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Forums - General Discussion - Reverse Climate Change?

UAH satellite temperature for the lower atmosphere for last september 2018, only 0.14 degrees celsius above baseline.

A huge fall from the 0.54 degrees above baseline measured on september 2017:


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CuCabeludo said:
MTZehvor said:

I'm...reasonably confident the IPCC has never said that. They've been pretty consistently up front that predicting ice loss is extremely difficult, so I find it hard to believe they'd put forth a claim like that without heavily qualifying it. Do you have a source?

Also, I think you have the wrong type of "breaking." The ice sheets in Greenland are quite literally "breaking," as in, temperature is rising to the point where they're breaking apart.

The 2018 line of arctic sea ice thicknes, in black, compared to previous years. Actual data collected, not computer model.

 

Well, first and foremost, it's not "record levels" of ice if there was a higher level just four years ago.

Secondly, if you're going to reference DMI, you might as well toss in this graph too:

Volume of ice is, at least in areas that are usually firmly frozen over, is usually viewed secondly to Ice Extent (i.e. the portion of the region with a certain concentration of ice). The reason being that, at least initially, results of warming causes ice to break off and float around rather that instantly melt. This is why the volume (concentration) of ice stays relatively consistent, at least initially.

And the SIE (Sea Ice Extent) has been dipping noticeably over the long term; well over two SDs away from where it was between 83-00, so this is almost certainly not a change due to any sort of random chance. 



CuCabeludo said:

Human-made global warming is a hoax.

It's not.
The general scientific consensus (97%) is that it is a real fundamental thing.
https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

Don't be that guy who is a science denier.

The real debate is the extent of human-made climate change.

fatslob-:O said:

The vast majority of life can still adapt. Most simple lifeforms like bacteria, protists, fungi, and plants aren't going anywhere anytime soon since they are much less sensitive to climate conditions. Most of the animals that already have a conservation status classified as domesticated or least concern will still likely have the same status as they did before 100 years later ...

Simpler organisms will of course be fine.
Depending on region though, it's hard to say what species will be impacted... I would imagine the arctic regions for example would suffer most.

fatslob-:O said:

It's a pretty huge stretch of a scenario though since we'd have to at least find 10x higher fossil fuel reserves to burn before it remotely becomes a problem because right now at our current level we're still under the optimum level of CO2 concentrations for plant life respiration ... 

So far from the NASA data, there's no panic or alarm of large patches of land becoming less arable ... 

You don't need to burn 10x fossil fuels for there to be an accompanying increase.
Remember... As temperatures increase, massive amounts of CO2/Methane etc' is released from Oceans and Ice, Trillions of tons.

Water vapor in the earths atmosphere will also increase which adds to it.

It's an exponential increase.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/greenhouse-gases.php?section=watervapor
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/OceanCarbon


fatslob-:O said:

I'm not sure if we can just make a simple quantifiable statement that there is an "exponential increase in damage" because there are other life forms that have benefited so far from increased temperatures such as plants ... 

Also, how can you prove that your example isn't an isolated case ? I realize that some hot and inhospitable areas such as several patches of the sub-saharan desert and some middle eastern territories but for the most part much of Earth seems to be getting greener ...

Of course some species will thrive, speciation will be on the decline however as many more species succumb to significantly changing environments as their evolutionary adaptations are no longer relevant.

fatslob-:O said:
While Venus's case is extreme, the IPCC's pessimistic projection so far is 2 degrees celsius so you might want to cut your example by say a factor of 3 and do note that most of this warming will occur in colder regions rather than already hot regions like Australia as a consequence of the 2nd law of thermodynamics ... (Venus, I think in our entire solar system is the only planet of exhibiting a runaway greenhouse effect since Mercury which is even closer to the sun doesn't have a thick enough atmosphere to create the effect)

We don't need the Earth to be like Venus for it to be inhospitable.
Life is actually very fragile.


fatslob-:O said:

China is already mostly done with it's industrial revolution according to the US BLS. They're soon going to be richer than both Turkey and Russia per capita since their economies aren't that advanced. The former's bet was to get into the EU single market and the latter's bet on oil but so far it hasn't worked out for both of them. The next likely industrial centers are going to be Africa and India since their still relatively unindustrialized ...

I think she still has more room to go yet. Interested to see how much growth China can still push on this front though.

fatslob-:O said:

As far as the risk of arctic regions releasing more emissions, most of the greenhouse gases aren't trapped at the arctic's surface. It's under the deep ocean where it's not likely to reach out of the water and is instead consumed by microbes ...

If it's all melted, it's all melted.

fatslob-:O said:

As it stands, there are currently not strong enough factors to support a "climate change feedback" AKA "runaway greenhouse effect" like we see on Venus. Sure it'll get undeniably warmer but let's be rational and drop the fear mongering of entertaining the possibility of a rapid uncontrollable increase in temperature for reasons such as not receiving enough solar energy or having an extremely thick atmosphere ...

No one is claiming for a Venus effect though? Nor is it needed for things to become unteniable on our own little ball hurtling through space anyway.


fatslob-:O said:

There's not that much fossil fuel to be extracted from the arctic as far as past estimates suggest. It would maybe add a couple of years in our current reserves ? Really the biggest market for warming the arctic would be inhabitation in general ...

There is a ton also in Antarctica.
It's not just the North Pole we need to account for you know.

https://www.asoc.org/component/content/article/9-blog/1184-the-antarctic-oil-myth



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Pemalite said:

You don't need to burn 10x fossil fuels for there to be an accompanying increase.

Remember... As temperatures increase, massive amounts of CO2/Methane etc' is released from Oceans and Ice, Trillions of tons.

Water vapor in the earths atmosphere will also increase which adds to it.

It's an exponential increase.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/greenhouse-gases.php?section=watervapor
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/OceanCarbon

Most of the trapped greenhouse gasses in deep water ice isn't going to see the atmosphere ... 

As it is, the worst case scenario so far seems to suggest a 2 degree celsius warming since most of our recoverable fossil fuel reserves will be depleted in 50 years ...

Pemalite said:

We don't need the Earth to be like Venus for it to be inhospitable.

Life is actually very fragile.

While that's true what's not valid is arguing that Earth will face a similar effect of runaway climate change ... 

I don't think you understand the magnitude of emissions needed to actually trigger such an effect. For reference, not even having all of the glaciers melting and burning all of our carbon sources is close to enough ... 

Pemalite said: 

If it's all melted, it's all melted.

No one is claiming for a Venus effect though? Nor is it needed for things to become unteniable on our own little ball hurtling through space anyway.

@Bold Are you sure ? "And even when we stop emitting, temperatures will continue to rise as our oceans and arctic regions continue to release more CO2 due to the warmer temperatures."

It sounds as if you're to lead us into fear mongering that there will be no potential stop to temperature rises even though you said "You should probably take a look at what the effect of almost 2 trillion tons of CO2 will do when our arctic regions permafrost continues to decline... To put that into perspective, that would be like doubling our current carbon levels in the Atmosphere which is already very high." ...

Sounds like we have a bounded amount (3x current) of realistically releasable sources of carbon so what'll be ? An incoming armageddon of uncontrollable rise in temperatures or no runaway climate change ? Ignoring Venus you can't have it both ways since their pretty much mutually exclusive ...  

Pemalite said: 


There is a ton also in Antarctica.

It's not just the North Pole we need to account for you know.

https://www.asoc.org/component/content/article/9-blog/1184-the-antarctic-oil-myth

Yeah, there's geopolitical issues to taking advantage of Antarctica since just about every nation signed a treaty to not exploit the territory ... 

Don't have to worry about that for now ... (potential WW3 would be more of a concern than climate change)



CaptainExplosion said:

Would it help if we planted new forests, reduced our garbage output, used more renewable energy sources, invested further into water bottles and re-hydration stations, etc?

Of cours it would help to at least slightly improve the problem. But that alone is far from enough - those are the kinds of solutions that somewhat naive SJW are propagating, believing that their fellow citizens needed to only change a few minor habits and everything would be fine. The kind of people who'd even believe that China is to blame for climate change because they are polluting the air like no other country...

CaptainExplosion said:

I try my hardest to help out, I'm even trying to use lights that are more energy efficient. What else can we do?

Why didn't you just mention that upfront? The earth is saved, you're using energy-efficient lightbulbs!



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Climate change is a fact. It's always been changing, ever since Earth got climates It was colder during the ice age, warmer when the dinosaurs roamed the Earth. It's constantly changing, so the belief that without us it wouldn't change is ridiculous A couple hundred years ago they were growing vine in my country, but it's too cold for it today Climate changes, there's nothing we can do about it, it'll change either way, one way or another

Plus, I sure as heck wouldn't mind if it got a couple degrees warmer in my country Especially in that bloody winter season.



Wii U is a GCN 2 - I called it months before the release!

My Vita to-buy list: The Walking Dead, Persona 4 Golden, Need for Speed: Most Wanted, TearAway, Ys: Memories of Celceta, Muramasa: The Demon Blade, History: Legends of War, FIFA 13, Final Fantasy HD X, X-2, Worms Revolution Extreme, The Amazing Spiderman, Batman: Arkham Origins Blackgate - too many no-gaemz :/

My consoles: PS2 Slim, PS3 Slim 320 GB, PSV 32 GB, Wii, DSi.

No need to always attach politics to climate change,outside of that whole back and forth its also a scientific term and fact.



I wouldn't reverse it. I'd accelerate it. Paving the way for the extinction of the human race is an honour.



fatslob-:O said:

Most of the trapped greenhouse gasses in deep water ice isn't going to see the atmosphere ... 

Not all CO2 is in ice.
Allot of CO2 is on the surface of our Oceans, as they warm, they release stored CO2.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification

fatslob-:O said:

As it is, the worst case scenario so far seems to suggest a 2 degree celsius warming since most of our recoverable fossil fuel reserves will be depleted in 50 years ...

People have been forecasting peak oil for over a century, it still hasn't happened yet, we keep finding more... And we keep making our current reserves go farther. I.E. Ethanol.
Plus we can grow oil.

2'C warming is a massive increase, don't let anyone tell you otherwise... As someone who works in multiple emergency services agencies, I will hate to see the ramifications of that.

fatslob-:O said:

While that's true what's not valid is arguing that Earth will face a similar effect of runaway climate change ...

Which is what I am not suggesting.

fatslob-:O said:

@Bold Are you sure ? "And even when we stop emitting, temperatures will continue to rise as our oceans and arctic regions continue to release more CO2 due to the warmer temperatures."

It sounds as if you're to lead us into fear mongering that there will be no potential stop to temperature rises even though you said "You should probably take a look at what the effect of almost 2 trillion tons of CO2 will do when our arctic regions permafrost continues to decline... To put that into perspective, that would be like doubling our current carbon levels in the Atmosphere which is already very high." ...

Sounds like we have a bounded amount (3x current) of realistically releasable sources of carbon so what'll be ? An incoming armageddon of uncontrollable rise in temperatures or no runaway climate change ? Ignoring Venus you can't have it both ways since their pretty much mutually exclusive ...

Positive.
As temperatures rise, more CO2 is emitted from Oceans and Ice... More water is evaporated which is one of the largest culprits of the Greenhouse effect.
I am saying we will have an exponential increase, not a never ending one that feedbacks on itself.

fatslob-:O said:

Yeah, there's geopolitical issues to taking advantage of Antarctica since just about every nation signed a treaty to not exploit the territory ... 

Don't have to worry about that for now ... (potential WW3 would be more of a concern than climate change)

Considering I live in one of the closest inhabited cities to Antarctica... It's certainly a worry about my region becoming geopolitical and exploited.
Already oil companies are attempting to drill in one of the most pristine waters in the world which is in my backyard.

CaptainExplosion said:
Immersiveunreality said:
No need to always attach politics to climate change,outside of that whole back and forth its also a scientific term and fact.

Unfortunately a lot politicians tend to stand in the way of environmentalism.

Any politician that goes against Science, should honestly not be a Politician.



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Pemalite said:

Not all CO2 is in ice.
Allot of CO2 is on the surface of our Oceans, as they warm, they release stored CO2.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification

From what you linked, the ocean is a carbon sink rather than a net carbon producer. The ocean acidification phenomenon is down to the observation that the ocean absorbs carbon ... 

Pemalite said:

People have been forecasting peak oil for over a century, it still hasn't happened yet, we keep finding more... And we keep making our current reserves go farther. I.E. Ethanol.
Plus we can grow oil.

2'C warming is a massive increase, don't let anyone tell you otherwise... As someone who works in multiple emergency services agencies, I will hate to see the ramifications of that.

Ok this time it's for real and here's a graph showing it ...

Most reasonable current estimates have oil production peaking well before 2030 and that's being pretty conservative given past estimates didn't have all that advanced mechanical extraction technology like we see today so we're arguably close to hitting a physical and financial limit to petrochemical extraction but what's more is that there's now good reason to believe so more than ever ...  

Producing ethanol through biological means is hardly financially viable either. At that point electric vehicles become more attractive but we won't even have enough lithium reserves so that every family will be able to have one ... 

The 2'C warming will mostly be down to cold climates since we have an atmosphere to regulate temperatures around the earth so there's not much reason to believe that already warm climates will see much more discomfort at all. The warming will be vastly beneficial since huge landmasses like Canada and Russia will become more habitable so in the end we're getting more arable land than we are losing them ... 

Pemalite said: 

Positive.

As temperatures rise, more CO2 is emitted from Oceans and Ice... More water is evaporated which is one of the largest culprits of the Greenhouse effect.
I am saying we will have an exponential increase, not a never ending one that feedbacks on itself.

Define "exponential" ? Is it with respect to the temperature increases or CO2 levels ? If it's the former, nobody is measuring temperature increases "exponentially" even if CO2 levels are increasing exponentially, at best temperature increases will be linear in that case ... 

If CO2 levels are increasing linearly then temperature increases will be "logarithmic" ... 

Pemalite said: 

Considering I live in one of the closest inhabited cities to Antarctica... It's certainly a worry about my region becoming geopolitical and exploited.

Already oil companies are attempting to drill in one of the most pristine waters in the world which is in my backyard.

That "city" is probably recognized as part of Australia's sovereign territory by the international diplomatic community. The same cannot be said of Antarctica itself ...

Pemalite said: 

Any politician that goes against Science, should honestly not be a Politician.

The vast majority of politicians we see today go against science. The political right is an offender in all sorts of areas (climate/abiogenesis) while the political left is a massive offender in biology. (particularly studies regarding genetics) It's all too laughable that liberals will combat theoconservatives with the basis of evolution but when someone more educated about the subject themselves try to educate them on the "consequences" or "ramifications" it has especially on human populations they are in absolute denial about it undermining the principles of evolution itself. It's OK to cross lines with theoconservatives but apparently it's somehow too sacred to apply it to humans in which case even the neo-nazi's are sadly more scientifically correct than them in that specific area ... 

You also see the Green's being devout anti-nuclear energy ... 

The only remotely successful technocracy we see in this world is China which is hardly desirable to the current western liberal democracy. Scientists do not want to be bogged down in shit like "consensus" or "democracy" so the first thing they do when they are in political power is to consolidate it with an autocracy in which case such a philosophy can only thrive in the absence of rule of law which is rife with human rights violations. It may seem paradoxical but for a free republic like a democracy to thrive, it's that all thoughts must be represented and respected including ignorance ... 

If you want a solid technocracy then you must take the other pill known as an autocracy for it to be effective otherwise the former will be easily undone with democracy ...