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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is Nintendo Switch really a success?

RolStoppable said:
DélioPT said:

Why shouldn't I be concerned?
Is Switch sold as portable, perceived as such and getting games as if it is a portable? No. Even if it has the monopoly of that market it doesn't necessarily mean it will sell and have a shelf life as other portables.
Does Nintendo have another device to fall back to when Switch faces real competition from PS5 ad XB2? No.

They would be better off for the future - whatever that future entails - if it had the type of 3rd party games that make Sony and MS consoles, primary consoles.

Switch is sold as hybrid, perceived as such and getting games as if it is a portable. If you haven't paid attention, Switch is inheriting all the support the 3DS and Vita got without a problem. You answered your own question wrong. But most importantly, Switch is already tracking ahead of the 3DS and will grow the gap significantly in the next few months.

Are you insinuating that PS4 and XB1 aren't real competition? They are cheaper than Switch and have bigger game libraries to fall back on. Do you really believe that more expensive consoles with smaller game libraries will make Switch unattractive all of a sudden?

Your whole line of thinking is very similar to the concerns that were raised during the Wii era. Nintendo ended up listening and made the Wii U, and the market sent a crystal clear message that AAA third party games aren't a selling point for a Nintendo console. None of those third party games managed to sell more than one million copies. Wii U wasn't the only console where Nintendo placed importance on AAA third party content though; there was also the GameCube. A decade before the Wii U Nintendo had already received the same message from the market. Nintendo's worst selling consoles are the ones that pursued the games you argue they should pursue.

Do you have any sales data that supports any of the points you are making?

Very good post with totally logical points and facts, but he will continue to ignore all that (ignoring facts and logical points) while go around them with more points without any logic and any data, and he can do that for weeks, just to know. ;)



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Nah... it is a success. It´s doing well and the line-up of games for the near future seems very good.
If it reaches numbers similar to the 3ds (in lifetime sales), Nintendo will be pleased.



It's selling well even during slow seasons, it's second only to PS4, even managing to beat it a few weeks in a row, 3rd party support is good and growing and SW sales are in line with home consoles, so with the hybryd Ninty should enjoy a HW success that, Wii apart, it usually gets with portables, but eventually reaching an attach rate at home console levels. If this isn't a success, I don't know what else could be. Probably PS4 lifetime sales will be higher, but NS should anyway enter the Top 10 ever. Last, but not least, once again Ninty showed the way to go, this time for console makers that otherwise could succeed only in home or portable market, but can't, or can't anymore in both, and this getting, and making 3rd party devs get, a higher return on investments.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Alby_da_Wolf said:

It's selling well even during slow seasons, it's second only to PS4, even managing to beat it a few weeks in a row, 3rd party support is good and growing and SW sales are in line with home consoles, so with the hybryd Ninty should enjoy a HW success that, Wii apart, it usually gets with portables, but eventually reaching an attach rate at home console levels. If this isn't a success, I don't know what else could be. Probably PS4 lifetime sales will be higher, but NS should anyway enter the Top 10 ever. Last, but not least, once again Ninty showed the way to go, this time for console makers that otherwise could succeed only in home or portable market, but can't, or can't anymore in both, and this getting, and making 3rd party devs get, a higher return on investments.

OOOPS, I notice just now the author of the OP, I've been rolled!    



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


AngryLittleAlchemist said:
DélioPT said:

All those were born in home consoles.

Although Animal crossing is clearly found it's home on handhelds, we can't say for sure that the same won't happen on Switch.

Luigi's Mansion 2 sold really well and Fire Emblem had a sales spike on 3DS, but we haven't gotten home console versions to make the claim that they are mainly handheld titles.

We still haven't seen how the revamped Fire Emblem does on consoles and only now LM has a sequel on home consoles.
AC is pretty much a handheld title.

Lol acting like Luigi's Mansion and FE don't have results from the home console market.

I think you misunderstood me. I'm not taking away nothing from home consoles.

They do have results, but what we have seen is that both franchises did their best results on 3DS.
We now have to wait and see how the home console versions will do.

MasonADC said:
DélioPT said: 

Either way, the series I mentioned all were most popular on handhelds. What does it take to be considered mainly handheld title?

FE and LM were more popular on handhelds, so far.
There hasn't been a home console LM since the 3DS game and the same goes for FE.
We need to wait for the results to see how they fair on Switch. 



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NSW without COD is doomed. I predict NSW being replaced by Wii U2 with COD as launch title in 2019.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


zorg1000 said:
DélioPT said:

"How does the data show that it's not a primary console? That's a fact pulled right out of nowhere.
By the time PS5/XB4 release, Switch could potentially be in the $150-200 price range with a couple revisions and dozens of highly rated exclusives, $400-500 powerful consoles will not be direct competition, they will coexist just like Switch currently does with PS4/XBO.
"

If only 30% of US Switch buyers don't have a pS4/XB1 console; if sales for those systems are still the same or better, taking consideration that Nintendo sold, what, 15million in the first year, it's only natural to conclude that people don't see Switch as a priority and therefore, aren't stopping to buy a PS4/XB1 to get a Switch instead.

I doubt you'll see a console priced at 500$ anytime soon.
Even if Switch is at 200$ with dozens of exclusives (assuming they are all meaningful exclusives) why should that stop Switch from being hurt by new consoles, when at 300$, new concept and a bunch of system sellers weren't enough to have more people opt for a Switch instead of another system?

Consumers already showed that 400$ for a console is not a problem. They'll gladly pay it again if PS5 is a strong proposition as PS4 was.

What i'm saying over and over is this: despite all the efforts with Switch, Nintendo couldn't make people choose a Switch instead of a PS4 or XB1 and that's why neither consoles sales went down despite the massive sales of Switch.
Is that a good sign? No it's not. There should have been a bigger impact.

Your problem is that you constantly draw false conclusions to support your stance.

Sure, Switch didnt cause PS4/XBO sales to drop but who cares? I could turn it around and say PS4 in 2017 wasnt a primary console because despite having it's best year it couldn't stop Switch from having one of the best launch years in history. That statement would be equally silly because it draws a false conclusion with nothing to back it up.

The people who buy a $400+ console at launch are typically not the same people who buy a sub-$200 device that's ~4 years old.

I know $400 wont be an issue for PS5, it will sell great at that price, that however does not mean Switch cannot also do very well at $199 around the same time.

Just like Genesis did not stop NES from selling in 1989/1990 or Saturn/PS1 stop SNES in 1995/1996 or PS2 stop PS1 in 2000/2001 or PS3/360/Wii stop PS2 in 2006/2007 or PS4/XBO stop 3DS in 2014/2015, or Switch stop PS4/XBO in 2017/2018, PS5/XB4 will not stop Switch in 2020/2021.

Who cares?
So, not causing sales to go down and causing sales to go down mean the same thing to you?

You can turn things around. You'll be ignoring pretty much everything, but ok.

"The people who buy a $400+ console at launch are typically not the same people who buy a sub-$200 device that's ~4 years old."
It's true.
But at the same time, that situation in not the same when you have a console that is dominant or a console that's living off the dominant's market.
If the shift from PS4 to PS5 is as fast as it was from PS3 to PS4, then things might not go as one would expect, specially in the case of where a console like Switch is still to exposed to that "shifting" market.

I'm not saying with this that sales will fall of a cliff or that the blow will be really hard, but it might be the case where Switch's life cycle is substantially reduced. And when you are dependant on one console (no signs of that changing) then… things might not go so swiftly for Nintendo.

In other words, if we saw - or start seeing - Switch really building it's own market (stealing customers), i would be less concerned.

curl-6 said:
DélioPT said:

 

I don't deny that diversifying their lineup would be nice, but I'm really not seeing the next PS/Xbox as being a significant threat to Switch, for the same reason lions aren't driving vultures or hyenas to extinction, they occupy different ecological niches.

People buy PS/Xbox to play AAA third party blockbusters, but they buy Switch primarily for the flexibility/convenience of it's "play at home and on the go" premise and for the first party exclusives. That's why, as you say, PS4/Xbone sales were not affected much by Switch's arrival, because they're not in direct competition. PS5/Nextbox will similarly not be in direct competition, because those systems will take over the same niche PS4/Xbone currently fill.

It would be more than nice! If Nintendo wants to really put their foot on that market for good they can't rely on just 1st party games or paid exclusives of that kind - even if for the sole reason that Sony and MS would easily outbid them. That's why change needs to come from within.

I do agree that Switch is different enough to make itself a more than appealing product to Sony and MS users, but we shouldn't overlook how this success came to be.
Do you really believe if there weren't 80+ million PS4 and XB1s sold when Switch came out, that it would have had this level of success?

If the data we have show that, despite 15+ million Switches out there (2017), PS4 and XB1 could still act as if it was nothing, then it's safe to assume that if they aren't choosing Switch over PS4 or XB1 now, despite all the bells and whistles, then the same would happen if they were released around the same time or, that when PS5 and XB2 arrive, there's a real risk of that market simplying opting for the new consoles.

It's really a question of priorities.



DélioPT said:
zorg1000 said:

Your problem is that you constantly draw false conclusions to support your stance.

Sure, Switch didnt cause PS4/XBO sales to drop but who cares? I could turn it around and say PS4 in 2017 wasnt a primary console because despite having it's best year it couldn't stop Switch from having one of the best launch years in history. That statement would be equally silly because it draws a false conclusion with nothing to back it up.

The people who buy a $400+ console at launch are typically not the same people who buy a sub-$200 device that's ~4 years old.

I know $400 wont be an issue for PS5, it will sell great at that price, that however does not mean Switch cannot also do very well at $199 around the same time.

Just like Genesis did not stop NES from selling in 1989/1990 or Saturn/PS1 stop SNES in 1995/1996 or PS2 stop PS1 in 2000/2001 or PS3/360/Wii stop PS2 in 2006/2007 or PS4/XBO stop 3DS in 2014/2015, or Switch stop PS4/XBO in 2017/2018, PS5/XB4 will not stop Switch in 2020/2021.

Who cares?
So, not causing sales to go down and causing sales to go down mean the same thing to you?

You can turn things around. You'll be ignoring pretty much everything, but ok.

"The people who buy a $400+ console at launch are typically not the same people who buy a sub-$200 device that's ~4 years old."
It's true.
But at the same time, that situation in not the same when you have a console that is dominant or a console that's living off the dominant's market.
If the shift from PS4 to PS5 is as fast as it was from PS3 to PS4, then things might not go as one would expect, specially in the case of where a console like Switch is still to exposed to that "shifting" market.

I'm not saying with this that sales will fall of a cliff or that the blow will be really hard, but it might be the case where Switch's life cycle is substantially reduced. And when you are dependant on one console (no signs of that changing) then… things might not go so swiftly for Nintendo.

In other words, if we saw - or start seeing - Switch really building it's own market (stealing customers), i would be less concerned.


PS4/XBO sales not going down shows the exact opposite of what you are arguing. It shows that PS/XB and Switch are not direct competitors, they coexist.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

MasonADC said:

Either way, the series I mentioned all were most popular on handhelds. What does it take to be considered mainly handheld title?

FE and LM were more popular on handhelds, so far.
There hasn't been a home console LM since the 3DS game and the same goes for FE.
We need to wait for the results to see how they fair on Switch. 

But the Switch is a handheld and a home console. You can't use it to determine something like that. The best we can do is look at past results. 



DélioPT said:

curl-6 said:

I don't deny that diversifying their lineup would be nice, but I'm really not seeing the next PS/Xbox as being a significant threat to Switch, for the same reason lions aren't driving vultures or hyenas to extinction, they occupy different ecological niches.

People buy PS/Xbox to play AAA third party blockbusters, but they buy Switch primarily for the flexibility/convenience of it's "play at home and on the go" premise and for the first party exclusives. That's why, as you say, PS4/Xbone sales were not affected much by Switch's arrival, because they're not in direct competition. PS5/Nextbox will similarly not be in direct competition, because those systems will take over the same niche PS4/Xbone currently fill.

It would be more than nice! If Nintendo wants to really put their foot on that market for good they can't rely on just 1st party games or paid exclusives of that kind - even if for the sole reason that Sony and MS would easily outbid them. That's why change needs to come from within.

I do agree that Switch is different enough to make itself a more than appealing product to Sony and MS users, but we shouldn't overlook how this success came to be.
Do you really believe if there weren't 80+ million PS4 and XB1s sold when Switch came out, that it would have had this level of success?

If the data we have show that, despite 15+ million Switches out there (2017), PS4 and XB1 could still act as if it was nothing, then it's safe to assume that if they aren't choosing Switch over PS4 or XB1 now, despite all the bells and whistles, then the same would happen if they were released around the same time or, that when PS5 and XB2 arrive, there's a real risk of that market simplying opting for the new consoles.

It's really a question of priorities.

The fact their sales don't impact each other shows that they exist in separate niches that do not directly compete, and since PS5/Nextbox will almost certainly inherit the same niche as PS4/Xbone, Switch will remain unaffected. People will continue to buy PS/Xbox for the AAA blockbusters, and Switch for the flexibility the hybrid concept offers and the first party exclusives.

The only way the next PS/Xbox can significantly affect Switch is if those companies try to push Nintendo out of their niche by launching a competing hybrid, which is highly unlikely.