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Wall Street Journal Japan Reports A New Switch Model Will Release In The Second Half Of 2019

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wall Street Journal Japan Reports A New Switch Model Will Release In The Second Half Of 2019

Jumpin said:
JEMC said:

People have been inducted to believe that they need a smartphone, that they are a necessity. Consoles aren't. To think that you can successfully apply the same business model of smartphones to consoles is wishful thinking. Plus, consoles are designed to last for years, until the next gen comes out, while smartphones can last three or four years, and that's if the battery doesn't die before than that.

If the PS4 Pro and XboxOneX have taught us something, is that console revisions increase sales, but don't move as many units as completely new machines, and the reason is simple, most people don't buy a new machine to play the same games that they do on their actual machines. Sooner or later, you need to break the cycle and launch a new machine with games that can't be played on the older model(s).

Lastly, if you're afraid of what could happen to Nintendo when launching a new machine, they can simply do what most third parties have done this gen: launch cross-gen games. With a strong line up of exclusive games like a new Zelda or proper Mario, paired with smaller titles for both machines, Nintendo can minimize that danger and keep the income high until the install base is high enough to sustain the business by itself.

You're wrong from the premise, and we have multiple cases.
GBA > GBA SP
DS > DS Lite

Both showed cases of people upgrading and also a market expansion.
I think you're underestimating the market of people who will pay money to upgrade their hardware and those more likely to pay money to buy it in the first place if it reaches levels of satisfaction. It is all about making the successor compelling, and a simple "half gen upgrade for 4K TVs" isn't as compelling a sell as a Switch gen 2, Switch gen 3, etc... Especially when Switch 2 and 3 are serving an obvious demand with more power, longer battery life, and/or different sized screen; meanwhile there wasn't much interest for the "more power for 4K TV Xbone or PS" product. Additionally, a hard reset on the product means those "half gen" consoles are halfway through the lifespan. Meanwhile, for the iOS model that platform has no end date, just upgrades to the hardware and software versions. A Switch iterative generation means you're buying the first or second most up to date hardware for a platform that isn't going to die in a few years.

I'm sorry but your post seems to contradict itself a bit. First you tell me I'm wrong in my assumption by citing the GBA and DS revisions, but then you go on saying that: "a simple "half gen upgrade for 4K TVs" isn't as compelling a sell as a Switch gen 2, Switch gen 3, etc... Especially when Switch 2 and 3 are serving an obvious demand with more power, longer battery life, and/or different sized screen", which is the same as saying that a Switch Pro won't be enough for consumers that will, instead, hope for a new console.

About the examples provided that did work, I won't comment on the GBA => GBA SP because I didn't follow the market as much then, but the DS to DS Lite is, sorry to say, bullsh!t. First of all, the original (and ugly) DS console was in the market for only a year and 4 months before being replaced by the same spec'ed DS Lite, the DS launched in November 2004 and the DS Lite came out in March 2006, and endeing production in 2007. It was the DS Lite model the one that was available through most of the life of the DS family, obviously being able to sell more units. And on top of that, the DS Lite was cheaper from the start, $150 vs $130, and took advantage of the launch of Pokemon Diamond and Pearl as well as the explosion of casual games like Brain Training and such.

There were a lot of other factors in place to make the DS Lite sell better than just being a new model, and the launch of he DSi Lite proved that.



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The transition can be changed, some people are too entrenched with traditional "rules" as if none of them can be bent or broken. It reminds of discussions of the NX/Switch on this board too where you'd explain the hybrid concept and the person would say "yeah but how's the standalone home console NX supposed to work then?".

Just because you have a Switch Pro, and even if it can play some games the previous model cannot, doesn't mean the previous model is just immediately worthless and goes into the garbage.

You could have a situation for example for example you have 200 Switch games release in 2020 ... lets say 15 of those are Switch Pro only all from third parties. Only specific titles that can't possibly be ported to the older Switch ... Kingdom Hearts 3, current Call of Duty, RE2 Remake, etc. No Nintendo games are Switch Pro only. You still have 185 games coming to the OG Switch. In 2021, maybe that number increases a bit to 20-25 3rd party games only for Switch Pro. 2022, number ramps up again and maybe Nintendo makes their first Switch Pro only title then. That's fair IMO. 

And people upgrade their smartphone every year or two because they WANT to, not because they need to. The fact is today is not the 1980s anymore. People love to buy new stuff, it makes them feel good. Unboxing videos get millions of views. An iPhone 4 from six years ago can do most anything the new iPhone can, you don't *need* to have it, it's a want. And I'm pretty sure the XBox One X is the lead XBox SKU now, for PS4, the Pro is probably 30% of their sales, but that's very lucrative because they apparently make more money on the Pro model than the regular model.

Nintendo will want those revenue streams. The Switch is simply in a curious spot tech wise because if you double or triple the Switch chip like the PS4 Pro or XB1X, suddenly PS4 ports become much more doable, it's just right at the cut off point.

I also don't think going forward there will ever be just "one" Switch model once this new one arrives. There will always be two, one high end and one cheaper lower end, and it will keep cycling that way, the high end model will move down to the low end spot after 3 years or so with a new high end model taking the $300-$350 price point tier (which makes Nintendo more money). The 3DS currently is just a placeholder for the lower price Switch, once that is out, 3DS is phased out, but a new higher end Switch then takes over the top end spot.



^Erm... in your scenario, third parties will be the last ones to jump to Switch Pro only titles, not the first ones. And it won't be because they won't like the extra power, because it's obvious they would love it, but because of the lower install base. Unless of course you expect the Switch Pro to sell as much if not more than the regular (and by then cheaper) Switch, but we both know that this won't be the case.

Also, now that you mention the discussions before the revival of the Switch, weren't you the one saying that there would be several Switches of several dimensions to catter the smartphone and tablet users? Because that hasn't happened, unless you expect that Switch Pro to be the tablet like model.



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JEMC said:
^Erm... in your scenario, third parties will be the last ones to jump to Switch Pro only titles, not the first ones. And it won't be because they won't like the extra power, because it's obvious they would love it, but because of the lower install base. Unless of course you expect the Switch Pro to sell as much if not more than the regular (and by then cheaper) Switch, but we both know that this won't be the case.

Also, now that you mention the discussions before the revival of the Switch, weren't you the one saying that there would be several Switches of several dimensions to catter the smartphone and tablet users? Because that hasn't happened, unless you expect that Switch Pro to be the tablet like model.

The Switch already is a tablet like device. 

Nintendo could court 10-12 third party titles a year. They don't need every third party title, but you don't want to be missing too many of the top tier IP and what happens if the next Fortnite craze is something that requires a PS4/XB1 tier performance, you're shit outta luck then. If they could get Call of Duty, Kingdom Hearts, RE2 Remake, into the Switch ecosystem and a few others it would be worthwhile and those games are waiting for Switch owners any time they are ready to move on up rather than starting a library from 0 again. 

The hard "reset" generation setup sucks anyway, it burns Nintendo about 50% of the time. 50% of their hardware transitions since the SNES days have ended in failure or dissapointment (ie: Wii to Wii U, even DS to 3DS, N64 to GameCube). 

That's an insane business policy to reset to 0 like that every 5-6 years with a 50% chance you're going to lose a huge chunk of your audience. No other business would find that acceptable. 

Changing the way hardware models are offered and redefining it is important for Nintendo, now more than ever, because they don't have two systems to fall back on either. If for whatever reason the fickle audience doesn't like Switch 2 and you've 100% commited to the old hardware refresh set up ... you're 100% fucked because you have nothing to fall back on unless you want to be a smartphone app company. Too risky. Embracing a different model that's more like Apple is simply the better route to go. 

Some consumers will complain but they'll be a small minority. At some point you have to look out for the best interests of your company, not slavishly obeying the old "well I expect 6 full years of content" crowd, like some fat guy at an all you can eat buffet who still isn't happy after eating 30 pounds of food. That consumer is not going to be there to bail you out when things go tough they'll just be like "tough, I don't feel like buying a GameCube or Wii U or 3DS", they risk nothing, you take all the risk as the company, every time you change generations the traditional way, that needs to change. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 13 November 2018

Marth said:
Pretty sure this will be a Switch Lite that releases in sync with the mainline Pokemon and Animal Crossing game.

I would be interested to know why you are sure ?



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KazumaKiryu said:
Marth said:
Pretty sure this will be a Switch Lite that releases in sync with the mainline Pokemon and Animal Crossing game.

I would be interested to know why you are sure ?

Probably because those franchises are associated with handhelds so a revision that caters to the more handheld centric audience would be a good fit to release alongside those games.



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KazumaKiryu said:
Marth said:
Pretty sure this will be a Switch Lite that releases in sync with the mainline Pokemon and Animal Crossing game.

I would be interested to know why you are sure ?

Well, to me it would make the most sense.

A Switch Lite with a bigger focus on portability.
Pokemon and Animal Crossing are franchises that have their biggest fanbases on handheld platforms.
We know that those two will get a new entry in the series in 2019.
Also both are very popular in Japan, the region that prefers handheld by a mile.
And the Switch has way more potential as a handheld then as a console imo.

So it would just be the best course of action to release a more portable Switch in line with those games and maybe even bundle it.
Cut the dock and make it a bit cheaper and you have a sales monster.



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