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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: Switch on track to sell only 8 million systems this Fiscal Year

Megiddo on 20 August 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
KLXVER said:

Ok, so its not like an outrageous claim I guess.

The guy is an analyst though. Hes not going to take guesses. He just compares data with previous consoles in their second year, what the impact the last Smash and Pokémon game had on sales, the current rise and declines in sales etc...

Maybe he goes a bit "crazy", because if hes wrong, then its no big deal. But if hes right, then people go "wow, he was actually right" and his business expands.

Ever heard of holiday season?

Pachter basically just took Nintendos FY Q1 results (April to June), multiplied by 4 and rounded up. But with the 1-2-3 Falcon! Punch!! of Super Mario Party, Pokémon and Smash alone should suffice to give Q3 (October to December) well over 8M alone, nevermind what Q2 and Q4 will bring.

When someone refers to "tracking" that means that they are looking at concrete data and extrapolating it out. It does not refer to guesstimating how much it will sell for the holidays, etc. It's literally taking the slope of a line on a graph and continuing it. That's all it means.



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palou on 20 August 2018
contestgamer said:
Pachter has been right with MOST o his predictions for the past 10 years I've followed him. Sure, he's not right 100% of the time, but he's usually accurate, so this seems likely.

hmm, wanna make the bet? I'd give you 2 million in leg room, if you want to...

Let's say, you win if official shipped numbers are less than 10 mil? 



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

Bofferbrauer2 on 20 August 2018
Megiddo said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Ever heard of holiday season?

Pachter basically just took Nintendos FY Q1 results (April to June), multiplied by 4 and rounded up. But with the 1-2-3 Falcon! Punch!! of Super Mario Party, Pokémon and Smash alone should suffice to give Q3 (October to December) well over 8M alone, nevermind what Q2 and Q4 will bring.

When someone refers to "tracking" that means that they are looking at concrete data and extrapolating it out. It does not refer to guesstimating how much it will sell for the holidays, etc. It's literally taking the slope of a line on a graph and continuing it. That's all it means.

Yeah, but he says it in a way like a) it's set in stone and b) that there's no chance in hell to even come close to 20M, as if for reaching 20M Switch would have needed to sell about 5M in the last quarter. That's the problem with his "tracking", apart from totally ignoring things like he's taking the slowest quarter as basis for his hypothesis or that different quarters have different sales or releases like Smash affecting sales.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

h2ohno on 20 August 2018

And then you have this guy, who seems too extreme in the opposite direction. http://www.vgchartz.com/article/277836/analyst-nintendo-to-ship-25-million-switch-units-this-fiscal-year/



melbye on 20 August 2018

Being an analyst must be the easiest job in the workl, just look at some numbers say some crap and it doesn't matter if you are wrong



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Miyamotoo on 20 August 2018
zorg1000 said: 
Mr.GameCrazy said: 
So, Michael Pachter thinks the Switch will fall off the cliff? :P

Quickrick is Michael Patcher confirmed?

This. :D

 

contestgamer said: 
Pachter has been right with MOST o his predictions for the past 10 years I've followed him. Sure, he's not right 100% of the time, but he's usually accurate, so this seems likely.
p0isonparadise said: 
Nintendo Switch faces an uphill battle because of its "problematic" $299 price point and an "underwhelming" slate of launch titles, Wedbush video games analyst Michael Pachter has said.

Pachter says Switch hardware sales will reach one million in financial year 17, which ends March 31, although Nintendo has stated it will ship two million units in March. The following year Pachter forecasts Switch sales of five million units.

https://www.videogamer.com/news/pachter-gives-his-nintendo-switch-verdict

:D



Miyamotoo on 20 August 2018

If Patcher is trolling or what, Switch will sell around that number only in Q3 of this year.



Jigsawx1 on 20 August 2018

nah 10-11 million is absolutly possible



Bofferbrauer2 on 20 August 2018
Miyamotoo said:
If Patcher is trolling or what, Switch will sell around that number only in Q3 of this year.

From what I can tell, it seems Pachter lives under the opinion that power sells almost to the exclusion of everything else. Remember how he kept pushing for a powerful Wii HD? Thinking the PSP and PSV would sink Nintendos Handheld market?

In other words, the Switch is simply too weak for his taste and possibly is under the impression that this also counts for everybody else. For instance, in the video, he can't understand that someone would prefer the Switch over a PS4 unless exclusively for Nintendo games, but even then just as a secondary console.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

setsunatenshi on 20 August 2018
melbye said:
Being an analyst must be the easiest job in the workl, just look at some numbers say some crap and it doesn't matter if you are wrong

So why don't you do it then hotshot!? I can assure you he gets paid really well at his job. It's comical how people don't even understand the nature of his job but still feel they can do it better.