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Pachter: Switch on track to sell only 8 million systems this Fiscal Year

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: Switch on track to sell only 8 million systems this Fiscal Year

DonFerrari said:
Eagle367 said:
How does this guy have a job? A 5 year old can make better predictions and provide references to back them up. Hell switch most likely will sell 8 million in December

Man I think you are getting ahead of yourself with 8M in December.

You're right. I'm getting too excited. But 8mil in deDecemb has much more chance than 8mil the entire year considering smash and pokemon



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

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setsunatenshi said:
Mnementh said:

In the post I answered, you doubt they sell better the second year. And OK, if you have problems with the missing first months - how about financial years. So April 1st 2017 to March 31st 2018 vs. April 1st 2018 to March 31st 2019.... is that a better bet in your opinion? I bet Switch sells more in 2018/19.

I don't care if they sell more, I said they won't hit their expected targer and I'm pretty sure of that. So why do you want to lower the bar exactly?

 

If you want to be precious about it, yeah i have doubts they beat their launch year, but piracy will help a lot to offset a slow year in terms of big game launches. 

I didn't lower the bar, you did bring up that comparison: "Then you look at the software Nintendo is releasing this year, so go ahead and tell me where exactly do you justify it selling better than last year?"

That you don't want stay to your own statements is your thing.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Pachter is on the right track about the predictions being too high, however, it's highly plausible that a price drop will recompense for the over anticipation of holiday titles to push hardware alone. Especially with that leak (not saying I believe it) of a Switch Pro happening next year which stated that the current Switch will receive a price drop. But even leak aside - I'm pretty sure a price drop is the only way to sell 15m+ this fiscal.

I think 15 million is more likely unless they have a publicly impactful fall direct or something that produces unprecedented sales for a Q4 and Q1. Because so far Q2 and Q3 ending have only done slightly better than last year's numbers. And this doesn't include the explosive launch month of 2.7m+ sold (?) don't remember the figure exactly.



Eagle367 said:
DonFerrari said:

Man I think you are getting ahead of yourself with 8M in December.

You're right. I'm getting too excited. But 8mil in deDecemb has much more chance than 8mil the entire year considering smash and pokemon

Considering the only way I think Switch won't sell 8M this FY is end of the world (which would be lower than 1 in 1 billion), even if we think the chance of it selling 8M in December to be 0.001% or less it is still imensively more probable =p



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Mnementh said:
setsunatenshi said:

I don't care if they sell more, I said they won't hit their expected targer and I'm pretty sure of that. So why do you want to lower the bar exactly?

 

If you want to be precious about it, yeah i have doubts they beat their launch year, but piracy will help a lot to offset a slow year in terms of big game launches. 

I didn't lower the bar, you did bring up that comparison: "Then you look at the software Nintendo is releasing this year, so go ahead and tell me where exactly do you justify it selling better than last year?"

That you don't want stay to your own statements is your thing.

alright, so you latched on to the side point for the bet proposal, got it.

I'll clarify my personal view then, I'm 99% sure they won't hit their target, I'm doubtful they will sell better than  the same equivalent period of last year. In their favor is piracy and some possible lowering of price / holiday deals to quickly move to the new SKU.

I suppose it should sound a lot more reasonable now right?



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setsunatenshi said:
Mnementh said:

I didn't lower the bar, you did bring up that comparison: "Then you look at the software Nintendo is releasing this year, so go ahead and tell me where exactly do you justify it selling better than last year?"

That you don't want stay to your own statements is your thing.

alright, so you latched on to the side point for the bet proposal, got it.

I'll clarify my personal view then, I'm 99% sure they won't hit their target, I'm doubtful they will sell better than  the same equivalent period of last year. In their favor is piracy and some possible lowering of price / holiday deals to quickly move to the new SKU.

I suppose it should sound a lot more reasonable now right?

Well yeah. I agree it is difficult to hit their 20M target (that is shipping), I personally think that is 50/50, depending how well Pokemon and Smash move hardware. They will definitely sell better than last year in the comparable periods.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

DonFerrari said:
Eagle367 said:

You're right. I'm getting too excited. But 8mil in deDecemb has much more chance than 8mil the entire year considering smash and pokemon

Considering the only way I think Switch won't sell 8M this FY is end of the world (which would be lower than 1 in 1 billion), even if we think the chance of it selling 8M in December to be 0.001% or less it is still imensively more probable =p

My man! That's exactly what I'm saying



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Eagle367 said:
DonFerrari said:

Considering the only way I think Switch won't sell 8M this FY is end of the world (which would be lower than 1 in 1 billion), even if we think the chance of it selling 8M in December to be 0.001% or less it is still imensively more probable =p

My man! That's exactly what I'm saying

And I totally agree with you. Now let's see Switch break boundaries and make it happen



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

There's just no way that can be correct.



Yeah that's not his prediction, he knows the industry better than that. It's just miscommunication and confusion over what he says.