So you can't name an example, OK. And by your logic, both psp and vita are home console because they can plug into tv. Birds are living animals, planes are not. See the problem with your logic? 

Because the West love home console more so Nin advertise it as a home console on the go but a portable in Japan. With your logic, psp and vita definitely are home consoles.

Nin doesn't see them as directly competing because Switch is not a home console. If it is a home console, they will have to directly compete with Sony/MS, no matter what features it have.

Neither system is that expensive is a correct statement, but when you have two buy two in a year, plus games and whatever, then it makes less sense to think it's the 2017 PS4/BX1 buyers who rapidly adopted Switch.

"PS/Xbox owners who are early adopters have likely already picked up the Switch because if they are early adopters, they will have bought it early in its life cycle."
If by this you mean early PS4/XB1 adopters, then i agree. I do see them being the main Switch buyers.

"Switch will be at that point when PS5/Xbox 2 release at full price making it a great buy for those waiting for the new consoles."
Isn't a 300$ console with a great concept and 4 system sellers in a year a proposition like we haven't really seen?
To me, what you expect to see in 2019 is what is already happening now.

Adoption rate for PS4 and XB1 surprised even developers.
Consumers no longer need to wait for that specific situation to adopt new consoles. Actually, XB1 is having it's best year in 2018 and PS4 peaked last year.

Will Switch last 8 years or more as 3DS did? Will it get the same support? We don't know.
Last time i checked 3DS was outselling Switch in it's second year on the market.

Where do those 70% come from? Old or new adopters of PS4 and XB1?
I think the most likely scenario is old adopters given the fact that they are in 80+ million.
Which leave the 30% for "virgin" owners. And after the amazing year of 2017 with no competition in sight, isn't that a small number?

And it's because of that reason that i think that fending off PS5 and XB2 won't be as easy as people make it to be.
The fact that they are different doesn't garantee success. We don't even know what PS5 and XB2 will bring to the table or how their pricing will be. Not to mention what games will come with it.

All i'm doing is speculating. It's fine if you don't agree.

"And by your logic, both psp and vita are home console because they can plug into tv"

No they are not, even if they plug to a TV. And that's exactly it: sharing similarities to X doesn't make you equal to X.
That's what i tried to show with the example i gave.

And if we turn your example the other way around you are actually agreeing with me.

"Nin doesn't see them as directly competing because Switch is not a home console."
I was speaking about 3DS and Switch. 

Switch Zelda comercial before the console was out. See exactly how they start and end: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvv-fIRAaao
Mario Odyssey. See how they end the comercial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1j1Gdogrp94
Mario Tennis Aces. Same as above: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5r4ZPnaNWEo
Pokémon Let's go. A handheld game yet it even starts at home: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9KY2tM7cCw

There's no difference between Japan and the rest of the world.

MS/Sony are quite predictable; their next systems will almost certainly just be the exact same thing but with more power, just as PS4/Xbone are basically just PS3/360 with more power.

To cripple Switch sales, they would have to offer something that directly cannibalizes Switch's buyer base, and since they can't offer Nintendo exclusives, that leaves the system's other selling point; it's hybrid nature. And I think it's highly unlikely either company would pursue a rival hybrid when they have built their business around the traditional home console model.

I can agree with you that Switch is a HC which have the portable ability just like PSP/Vita.

Commercial of those games? Switch is a hybrid after all, it will have all Nin franchise, both home console and handheld.

Different or not, doesn't change the fact that Japan focus on handheld more and the West love gaming on TV.

Exhibit A - Switch is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS, and it's selling slower than its predecessors / It isn't

Nintendo Switch is Nintendos new core system and unifying console and mobile business in a way, while they invest in mobile gaming on iOS and Android. This will be the real 3DS successor. The Switch had no price cuts like the 3DS and is selling fine. The Switch is Nintendos console, while mobile gaming has changed effectively and transitioned to phones finally. Sony and every other gaming company is investing in mobile gaming on smartphones as well. Pure handhelds are dead.

Exhibit B - Nintendo continues to make smartphone games and their new CEO Furukawa wants to grow that business / like everyone else in the industry

Regardless how successful the Switch would have been, you can't ignore mobile gaming. EA, Ubisoft, Activision Blizzard, Bethesda, Square Enix, Nintendo and even Sony (https://www.thedrum.com/news/2016/09/05/sony-wants-aggressively-push-mobile-gaming-market-following-success-pokemon-go) are investing in mobile gaming. Nintendo has seen this transition between DS and 3DS and finally took good steps to fix their issues in this field.

Exhibit C - Nintendo's stock price has dropped by approximately 25% since March 2018 / who cares?

But you know that stocks are as high as during the DS/Wii era right now? Nintendos best time in it's history. Stocks are still three times higher than during Nintendos complete 3DS/Wii U era. Investors aren't gamers and Nintendo doesn't focus on investors anymore. They don't tell them everything about upcoming hardware, games and projects while other companys with yearly releases (Fifa, Call of Duty, Just Dance, World of Warcraft etc.) built their lineup with their ips around investors needs. Investors buy shares, when gamers buy tons of games and hardware. Focus on gamers, not on these financial jerks  is a good new philosophy from Nintendo => (Metroid, Animal Crossing, Smash, Lugigis Mansion, Fan Favorites and more coming to Switch)

Exhibit D - The 3DS was a better portable than Switch is / are you serious?

Switch is a better hybrid than 3DS was and actually runs full grown games in HD.

Exhibit E - The Wii U had better third party support than Switch / No!

Wii U had Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, Darksiders, Need for Speed, Madden, Tekken, Mass Effect, just to name a few. Switch has none of those and it doesn't look like that will change anytime soon, if ever. And most of them run like shit, while they released 6 month later with no additional features. Are you serious? Switch has ports third parties put effort into and which can be played on the go.
Diablo 3, Doom, Wolfenstein 2, Skyrim, Rocket League, Fortnite, Dark Souls, South Park, Star Link, Dragonball FighterZ and even Final Fantasy returns with many games to Nintendos platform. The Wii U had the worst third party support, because every bad port damaged the systems reputation and offered nothing worth buying.

Exhibit G - The best Switch games are Nintendo games / huh?

This irrefutable fact doesn't point towards a healthy software ecosystem. Quite the opposite, actually. It highlights that third parties aren't willing to invest in the platform. Yeah and that is actually the reason indies make tons of money on Switch, Third Parties that never supported Nintendo products for decades like Blizzard or bethesda start to make games and Squre Enix, Capcom, Bandai Namco and many more port their libraries and even offer (timed) exclusives for the system.

Exhibit H - Online multiplayer has been put behind a paywall on Switch

The history of paid online multiplayer on consoles is a history of console manufacturers who struggled to make profit via honest business. Whether you take Sega, Microsoft or Sony, it's always the same story. While only Nintendos own titles need to be behind the paywall. All other publishers can choose to stay free, like Fortnite did it. And it's cheap as fuck.

Conclusion

Nintendo Switch is a success in almost every way. You didn't even notice how they increased revenue on all accessories and each game by raising prizes, higher attach rates for games and accessories and cheap ports that sell more units than their initial releases (Mario Kart 8DX, Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze, Toad Treasure Tracker). Still no game bundled for free dispite Fortnite. 3DS attracted younger audiences with less cash, while the Switch audience is finally older and able to spend more money. Switch is almost a complete transition in Nintendos core market and audience. If this is not a success, I'm missing out on something.

Dude, you're proving my point by saying that the PS4 had its peak last year and Xbox One is having its peak this year. That's 3-4 years into their life cycle. Clearly a lot of people wait to buy new consoles. Not everyone will pick up two consoles in a year I agree and understand that, but there is no reason to assume that everyone will be early adopters and it will somehow hurt the Switch's sales.

Also, I have no idea when you checked because Switch has been outselling the 3DS (launch aligned) all year long. Switch is currently at 7.3 million for 2018 and 3DS was only 5.7 million at the same point in 2012. This is despite the 3DS getting a huge price cut early on.

Before Switch and the Pro/X i'd probably instantly agree with you.
But Switch is a new contender to their market. Although, not a proven direct competitor, it still is a serious threat.
Those 70%-30% might change in Switch's favour with time.

MS is betting a lot on paid subscriptions and that could pave the way for a different relationship between MS/Sony and their userbase.
Not to forget MS is trying, or will try, that monthly installment angle.

The hybrid concept is a system seller. But, for how long? Novelties like these eventually wear off.
It may be the case where when PS5/XB2 arrive it doesn't have that selling power it has now.

What i tried to show is that those commercials act the same way: first home console, then portability and in the end, Switch again as the home console. 
Marketing speaking, that's a clear message.

"Different or not, doesn't change the fact that Japan focus on handheld more and the West love gaming on TV."
Can't agree more.
Personally, i would love to see if Switch has made japanese gamers more TV friendly now that Switch allows for both Styles of play

"That's why consoles tend to peak in sales 2+ years after release."
PS4 peaked, as far we know, last year. Which means it peaked in it's 4th year while PS3 peaked in it's 6th year.
XB1 and XB360 are following the same path, respectively.

Although it's true that peaks happen after two years on the market, they also happen under normal circumstances and even then it's not obvious when they will happen.
Switch is anything but normal. Not in the way it entered the market, not to who it is being sold and who is buying it.
2019 could be the year where it peaks, as far as we know, as it's library instead of really growing over time, has already started really strong, Smash for 2018 and next year we will have Animal Crossing and Pokémon, along other titles. 
A 300$ price tag isn't a high price to pay for a device like Switch - especially when PS4 sold a lot with a 400$, and then a 300$, price tag.

If it's indeed old PS4 and XB1 buyers that are making for these sales and not new owners, it could very well happen that when it's time for new owners to think about somethig difderent, PS5 and XB2 will be either already out or around the corner.

For now, i'm not going to claim to Switch's is anything more than a "short" term victory.

"Clearly a lot of people wait to buy new consoles."
Not necessarily: PS3 and XB360 almost doubled their sales if we compare their first full year and peak year. And that's not the case for PS4 nor XB1 (in this case, it's even less accurate).
So, the idea that a lot of people wait is not that correct.

In your last paragraph you were speaking about Japan. I assumed that when you mentioned that Switch was ahead, you were referring to Japan, only.
Sorry.

By the time PS5/Nextbox arrive, Switch will be significantly cheaper, have accumulated a massive library of killer games, and have a monopoly on non-mobile portable gaming, all of which should easily offset the hybrid concept no longer being new. We'll be talking about a $200 Switch vs a probably $400 PS5, so in addition to being totally different products, they'll also be serving totally different price ranges.

@DélioPT

If we're looking for signs, how about these:
- No-one cares about 4K
- No-one cares about VR
- No-one cares about streaming games
- No-one cares about Bluray++
- Fortnite

Fortnite is the only one of the above that managed to stall PS4's and XB1's decline.
A game like Fortnite being the next big thing is a good sign for Nintendo.
More people have downloaded it on mobile devices than home consoles.
More people have downloaded it on Switch than XB1X/PS4Pro (educated guestimate) but this isn't suprising given that casual games involving dancing and pets are always more popular on Nintendo systems than on the strongest consoles.

The market has been telling Nintendo to combine their systems for the past 30 years. With the exception of CoD, every new/rebooted megahit of the past 2-3 generations has been either a mobile/portable game (PUBG, Fortnite, PokemonGo, Minecraft, NSMB) that didn't need high end graphics or had motion control (WiiSports/Fit/Kinect).

Just like with touchscreen, casual games on the DS, Nintendo has already seen which way the wind is blowing and embraced the tech that could bring on their own demise.

Nintendo is the only company that could make a success of a tablet in the era of Apple/Samsung.

All the signs are pointing to Nintendo doing amazing while people are questioning the necessity of 4K/VR ie the PS5/XB2.