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Forums - Sales Discussion - September NPD 2018 thread, results up! PS4 421K; NSW 259K; XB1 176K; 3DS 81K

 

Let me know you feedback, would you like those threads to be a thing?

yes 46 93.88%
 
no 3 6.12%
 
Total:49
DakonBlackblade on 20 October 2018

PS4 is beastly, the thing is still going strong and not showing signs of stopping anytime soon.



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jason1637 on 20 October 2018
Barkley said:
jason1637 said:

Is the 4.9m confirmed? Switch sold 2.2m by August so that would mean in the last 2 months it has 2.7m which seems a bit too high.

No 4.8m is just VGC figures, the only official one I'm are of is 1.8m shipped for Q1 (April-June). Did they announce July/August shipped somewhere?

Oh ok. The 20m was from a verge article. 

https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/31/17633740/nintendo-earnings-q1-2018-switch-sales-figures



Ryng on 20 October 2018
CGI-Quality said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
Reserved post/

These are a tad excessive.

I'll need them (all of them) later.



globalisateur on 20 October 2018
Shadow1980 said:

 

 

Tons of graphs and analysis...

Thanks Shadow, I love your graphs. We don't deserve you !

Ryng what are you doing with your reserved posts ? Lol.



jonathanalis on 20 October 2018
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
jonathanalis said:
Switch not going well.
20 million seems unreachable.

How much has it sold this year so far? It sold 16 mil in year one right? I thought Second year was up

Well, considering official shipping numbers, less than 2 million until June. So, it had to sell 18 million+ in Q2 to Q4. A reasonable spread would be 4 million, 10 million and 4 million for Q2 to Q4 respectively. 

But in Q2 it has been far behind... 

So the only way to reach the 20 million would be shipping 12+ million in Q3. And this insane high. 

So, it seems that switch will ship more than last year 15 million, but won't reach the Nintendo forecast. 

In fact, i expect them to low the forecast in the next shareholders meeting. 



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JRPGfan on 20 October 2018
jonathanalis said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

How much has it sold this year so far? It sold 16 mil in year one right? I thought Second year was up

Well, considering official shipping numbers, less than 2 million until June. So, it had to sell 18 million+ in Q2 to Q4. A reasonable spread would be 4 million, 10 million and 4 million for Q2 to Q4 respectively. 

But in Q2 it has been far behind... 

So the only way to reach the 20 million would be shipping 12+ million in Q3. And this insane high. 

So, it seems that switch will ship more than last year 15 million, but won't reach the Nintendo forecast. 

In fact, i expect them to low the forecast in the next shareholders meeting. 

They ll probably lower forecast from 20m down to 16m.
16m seems more realistic and something they could probably hit and beat (which is always better than haveing to announce you didnt meet expectations).



PortisheadBiscuit on 20 October 2018

Unless Nintendo is planning a $199 BF and $249 for the the remainder of the holidays (which Nintendo would never be caught dead doing), 20 million is quite a lofty goal. 17-18 million has always seemed more likely IMO



Rob5VGC on 20 October 2018

Monsuta de wa nai! Kami da!

PS4 doing big things.



Kai_Mao on 20 October 2018
PortisheadBiscuit said:
Unless Nintendo is planning a $199 BF and $249 for the the remainder of the holidays (which Nintendo would never be caught dead doing), 20 million is quite a lofty goal. 17-18 million has always seemed more likely IMO

I mean, Nintendo did cut the price of the 3DS to a significant amount and even cut the price of the GameCube to $99. They even cut the price of the successful Wii.

Not saying that they will cut the Switch's price this holiday, but it's not necessarily out of the options. Right now, they probably want to sell it as a profit and if they still believe its selling well enough as a profit at its current price, then they'll stay the course with its price.



quickrick on 21 October 2018
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Kyuu said:

There's no doubt that the vast majority of us predicted the Switch to beat PS4 in NPD 2018; and this is on the very logical presumption that PS4 would get its long-overdue "permanent" pricecut before August (It didn't). All in all, we moderately overestimated Switch for reasons including Labo's potential and 2017's stock issues which made the demand for the foreseeable future look greater than it turned out to be. More evergreen games, the new model, and a price drop should liven things up, so my expectations for 2019 remain very high.

PS4 was underestimated mainly due to its age. Not many consoles peak on their 5th year, let alone without an official price drop. Nintendo's optimistic projection as opposed to Sony's pessimism also contributed to the poor predictions in general.

I actually predicted PS4 to be up year on year worldwide, but the basis of that was the permanent pricecut and Kingdom Hearts 3 releasing this holiday, I would have never thought PS4 can do so well without the aforementioned.

As for Switch, it's overperforming in parts of Europe and slightly underperforming in USA relative to my expectations. Can't comment on Japan since the handheld community is heavily reliant on a low price range. If Nintendo doesn't drop the price down to $150 at one point, then it wouldn't shock me if it it fails to outsell 3DS or even PSP.

Good comment. Although I would not necessarily say we overestimated demand for Switch. iirc Even with stock issues Switch shipped/sold 16.4 mil in first year versus 14.5 for PS4 first year. Or something like that. The problem is that this year just has the heavy hitters stacked in the last two months. Or at least, in my uneducated opinion.

 

By the way "then it wouldn't shock me if it it fails to outsell 3DS or even PSP" 

 

Didn't PSP sell more than 3ds? Shouldn't it be the opposite way around?

the ps4 first year comparison  vs switch was always bad, very bad. ps4 launched during the holiday was severally limited in supply, basically having a minor boost in during  a time where it could ship 6-7 million with out a launch boost included, it only shipped 4.1 million with a launch, boost stock issues were massive.

Last edited by quickrick - on 21 October 2018