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Is Nintendo Switch really a success?

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Rol is this you[? someone must have hijacked the account.

Anyways, its too early to say the switch isn't a success. If anything the previous 18 months indicates that it is.

I'm more interested to see how it does over a 3 year period. Especially wht happens to it when the PS5 and XB2 is released. If by then it has gained enough mrket presence and relevance to be immune to all the fanfare and hype around the two new consoles. Espeically being that then the technical divide will be even greater than it is now. I'm curious to see if then nintendo will still maintain its hybrid stance or switch tunes to the switch being a portable first console. no pun intended.



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adisababa said:
It has horrible 3rd party support and honestly, sales have more or less started to stabilize/ flatline, there's no hype for the Switch at all. Nintendo's weak third party support and the Switch's inability to run high profile games this gen will only serve to hurt the console.

The switch will probably always play second fiddle to the other consoles simply because it will never get games like Anthem, Red Dead Redemption, Call of Duty, Battlefield, the next elder scrolls and Cyberpunk 2077. Those high profile games will never hit the Switch and will never be able to run on the Switch.

The Switch is fine for a Nintendo audience but it will never be beyond that because it simply cannot be that due to its hardware limitations. Heck the OG Xbox One ran the Black Ops 4 beta at 45 fps, it was struggling and that's one of the least demanding triple-A games right now. Imagine the switch lol. Don't need a repeat of Doom where it ran at 480p 20fps at times.

The Switch is just a Wii, a companion piece to an actual gaming console and that's fine, it's doing well enough.

You have been saying much of the same thing since the system launched and it has not proven to be true. The Switch has already gone beyond the "Nintendo audience" as 70% of its base consists of existing PS4 and Xbox One owners. As for the no hype statement, the system continues to sell very strongly and it is more or less kept pace with the PS4 in its second year, it has yet to have a price cut, and it came out on top this August and had the best July of the generation; none of that is indicative of console lacking excitement around it. 

While Switch is not getting AAAs, it has a strong library of first-party titles that are highly appealing in the market and that the other systems will not have, it has support of Japanese developers, it is getting decent AA support from third-parties, and it has become quite the target for indies. It is a very much an actual gaming console (despite your claims) that is offering something the other platforms simply do not, which is its portability. For people that primarily like to do heavy gaming on portables the Switch will become their main system, and for those that enjoy playing on portables in addition to gaming on stationary systems like PC/Xbox/PS then the Switch makes an excellent companion (much like 3DS, Vita, PSP, DS, GBA, etc) did before.



Intrinsic said:

I'm more interested to see how it does over a 3 year period. Especially wht happens to it when the PS5 and XB2 is released. If by then it has gained enough mrket presence and relevance to be immune to all the fanfare and hype around the two new consoles. Espeically being that then the technical divide will be even greater than it is now. I'm curious to see if then nintendo will still maintain its hybrid stance or switch tunes to the switch being a portable first console. no pun intended.

I dont really think PS5/XB4 will have much of an affect on Switch. Assuming they release in 2020/2021, by then Switch will probably have a price cut or two, a couple revisions and a large selection of exclusive titles (possibly a line of $20 Nintendo Selects).

Let's say by then Switch has separate handheld and micro console skus for $149-199, I really doubt the $399-499 powerful consoles will be direct competitors.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

I'm more interested to see how it does over a 3 year period. Especially wht happens to it when the PS5 and XB2 is released. If by then it has gained enough mrket presence and relevance to be immune to all the fanfare and hype around the two new consoles. Espeically being that then the technical divide will be even greater than it is now. I'm curious to see if then nintendo will still maintain its hybrid stance or switch tunes to the switch being a portable first console. no pun intended.

I dont really think PS5/XB4 will have much of an affect on Switch. Assuming they release in 2020/2021, by then Switch will probably have a price cut or two, a couple revisions and a large selection of exclusive titles (possibly a line of $20 Nintendo Selects).

Let's say by then Switch has separate handheld and micro console skus for $149-199, I really doubt the $399-499 powerful consoles will be direct competitors.

I recall NPD group's Mat Piscatella saying on ResetERA that the Switch does not appear to be competing directly with the PS4 and Xbox One in the United States. Whereas, most people are likely to pick one stationary system (so either a PS4 and Xbox One; hence those two are competing directly with each other), it seems like people are willing to purchase a stationary system plus the portable Switch. In fact, this is pretty much confirmed by the fact that 70% of Switch owners in the US also have a stationary system. Beyond that, Piscatella mentions that Switch is also picking up lapsed gamers as well. Since Switch is not competing directly with PS4 and Xbox One, I very much doubt that it will compete with their successors directly either.

For Nintendo, Switch is mainly a home console where its distinguishing feature is its portability. This view of the product works for Nintendo because they tend to take different approach to their hardware, particularly their home consoles (which have not for a while emphasized things like graphics, while placing more emphasis on novel ideas). However, I feel the market itself, particularly in the West, views the Switch as a portable console (much like 3DS, Vita, DS, PSP, etc), hence why they are purchasing the system alongside the stationary systems. Going with this perspective, Switch sales should not be impacted by the launch next-gen hardware. After all, portables like GB,GBA, DS, PSP, Vita, 3DS all launched shortly before or during a stationary console generation change (with the stationary consoles obviously being far more powerful than they were) and none were really impacted by the change. The only real challenge I can see new consoles (or any new high profile consumer product for that matter) will present will be for mind share, which Nintendo can maintain so long as they and their partners deliver with a steady flow of high profile games, price the system correctly as it goes through its life cycle, and continue correctly and continuously advertising the system. 



Miyamotoo said:
Shadow1980 said:

 

 

DélioPT said:

I don't think i mentioned failure of any kind.

What i said still stands: it hasn't gotten those big titles, despite the huge success of the console and the fact that in terms of age demographics and userbase, it's very similar to XB1 and PS4.
Not even announcements are being made.

Kinda makes you think how sustainable this success will be in the long run, doesn't it?
What will happen the next time there's no selling concept, no return to greatness for Zelda and Mario to sell the next HW or fend off the incoming PS5 and XB2? Wouldn't it be better if Switch already had that kind of library and be seen as a real alternative to Sony and MS?

Not having those BIG games might not seem much now, but when the times comes, it surely will make a difference! 

You again having hard time with logic..Wii also was huge succes and from all those games received only CoD, so buy your point Wii also wasnt succes because didnt recived those games at all, or because Switch still didnt recived those games yet.

Demographic of Switch and XB1/PS4 isn't same, 43% of Switch user base are 25-34 years people while for instance 18. years old or less represent only 20%. That's quite different compared to PS4/XB1 user demographic.

"Kinda makes you think how sustainable this success will be in the long run, doesn't it"!?  Not at all, how Switch will be more and more appealing device how is getting more releases and divers games, price point getting down and getting revisions. For instance how price point going down, kid user demographic will significantly be changed, same like for people that will buy Switch like secondary device.

You realy dont get Nintendo at all, they act and making different strategies compared to Sony/MS on purpose, they know they have best chanches for succes if they dont compete with them head to head thats they trying difrent things. You dont get that Switch is already alternative to PS4/XB1, PS4 and XB1 are very similar but Switch is console that actually quite different and offer direct experienced to them, that why plenty of PS4/XB1 owners bought it like secondary console. Offcourse it would be better that Switch has all 3rd party games, but they couldn't do Switch like hybrid console for $300 and to have for instance similar tech/power like XB1/PS4, in other words Switch will sell much better than that would Nintendo clone of PS4/XB1.

Those games would make some difference, but they are not key for success for Nintendo hardware like they are for MS/Sony consoles, Wii, DS, 3DS and now Switch are clear example of that. Switch is already success and it will be much bigger success (Switch will hardly sell less than 80m and easiily can do 100m+) despite those games.

"Wii also was huge success (…)"
Yes, it was. Not because it competed directly with PS3 and Xb360, but because they went after a completely different market.

I don't know what the age demographic is on a age by age basis. Still, i said similar, not equal. And the 70% of users for the US market prove that.

"Switch will be more and more appealing device how is getting more releases and divers games, price point getting down and getting revisions."
It's a possibility. But we are not talking about diversity for the sake of diversity, we are talking about meaningful diversity - you know, the CODs, GTAs, etc.etc. That's what most Switch users buy on their main systems.

Systems like PS2, SNES and other aren't remembered by the sheer quantity of titles. It's the exclusives, the big 3rd party titles that always come up first when talking about systems like those.

"You dont get that Switch is already alternative to PS4/XB1"
That's strange… i'd swear Switch had no impact on PS4 and XB1 and that only 30% of US Switch owners didn't have a PS4 or XB1.
We must have different visions on what "alternative" means.
Or maybe we don't: "that's why plenty of PS4/XB1 owners bought it like secondary console."  

I'm not asking for a clone. What i've always said is that 3rd party games are the reason consoles succeed… in a normal situation.
Nintendo knows this and if they decide to make a system that can't handle them, then they know the risks.
So far, Switch has enough reasons to correct that flaw, but what made Switch a success (all of this things) happen once in a blue moon and won't last forever.
As i said to you before: they have one a battle, but not the war.

Switch is a device like no other and it's also living off of whatever userbase PS4 and XB1 create.
I wouldn't be so quick to say this or that about Switch's future when it's real test still hasn't come: compete with new platforms.

zorg1000 said:
DélioPT said:

 

The logic you are using is pretty backwards.

The fact that a high percentage of Switch owners also own a PS4/XBO shows that PS4/XBO owners are buying a Switch for experiences not found on the systems they already own so missing out on the games you are speaking of is not going to affect Switch in any meaningful way.

Are you sure?


The data shows that Switch is not the primary console for the mass market; There are also enough users out there for Switch to keep living as a secondary console, but what will happen when Switch has to fight against new consoles?
Switch achieved all this but couldn't really change anything structurally for Nintendo.

If the market isn't willing to make Switch a primary console with all this, why should it do it when PS5 and XBnew arrive?
Wouldn't Switch put up a better fight if it also had the games it's userbase loves playing on other consoles?

It's easy to say that gamers are buying Switch because of what it offers that the others don't (i agree, btw). But in the end, it's been pretty much because there's no real alternative to Switch.



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DélioPT said:

(...)

It's easy to say that gamers are buying Switch because of what it offers that the others don't (i agree, btw). But in the end, it's been pretty much because there's no real alternative to Switch.

That's an especially funny statement. You recognize that Switch occupies a unique position and holds a monopoly in the portable market, and I am pretty sure you also recognize that that isn't going to change, yet you are still concerned about new PS and Xbox consoles posing a threat for Switch.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

DélioPT said:
 


zorg1000 said:

The logic you are using is pretty backwards.

The fact that a high percentage of Switch owners also own a PS4/XBO shows that PS4/XBO owners are buying a Switch for experiences not found on the systems they already own so missing out on the games you are speaking of is not going to affect Switch in any meaningful way.

Are you sure?


The data shows that Switch is not the primary console for the mass market; There are also enough users out there for Switch to keep living as a secondary console, but what will happen when Switch has to fight against new consoles?
Switch achieved all this but couldn't really change anything structurally for Nintendo.

If the market isn't willing to make Switch a primary console with all this, why should it do it when PS5 and XBnew arrive?
Wouldn't Switch put up a better fight if it also had the games it's userbase loves playing on other consoles?

It's easy to say that gamers are buying Switch because of what it offers that the others don't (i agree, btw). But in the end, it's been pretty much because there's no real alternative to Switch.

How does the data show that it's not a primary console? That's a fact pulled right out of nowhere.

By the time PS5/XB4 release, Switch could potentially be in the $150-200 price range with a couple revisions and dozens of highly rated exclusives, $400-500 powerful consoles will not be direct competition, they will coexist just like Switch currently does with PS4/XBO.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DélioPT said:
curl-6 said:

Exactly, Switch will fail without super-massive AAA games such as these, that's why it's selling worse than the Wii U, since the Wii U at least had COD.

I don't think i mentioned failure of any kind.

What i said still stands: it hasn't gotten those big titles, despite the huge success of the console and the fact that in terms of age demographics and userbase, it's very similar to XB1 and PS4.
Not even announcements are being made.

Kinda makes you think how sustainable this success will be in the long run, doesn't it?
What will happen the next time there's no selling concept, no return to greatness for Zelda and Mario to sell the next HW or fend off the incoming PS5 and XB2? Wouldn't it be better if Switch already had that kind of library and be seen as a real alternative to Sony and MS?

Not having those BIG games might not seem much now, but when the times comes, it surely will make a difference! 

Satire aside, taking on MS and Sony directly simply is not an option for Nintendo. That would be like vultures trying to compete with lions for the apex predator role on the savanna. They don't have the means to do so, their only viable path to success is to occupy a different niche. When they distinguish themselves from the competition, as with the DS, Wii, and Switch, that's when they thrive.

This idea that Nintendo can be a third juggernaut in the battle of the traditional consoles is a pipe dream that people need to let go.



nemo37 said:

However, I feel the market itself, particularly in the West, views the Switch as a portable console 

Huh? Your comment was very well thought-out, but I have to admit i am a bit confused by this statement. Doesn't particularly imply that something is mostly in relation to or applying to one specific set of regions rather than another set? That would mean that the Switch isn't seen as much as a portable in the East as it is in the West, which I think you can agree is fundamentally wrong. If anything, I'd expect the uninformed to say the opposite (not that you are uninformed), although data has pretty much confirmed that the Switch has a healthy relationship with handheld users worldwide.



DélioPT said:
Miyamotoo said:

 

You again having hard time with logic..Wii also was huge succes and from all those games received only CoD, so buy your point Wii also wasnt succes because didnt recived those games at all, or because Switch still didnt recived those games yet.

Demographic of Switch and XB1/PS4 isn't same, 43% of Switch user base are 25-34 years people while for instance 18. years old or less represent only 20%. That's quite different compared to PS4/XB1 user demographic.

"Kinda makes you think how sustainable this success will be in the long run, doesn't it"!?  Not at all, how Switch will be more and more appealing device how is getting more releases and divers games, price point getting down and getting revisions. For instance how price point going down, kid user demographic will significantly be changed, same like for people that will buy Switch like secondary device.

You realy dont get Nintendo at all, they act and making different strategies compared to Sony/MS on purpose, they know they have best chanches for succes if they dont compete with them head to head thats they trying difrent things. You dont get that Switch is already alternative to PS4/XB1, PS4 and XB1 are very similar but Switch is console that actually quite different and offer direct experienced to them, that why plenty of PS4/XB1 owners bought it like secondary console. Offcourse it would be better that Switch has all 3rd party games, but they couldn't do Switch like hybrid console for $300 and to have for instance similar tech/power like XB1/PS4, in other words Switch will sell much better than that would Nintendo clone of PS4/XB1.

Those games would make some difference, but they are not key for success for Nintendo hardware like they are for MS/Sony consoles, Wii, DS, 3DS and now Switch are clear example of that. Switch is already success and it will be much bigger success (Switch will hardly sell less than 80m and easiily can do 100m+) despite those games.

"Wii also was huge success (…)"
Yes, it was. Not because it competed directly with PS3 and Xb360, but because they went after a completely different market.

I don't know what the age demographic is on a age by age basis. Still, i said similar, not equal. And the 70% of users for the US market prove that.

"Switch will be more and more appealing device how is getting more releases and divers games, price point getting down and getting revisions."
It's a possibility. But we are not talking about diversity for the sake of diversity, we are talking about meaningful diversity - you know, the CODs, GTAs, etc.etc. That's what most Switch users buy on their main systems.

Systems like PS2, SNES and other aren't remembered by the sheer quantity of titles. It's the exclusives, the big 3rd party titles that always come up first when talking about systems like those.

"You dont get that Switch is already alternative to PS4/XB1"
That's strange… i'd swear Switch had no impact on PS4 and XB1 and that only 30% of US Switch owners didn't have a PS4 or XB1.
We must have different visions on what "alternative" means.
Or maybe we don't: "that's why plenty of PS4/XB1 owners bought it like secondary console."  

I'm not asking for a clone. What i've always said is that 3rd party games are the reason consoles succeed… in a normal situation.
Nintendo knows this and if they decide to make a system that can't handle them, then they know the risks.
So far, Switch has enough reasons to correct that flaw, but what made Switch a success (all of this things) happen once in a blue moon and won't last forever.
As i said to you before: they have one a battle, but not the war.

Switch is a device like no other and it's also living off of whatever userbase PS4 and XB1 create.
I wouldn't be so quick to say this or that about Switch's future when it's real test still hasn't come: compete with new platforms.

zorg1000 said:

The logic you are using is pretty backwards.

The fact that a high percentage of Switch owners also own a PS4/XBO shows that PS4/XBO owners are buying a Switch for experiences not found on the systems they already own so missing out on the games you are speaking of is not going to affect Switch in any meaningful way.

 

But Switch is also is aiming different market also in same time, because hybrid nature it aims handheld market also, thats huge difference compared to PS4/XB1.

Thats 70% of Switch owners in US that also have PS4/XB1, not 70% owners of all PS4/XB1 owners in US.

Are you serious!? Switch owners buying Switch on first place to play Nintendo games and exclusives, and those games on first place are reeason why so many PS4/XB1 owners buying Switch, only after that coming multiplatform games.

Plenty of things changed from SNES and PS2 on market, Nintendo changed big time after GameCube.

You do realise that only proves my point!? Fact is that Switch dont effect on PS4/XB1 sales, and PS4/XB1 sales dont effect on Switch sales proves that Switch alternative to PS4/XB1 and that can coexist on market despite point that they are also selling great, fact that 70% Switch owners in US also has PS4/XB1 also proves that.

"What i've always said is that 3rd party games are the reason consoles succeed… in a normal situation". But thats a point, Nintendo has much higher chances by releasing console that's not normal or typical, also last few generations 3rd party games are not reason for Nintendo succes, but you fail to see that. Switch is success, period, it only remains how big success will be, it has chances passing Wii numbers and becoming second best selling Nintendo hardware after DS.

But that a point, Switch will keep selling despite PS5/XB2 because even then it will be different like its different currently compared to PS4/XB1 and because of that plenty of PS4/XB1 owners also buying Switch.


Like I wrote you in other thread and like others point in this thread, your points or logic dont make sense at all, so I again dont see point continue with this and I will not reply to you any more.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 01 October 2018