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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Why is the Switch still not getting big games from 3rd parties? October edition

potato_hamster on 23 October 2018
Miyamotoo said:
potato_hamster said:

Not, it doesn't work that way. First, you made the claim, so it's on you to support that claim. Secondly, there are thousands of multi-platform games on PS4 and Xbox one, not 100, so your sample size isn't big enough.

If you're only talking about Nitnendo games for Switch you're moving the goalposts, and making a meaningless distinction. So many first party Nintendo games have legs. So what? What does that have to do with the fact that the vast majority of games do not, and what does that have anything to do with the sales of big third party games on Switch? Ohh right. Nothing.

To think that it's wrong to compare the sales of a game that sells 1 million of PS4 and 100K on Switch because less than 1% of Switch users bought a game and apparently that isn't enough of an install base to have higher sales numbers. Completely ridiculous. if Mario Odyssey can sell 11 million copies on Switch, any game can.

No, games do not necessarily sell better based on the install base. Take for example the Dreamcast. Sega stopped producing dreamcasts 14 months after its release, yet some games still continued to sell copies 2-3 years after Sega stopped producing Dreamcasts. Where did those sales come from? It certainly wasn't that increasing install base, so what was it?

This is a thread about third party sales. If you can't talk about third party sales, then there's not much point of talking in there's thread, is there? First party sales are irrelevant to this conversation.

Most Nitnendo IPs do not have 8 million + in sales like Uncharted 4 and Horizon: Zero Dawn have done, or God of War and Spider-man will do. That's a fact. Nintendo has a lot more IPs that Mario, Mario Kart, and Zelda, you know. That again, has little to do with install base. The PS3 has about the same sales as the PS4, and PS3's first party games didn't sell nearly as well as the new titles on PS4 are. See if you can figure out why.

Do you realy think we will compare thousuands of games? Top 50 best selling games will be more than enough.

Lol, from start of our discussion I was talking about Nintendo games vs Sony games sales, and I even couple of times mentioned that, how that can be moving goal post? Again, I was talking Sony vs Nintendo games sales on first place.

Ofcourse its wrong, and it's wrong to use those numbers like definitive numbers, simple because even that 100k game will keep selling how intall base is growing, its far more accurate to compare attach rate for that game than simple numbers if you already comparing sales of games on different platform with huge difference in install base. Lol, point that Odyssey sold 11m on Switch dont has anything with that, despite Odyssey sold 11m it will sell more how install base is growing, same like that 100k game.

Games have better sales how install base is growing, simple fact. Switch games will keep selling how install base growing, same like we can say that PS4 games had lower sales when install base was 40m instead of current 80m. You cant spin that around, we talking about clear facts, even that Dreamcast games would again sold better if Dreamcast had higher install base than it did.

I gave you simple reply to things that are clearly wrong, you brought 3rd party in discussion, and that wasnt my point.

You wrote "Sony first party titles are selling higher than most Nintendo IPs", and you call that a fact!? Gave a proof, gave me a numbers, because every gen Nintendo destroyed Sony games in sales and even now on Switch we can already compare sales despite PS4 has much higher install base than Switch. Most Sony IPs also dont have those sales, you mention Sony has four 8m+ sold games on install base of 80m, Switch that has only 20m install base we already have three 8m+ seller games, Zelda BotW, Mario Odyssey, MK8D and we will also have Splatoon2, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros, 2D Mario...and who know what else, Nintendo games will destroy in sales Sony games like it always do. And offcourse that has plenty with install base, how Switch install base is growing those games will keep selling, Zelda BotW, Mario Odyssey and MK8D will most likly all be 15m+ sellers at end, Splatoon 2 will easily pass 8m+ sales how install base is growing maybe even at end of this year.

Yes I do expect you to compared hundreds, if not thousands of games when you claim over 90% of multi-platform games on PS4 and XB1 has a 2 to 1 sales advantage for PS4. That's how statistics work. In order to make that claim, you would have to already know that.

From the start of the discussion you might have been talking Sony vs Nintendo, but I was not, as that's irrelevant to the covnersation.

I don't see how you think attach rate is still anything more than an excuse to apologize for poor third party sales. No one cares about attach rate. It's just a meaningless stat fans came up with to argue over different video game console platforms. It has no bearing or merit in the real world. It doesn't mean anything. It doesn't prove anything. It's nothing, but you keep hanging on to it, because "look how many less sales Switch has compared to PS4! you can't expect to have third party game sell millions of units like it does on PS4, that's unfair and ridiculous. Ignore those first party games that are still selling super well though, those don't count!"

And I've never said these select few games won't sell more as time goes on. I said the trickling of sales on most titles after the first 6 months to a year of release doesn't mean anything. This is obvious. However you're making the claim that these sales are directly related to platform growth and you've come nowhere close to demonstrating that. Let me put it this way. Let's say in 2020, Breath of the WIld 2 is released on Switch, and Switch at the time has 60 million units sold. How many copies does it sell? How many copies will it have sold in 2022? If you can't answer those questions within a reasonable margin of error, there is no direct correlation between the two.

I never brought third party into the discussion, you're trying to take third party out of it.

I named Sony first party titles that will sell higher than most Nintendo IPs. God of War, Uncharted 4, Horizon: Zero Dawn, and Spiderman will sell more copies than most of the games Nintendo puts out. That's a fact. You might not like that Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda, Splatoon, Smash etc only make up a small fraction of the games Nintendo releases, but it's true nevertheless. If you disagree, please point out when you think Mario Tennis, or Captain Toad or Go Vacation, or Kirby Star Allies, or Bayonetta or Xenoblade Chronicles, or Donkey Kong tropical Freeze will reach 8 million copies sold that all of the Sony titles I listed have sold or will sell.



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Miyamotoo on 23 October 2018
potato_hamster said:
Miyamotoo said:

Do you realy think we will compare thousuands of games? Top 50 best selling games will be more than enough.

Lol, from start of our discussion I was talking about Nintendo games vs Sony games sales, and I even couple of times mentioned that, how that can be moving goal post? Again, I was talking Sony vs Nintendo games sales on first place.

Ofcourse its wrong, and it's wrong to use those numbers like definitive numbers, simple because even that 100k game will keep selling how intall base is growing, its far more accurate to compare attach rate for that game than simple numbers if you already comparing sales of games on different platform with huge difference in install base. Lol, point that Odyssey sold 11m on Switch dont has anything with that, despite Odyssey sold 11m it will sell more how install base is growing, same like that 100k game.

Games have better sales how install base is growing, simple fact. Switch games will keep selling how install base growing, same like we can say that PS4 games had lower sales when install base was 40m instead of current 80m. You cant spin that around, we talking about clear facts, even that Dreamcast games would again sold better if Dreamcast had higher install base than it did.

I gave you simple reply to things that are clearly wrong, you brought 3rd party in discussion, and that wasnt my point.

You wrote "Sony first party titles are selling higher than most Nintendo IPs", and you call that a fact!? Gave a proof, gave me a numbers, because every gen Nintendo destroyed Sony games in sales and even now on Switch we can already compare sales despite PS4 has much higher install base than Switch. Most Sony IPs also dont have those sales, you mention Sony has four 8m+ sold games on install base of 80m, Switch that has only 20m install base we already have three 8m+ seller games, Zelda BotW, Mario Odyssey, MK8D and we will also have Splatoon2, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros, 2D Mario...and who know what else, Nintendo games will destroy in sales Sony games like it always do. And offcourse that has plenty with install base, how Switch install base is growing those games will keep selling, Zelda BotW, Mario Odyssey and MK8D will most likly all be 15m+ sellers at end, Splatoon 2 will easily pass 8m+ sales how install base is growing maybe even at end of this year.

Yes I do expect you to compared hundreds, if not thousands of games when you claim over 90% of multi-platform games on PS4 and XB1 has a 2 to 1 sales advantage for PS4. That's how statistics work. In order to make that claim, you would have to already know that.

From the start of the discussion you might have been talking Sony vs Nintendo, but I was not, as that's irrelevant to the covnersation.

I don't see how you think attach rate is still anything more than an excuse to apologize for poor third party sales. No one cares about attach rate. It's just a meaningless stat fans came up with to argue over different video game console platforms. It has no bearing or merit in the real world. It doesn't mean anything. It doesn't prove anything. It's nothing, but you keep hanging on to it, because "look how many less sales Switch has compared to PS4! you can't expect to have third party game sell millions of units like it does on PS4, that's unfair and ridiculous. Ignore those first party games that are still selling super well though, those don't count!"

And I've never said these select few games won't sell more as time goes on. I said the trickling of sales on most titles after the first 6 months to a year of release doesn't mean anything. This is obvious. However you're making the claim that these sales are directly related to platform growth and you've come nowhere close to demonstrating that. Let me put it this way. Let's say in 2020, Breath of the WIld 2 is released on Switch, and Switch at the time has 60 million units sold. How many copies does it sell? How many copies will it have sold in 2022? If you can't answer those questions within a reasonable margin of error, there is no direct correlation between the two.

I never brought third party into the discussion, you're trying to take third party out of it.

I named Sony first party titles that will sell higher than most Nintendo IPs. God of War, Uncharted 4, Horizon: Zero Dawn, and Spiderman will sell more copies than most of the games Nintendo puts out. That's a fact. You might not like that Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda, Splatoon, Smash etc only make up a small fraction of the games Nintendo releases, but it's true nevertheless. If you disagree, please point out when you think Mario Tennis, or Captain Toad or Go Vacation, or Kirby Star Allies, or Bayonetta or Xenoblade Chronicles, or Donkey Kong tropical Freeze will reach 8 million copies sold that all of the Sony titles I listed have sold or will sell.

OK, prove than I am not right, gave me statistic of hundreds or thousands. First 100 top best selling games is more than enough to get insight.

Than how you accuse me that I moving goal posts? And Sony vs Nintendo is not irrevent because thats main reason I made reply to you.

Attach rate is excuse? Attach rate is valid point, when you comparing sales on different platforms and espacily if we talk about huge difference in install base. I cant still belive you are OK with comparing sales of games on 80m and 20m install bases.

You still missing clear fact that I mentione to you several times, every game will sell better how install base is growing, some more than others, but every single game will sell better how install base is growing. That doesn't have anything with possible Zelda BotW 2 release later, or how much Zelda BotW 2 would sell than.

Again, I didnt discused about 3rd party at all when I made reply to you, from start I wrote to you that you are wrong when you claimed that "Sony first party titles are selling higher than most Nintendo IPs" or that install base dont have effect on sales of games.

How is that vaild point when Pokemon, Animal Crosing, Mario Odyssey, Zelda BotW, Smash Bros...will all most likly sell more than best selling Sony games?

 

You dont make sense, and you force me to repeat over and over same facts and points that you keep ignoring, I don't see point continuing with this, so I will not reply to you any more.



AngryLittleAlchemist on 23 October 2018

I didn't know VGChartz was such an effective illiteracy test



DonFerrari on 23 October 2018

Reasons are still the same, technical, only games that can run with weaker HW will be ported.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

theARTIST0017 on 23 October 2018

I think I see where the OP is coming from. There are big name titles which seems like a missed opportunity on Switch, like COD and RDR. I think slowly we are getting games like Wolfenstein, like Skyrim, Diablo, Doom, Warframe and it will take more time but I am optimistic. If we don't see certain games, then we move on right?



NINTENDO

nintendo forever . . .

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xxbrothawizxx63 on 23 October 2018

None of the big 3P games for September charted on the Switch specific list for NPD. Maybe that.



Megiddo on 23 October 2018
xxbrothawizxx63 said:
None of the big 3P games for September charted on the Switch specific list for NPD. Maybe that.

I believe Megaman 11, Crash, and MonHun were on there.

So that's 2 "late ports" and 2 basic platformers.

Whereas DBZ Fighters (also a late port), FIFA, NBA, and Valkyria Chronicles were no shows.

Nintendo fans want platformers and they want late ports, judging by their wallet spending (beyond Nintendo published games of course). I imagine they'll keep getting that.



Miyamotoo on 24 October 2018

On Resetera, few known insiders, said that that some big 3rd party games are on hold and some even cancelled because price/availability of bigger Switch carts,
it's definitely that problem affecting in some degree on 3rd party support for Switch. GTAV and CoD are games that were heavily hinted like some examples.

Saying that WSJ at end of last year reported that 64GB Switch carts are coming in 2019. and probably in same time prices of 32GB and 16GB carts will go down (apparently only one game until now used 32GB cart), so we should have more big 3rd party games next year.
WSJ also last year reported that big 3rd party Japanese games will start showing in 2019. because of time when work on them started (at end of 2017. or early 2018.).



potato_hamster on 24 October 2018
Miyamotoo said:
potato_hamster said:

Yes I do expect you to compared hundreds, if not thousands of games when you claim over 90% of multi-platform games on PS4 and XB1 has a 2 to 1 sales advantage for PS4. That's how statistics work. In order to make that claim, you would have to already know that.

From the start of the discussion you might have been talking Sony vs Nintendo, but I was not, as that's irrelevant to the covnersation.

I don't see how you think attach rate is still anything more than an excuse to apologize for poor third party sales. No one cares about attach rate. It's just a meaningless stat fans came up with to argue over different video game console platforms. It has no bearing or merit in the real world. It doesn't mean anything. It doesn't prove anything. It's nothing, but you keep hanging on to it, because "look how many less sales Switch has compared to PS4! you can't expect to have third party game sell millions of units like it does on PS4, that's unfair and ridiculous. Ignore those first party games that are still selling super well though, those don't count!"

And I've never said these select few games won't sell more as time goes on. I said the trickling of sales on most titles after the first 6 months to a year of release doesn't mean anything. This is obvious. However you're making the claim that these sales are directly related to platform growth and you've come nowhere close to demonstrating that. Let me put it this way. Let's say in 2020, Breath of the WIld 2 is released on Switch, and Switch at the time has 60 million units sold. How many copies does it sell? How many copies will it have sold in 2022? If you can't answer those questions within a reasonable margin of error, there is no direct correlation between the two.

I never brought third party into the discussion, you're trying to take third party out of it.

I named Sony first party titles that will sell higher than most Nintendo IPs. God of War, Uncharted 4, Horizon: Zero Dawn, and Spiderman will sell more copies than most of the games Nintendo puts out. That's a fact. You might not like that Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda, Splatoon, Smash etc only make up a small fraction of the games Nintendo releases, but it's true nevertheless. If you disagree, please point out when you think Mario Tennis, or Captain Toad or Go Vacation, or Kirby Star Allies, or Bayonetta or Xenoblade Chronicles, or Donkey Kong tropical Freeze will reach 8 million copies sold that all of the Sony titles I listed have sold or will sell.

OK, prove than I am not right, gave me statistic of hundreds or thousands. First 100 top best selling games is more than enough to get insight.

Than how you accuse me that I moving goal posts? And Sony vs Nintendo is not irrevent because thats main reason I made reply to you.

Attach rate is excuse? Attach rate is valid point, when you comparing sales on different platforms and espacily if we talk about huge difference in install base. I cant still belive you are OK with comparing sales of games on 80m and 20m install bases.

You still missing clear fact that I mentione to you several times, every game will sell better how install base is growing, some more than others, but every single game will sell better how install base is growing. That doesn't have anything with possible Zelda BotW 2 release later, or how much Zelda BotW 2 would sell than.

Again, I didnt discused about 3rd party at all when I made reply to you, from start I wrote to you that you are wrong when you claimed that "Sony first party titles are selling higher than most Nintendo IPs" or that install base dont have effect on sales of games.

How is that vaild point when Pokemon, Animal Crosing, Mario Odyssey, Zelda BotW, Smash Bros...will all most likly sell more than best selling Sony games?

 

You dont make sense, and you force me to repeat over and over same facts and points that you keep ignoring, I don't see point continuing with this, so I will not reply to you any more.

No. That's not how it works. YOU made the claim that it's over 95% of games. It is on YOU to support that claim. Otherwise it's baseless nonsense.

You moved the goalposts because the thread is about third parties, not Sony vs Nintendo. You're off in your own little world and I'm not playing that game.

Again, attach rate is not a valid point and means literally nothing. Install base, again, doesn't really matter when you're getting beyond tens of millions of sales (which both platforms are at), and this has been demonstrated. You keep acting like this means something when it doesn't, and I clearly can't help you there.

Every game won't sell better with a growing install base. I gave you an example of "This is the Police". It's a Switch title that's out of print. It's not going to go back into print. It's never going to have more sales than what it has now. This is the case for most video games. They stop making physical copies of them within 2 years of release. You keep focusing on the exceptions.

It's a valid point because of the phrase I used. Let me highlight why you're wrong. "Sony first party titles are selling higher than most Nintendo IPs" Do you know what "most" means? it's different than "all". It means if you exclude the likes of "Pokemon, Animal Crosing, Mario Odyssey, Zelda BotW, Smash Bros" as you like to put it, you still get dozens of Nintendo IPs that will never come close to the sales of any of the titles I just mentioned.

I make perfect sense, you just don't understand me. You keep making the same silly arguments over and over and I keep putting them in their place. Perhaps this is a language barrier or something, but it's pretty clear at this point, you simply do not understand or are ignoring the meaning of what I am saying.



potato_hamster on 24 October 2018
Miyamotoo said:
On Resetera, few known insiders, said that that some big 3rd party games are on hold and some even cancelled because price/availability of bigger Switch carts,
it's definitely that problem affecting in some degree on 3rd party support for Switch. GTAV and CoD are games that were heavily hinted like some examples.

Saying that WSJ at end of last year reported that 64GB Switch carts are coming in 2019. and probably in same time prices of 32GB and 16GB carts will go down (apparently only one game until now used 32GB cart), so we should have more big 3rd party games next year.
WSJ also last year reported that big 3rd party Japanese games will start showing in 2019. because of time when work on them started (at end of 2017. or early 2018.).

If you think for one second that Nintendo would allow the cancellation of CoD and GTA games on their platform over the production of 32/64 GB game carts, I have some swamp land in Florida to sell you. That is absolutely preposterous, and only the most gullible would believe such tripe.