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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: Switch on track to sell only 8 million systems this Fiscal Year

Bofferbrauer2 on 20 August 2018
StarDoor said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

13M in the FY, the 2.8M from launch month don't count

However, while the shipment was lower, actual sales were higher since there was nothing on shelves April first last year, while this year the Switch was overstocked a bit. According to VGC tracking the Switch actually sold about 500k Q1 this year than last year (FY Q1, meaning April-June)

No, Switch did ship 15.05M in FY3/2018 in addition to the 2.74M in FY3/2017.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html

Yeah, my bad, I mixed it up in my head with the 13M at the end of last year



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Metroid33slayer on 20 August 2018

It's like he doesn't realise that Q1 is a weak quarter, does he really think that all quarters sell the same and that Q3 will not have a massive increase? He must know that, he is just playing dumb to troll people.



Wyrdness on 20 August 2018

He must be trolling otherwise he's in for a shock.



123Lucas on 20 August 2018

That's less than I expected.



Jumpin on 20 August 2018
Metroid33slayer said:
It's like he doesn't realise that Q1 is the weakest quarter, does he really think that all quarters sell the same and that Q3 will not have a massive increase? He must know that, he is just playing dumb to troll people.To what end.

More likely he’s just an idiot who’s only got a fake job because someone in his family is valuable to the company. I work in finance, I’ve come across a number of people with BS job positions to hide the fact that their job is essentially to kiss ass and wear a suit... an especially popular profession in New York (which I believe is his stomping ground).

Last edited by Jumpin - on 20 August 2018

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Mnementh on 20 August 2018
setsunatenshi said:
Mnementh said:

I'm under the impression, he might be more diligent then working for paying customers, then making wild speculations in an interview or in Youtube videos. The journalists adding the title analyst to his predictions do him wrong, as he makes these as a common forum dweller, not in his function as analyst.

The fact is Nintendo Labo bombed and many analysts were attributing the bullish expectations Nintendo set up for the fiscal year to that release. There is plenty of sense, and I agree, Nintendo will not hit their target estimates. Furthermore, without a price cut I think they will be not even close to hitting the expected sales figures. 

So I don't think it's just wild speculation on his part, but yeah people love to make mountains out of molehills when actually something pretty uncontroversial was said (and factual too). He's not saying Nintendo will only sell 8M, rather that they are on track to that figure based on the recent sales numbers and extrapolating based on that. Probably a more complete answer would be "Nintendo tracking to 8M, meaning it's very unlikely they will hit the 20M estimates they set out at the start" (don't remember if it was 20M, but it was somewhere around there).

First, I don't see Labo as a bomb, Nintendo sees sales in line with their expectations:

https://gonintendo.com/stories/311497-nintendo-labo-has-met-expectations-and-will-continue-to-be-supp

Now that can be some marketing BS, but I think many here who expected more saw Labo as some sort of Wii Sports, which it is certainly not. So, putting it on Labo is unjustified, it is pretty clear that Smash and Pokemon Let's Go are the titles that are intended to push sales.

Secondly, what he saying is no valid extrapolation. He is an analyst and knows well that Q3 will be much bigger than the other quarters. Linear extrapolation from Q1 is wrong - and Pachter knows that. So his 8M figure is just BS to gain attention (which worked). It is in no way correct extrapolation.

Where is one way to say it seems unlikely for Nintendo to hit 20M, and another to frame it with this ridiculous 8M number.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

xMetroid on 20 August 2018
JRPGfan said:
Dulfite said:
Lol, and I just read someone is now predicting 25 million. Pokemon and SSB gonna be huge.

Thats plain stupid too imo.
Its looking like Nintendo might have a hard time reaching the 20m they forecasted.
Expecting they beat that by 5m is unrealistic, its more likely nintendo lowers its forecasts (I think).


I think nintendo does ~19m this Fisical Year (about 1m lower than its current forecast).

We are just at the beginning of the fiscal year and Switch is having the best july of the gen in the US. If it keeps that momentum, when the big games will be coming in Q3 and Q4 it can sell a lot and compensate for the slow start which was due to low number of release and media coverage. 

 

Not saying 25 or 20 millions is happening but when you see momentum already picking up in July with almost no system seller and you see pokemon and Smash, Fire emblem on the horizon... idk. I think it is possible. 



Shaqazooloo0 on 20 August 2018

Pachter is an idiots. Shipping slightly less then the year before in one quarter (which resulted in a total of 15 million shipped for the fiscal year) somehow means they're on track to ship 7 million less?

contestgamer said:
Pachter has been right with MOST o his predictions for the past 10 years I've followed him. Sure, he's not right 100% of the time, but he's usually accurate, so this seems likely.                             

 

 

User warned - Bristow9091

Last edited by Bristow9091 - on 20 August 2018

Mnementh on 20 August 2018
HoloDust said:
Mnementh said:

I think he expected big success for WiiU.

Quite the opposite actually, IIRC, he had his doubts about it from the start and later "predicted" 20M lifetime.

Well, you're right and I'm too - because he basically predicted everything for WiiU.

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2013/03/pachter_wii_u_will_sell_between_30_to_50_million_units_during_its_lifetime

https://nintendotoday.com/michael-pachters-flip-flopping-wii-u/



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Wyrdness on 20 August 2018
Jumpin said:
Metroid33slayer said:
It's like he doesn't realise that Q1 is the weakest quarter, does he really think that all quarters sell the same and that Q3 will not have a massive increase? He must know that, he is just playing dumb to troll people.To what end.

More likely he’s just an idiot who’s only got a fake job because someone in his family is valuable to the company. I work in finance, I’ve come across a number of people with BS job positions to hide the fact that their job is essentially to kiss ass and wear a suit... an especially popular profession in New York (which I believe is his stomping ground).

You should see the chaos here in London in the financial sector.