saying it is over, stating, that if things go south, they pretty much have nowhere left to turn in the hardware space. 

I would prefer that they reach their goal, and the Switch gets revisions, and continues to sell, surpasing the 3DS, and seeing Nintendo get stronger. Things just don't look optimistic right now, and past devices show a concerning trend. Like I said, next quarter will be very telling for the future.

Glad Nintendo has more confidence in themselves than this. Geez.



PortisheadBiscuit on 30 October 2018
Kerotan said:
I'm not sure this pokemon spin off will be huge so it all comes down to smash.

No it doesn't