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September NPD 2018 thread, results up! PS4 421K; NSW 259K; XB1 176K; 3DS 81K

Forums - Sales Discussion - September NPD 2018 thread, results up! PS4 421K; NSW 259K; XB1 176K; 3DS 81K

Let me know you feedback, would you like those threads to be a thing?

yes 46 93.88%
 
no 3 6.12%
 
Total:49
quickrick said:
LipeJJ said:

As in outsell, you mean they could outsell Smash if combined worldwide? If so, yeah, I can see that potentially happening if all goes well for both games in the long term sales.

what do you mean combined? combined they will do over 25 million probably im talking each game individually.

Yeah, I agree, GOW should do 10m~12m and Spiderman ~15m, so definitely at least 25m.

PS: My prediction has Smash doing at least ~20m.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

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Manlytears said:
LipeJJ said:

As in outsell, you mean they could outsell Smash if combined worldwide? If so, yeah, I can see that potentially happening if all goes well for both games in the long term sales.

Of course GoW and spider will outsell smash if combined, no way in hell smash can sell over 25-30M copies.

smash Vs Gow Vs spider sure is interesting. I think all of than are going to pass 10M easy, perhaps even surpass 15M.

30m is too much, I agree. That's Mario Kart level and I don't think Smash has that much potential. 25m however... I can totally see it reaching it. My prediction has it doing at least 20m LT. We should know pretty quickly tho, as Nintendo will share their holiday results on late January. It will be a great showing of the game's potential.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Spiderman did not surpass GOW but it obliterated GOW.

Benji said: 
Just to be clear Spidey did not marginally surpass

GoW It completely obliterated it

 

Spiderman sold more than 2.6 million

Chris 1515 said: 

Spiderman sold more than 2,6 millons, crazy...

 

From Reset



LipeJJ said:

30m is too much, I agree. That's Mario Kart level and I don't think Smash has that much potential. 25m however... I can totally see it reaching it. My prediction has it doing at least 20m LT. We should know pretty quickly tho, as Nintendo will share their holiday results on late January. It will be a great showing of the game's potential.

Isn't ssb a 10-12 mln brand? Why do you think the next one will sell so well?



Now Playing:

The Witcher 3, FFXIV, Lightning Returns (PC). 
Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE (Wii U).
Uncharted 4 (PS4).

LipeJJ said:
Manlytears said:

Of course GoW and spider will outsell smash if combined, no way in hell smash can sell over 25-30M copies.

smash Vs Gow Vs spider sure is interesting. I think all of than are going to pass 10M easy, perhaps even surpass 15M.

30m is too much, I agree. That's Mario Kart level and I don't think Smash has that much potential. 25m however... I can totally see it reaching it. My prediction has it doing at least 20m LT. We should know pretty quickly tho, as Nintendo will share their holiday results on late January. It will be a great showing of the game's potential.

I think Smash Bros. Ultimate has great sales potential. Whether it be 15-20 million, we'll have to see.

Several things are in its favor:

- The Switch is selling well and with Smash and Pokemon being the headliners for Nintendo's holiday season, I cannot see how, unless either game falls flat on their faces in the reviews, they can get off to a decent start in sales. As noted by Shadow earlier in his analysis, the Switch is doing ok for now and Pokemon and Smash are tasked to bring it this holiday season. Whereas during the Wii U days, comparatively, the console did not have the greatest momentum despite Smash 4 releasing in the Wii U's best year (2014).

- The big Nintendo games tend to have really impressive legs. Even games like Kirby's Star Allies has popped up in the Japanese charts from time to time months after its release.

- There will likely be a Smash game in the future, but it will probably take a longer time between releases compared to the time frame of Smash 4 and Ultimate. Thus, Smash Bros. Ultimate, if it has great legs, will continue to sell for quite some time.

- Nintendo and Sakurai are marketing Smash Bros. Ultimate as the "biggest crossover in gaming history." That's a nice marketing push. Especially when you have other media creating big crossover events. Take Avengers Infinity War for example. Or, for what its worth, Justice League. Sure, Smash Bros. Ultimate may not end up with $2 billion in revenue, but it can use its big roster of some of the most well-known Nintendo, and third party, characters to its advantage more than ever before. 



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LipeJJ said:
quickrick said:

what do you mean combined? combined they will do over 25 million probably im talking each game individually.

Yeah, I agree, GOW should do 10m~12m and Spiderman ~15m, so definitely at least 25m.

PS: My prediction has Smash doing at least ~20m.

many people are gonna be very disappointed in smash sales, no it will go over 16 million.





"Every day I look in the mirror and ask myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?". If the answer is no for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something"

Steve Jobs

quickrick said:
its funny how people laughed when i said spiderman and GOW have a chance to outsell smash brothers

Smash Bros. will easily be at least 15m+ selling game LT, it will sell hole Switch life and it will have crazy legs hole Switch life span because it will be one must having Switch games similar like MK8D, Zelda BotW and Mario Odyssey are currently. Who know where exactly LT Smash Ultimate will land, but I can bet that in worst case will hit at least 15m.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 24 October 2018

last92 said:
LipeJJ said:

30m is too much, I agree. That's Mario Kart level and I don't think Smash has that much potential. 25m however... I can totally see it reaching it. My prediction has it doing at least 20m LT. We should know pretty quickly tho, as Nintendo will share their holiday results on late January. It will be a great showing of the game's potential.

Isn't ssb a 10-12 mln brand? Why do you think the next one will sell so well?

Yep, it is. Just like Zelda was a 5m~8m brand, but Zelda BotW is already over 10m just a year and a half after release. Same for Splatoon 2, which surpassed the original on the first year, or Xenoblade Chronicles 2, and so on. This is one of the reasons I think the series will grow on Switch: almost everything is growing, and some games are reaching never seen before hights. I mean, Odyssey shipped 9m in a quarter when most 3D Marios end up selling around 10m. Besides, Switch's audience seems more connected to Nintendo games than never, not to mention they're all having awesome legs. Hype is also through the roof and the internet seems to like it a lot.

There are even more reasons, but these are the main ones.

quickrick said:
LipeJJ said:

Yeah, I agree, GOW should do 10m~12m and Spiderman ~15m, so definitely at least 25m.

PS: My prediction has Smash doing at least ~20m.

many people are gonna be very disappointed in smash sales, no it will go over 16 million.

16m is your LT prediction for Smash? Out of curiosity: How much do you think Nintendo will ship on its first month?



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

last92 said:
LipeJJ said:

30m is too much, I agree. That's Mario Kart level and I don't think Smash has that much potential. 25m however... I can totally see it reaching it. My prediction has it doing at least 20m LT. We should know pretty quickly tho, as Nintendo will share their holiday results on late January. It will be a great showing of the game's potential.

Isn't ssb a 10-12 mln brand? Why do you think the next one will sell so well?

Just look at any Switch game that's out there right now. 

As of June 30th, 2018:

Super Mario Odyssey shipped 11.17 million copies in 246 days (or roughly 8 months), 3D Mario games generally only sell around the 11-12 million mark in their entire life. 

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild shipped 9.32 million copies, making it the single highest selling Zelda sku ever, and only a few million away from beating Ocarina of Time's N64 + 3DS sales (which it's more than likely done by now as of writing this, and if it is hasn't, it definitely will by the end of this year). This is only including the Switch version. 

The thing is it's not just extremely innovative or re-imagined franchises either ... something like Splatoon 2 has already sold %140 what Splatoon sold in it's entire life. Yes, it still has some novelty going for it, and obviously the Wii U had a very small install base (which usually doesn't mean much but certainly capped games like Splatoon). However ... the point is that the consistency is there. 

Xenoblade sold better than the past games in just a couple of months, Kirby has had some rejuvenation...

Even ports like Donkey Kong Country are selling far faster than the original. The original did not even make it into the most sold Wii U games chart by Nintendo, whereas the Switch version has already shipped 1.42 million units in less than two months. 

I don't want to be that guy that says that everything that touches the Switch will just automatically sell. We know that isn't true. But the ceiling for unit sales is a lot higher with this console than an average Nintendo platform. The only game that isn't smashing records, is Mario Kart, and that's to be expected because of Wii's outstanding performance ...